Two primary arguments are put forward as ways of justifying various economicschemes for reducing oil and gas use (e.g., carbon pricing by way of taxes, subsidies for green energy, emissionstrading schemes):
(1) Anthropogenic catastrophic climate change will occur if humans do not reduce their use of fossil fuels and the associated greenhouse gas emissions that result from such activities.
(2) Peak global production of oil and gas has either occurred (or will imminently occur), and/or global peak reserves-to-production ratios for each carbon source have occurred (or will imminently occur). Thus, humans must retool theireconomic systems in order to adjust to a near-term resource limitation induced post-carbon economy.
Issue (1) has already been dealt with on many well-known climate science skeptic sites.
Issue (2) is simply not supported by the data.
According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy dataset, the global proved reserves of oil have increased steadily since the dataset began in 1980. Similarly, global oil production has increased steadily since the dataset begins in 1965, with an approximately linear increase since the early 1980s.
Dividing the global proved reserves for any given year by the global production rate for that year yields the R/P (reserves-to-production) ratio, which — as defined by BP — indicates where “[i]f the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.” One has, for several decades now, heard jokes along the lines of “the end of oil is always 20 years away.” Well, actually, the time period until the end of oil (using the global R/P ratio as the proxy) has been increasing steadily since 1980.