AMS: Weather, Water and Climate Priorities

Written by Dr. Judith Curry

An eminently sensible and constructive statement from the American Meteorological Society.

I just spotted this new policy statement from the American Meteorological Society:

Weather, Water and Climate Priorities

ams Understanding how the Earth system works and transforming this knowledge into action will allow our nation and the global community to effectively respond and adapt to changing weather, water, and climate conditions. National investment and leadership combined with enhanced partnerships across the public, private, academic, and nongovernmental organization sectors are necessary to make this vision a reality.

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Stellar outburst brings water snowline around a young star into view

Written by Lucas A. Cieza et al.

A violent outburst by the young star V883 Orionis has given astronomers using ALMA their first view of a water ‘snowline’ in a protoplanetary disk — the transition point around the star where the temperature and pressure are low enough for water ice to form.  water star

A violent outburst by the young star V883 Orionis has given astronomers their first view of a water “snowline” in a protoplanetary disk — the transition point around the star where the temperature and pressure are low enough for water ice to form.

An abrupt increase in the brightness of the star “flash heated” the inner portion of the disk, pushing the water snowline out much farther than normal, enabling astronomers to image it with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). Under normal conditions, the water snowline would be much too close to the protostar to observe directly, even with ALMA’s remarkable resolution.

Typically, heat from a young Sun-like star prevents water molecules from freezing within a radius of about three astronomical units, around 450 million kilometers, from the star. (An astronomical unit — AU — is the average distance from the Earth to the Sun). Beyond that point, known as the snowline, water condenses to form a layer of ice on dust grains and other particles.

An abrupt and powerful increase in the brightness of V883 Orionis, however, has pushed the water snowline out to approximately 40 AU (about 6 billion kilometers), a distance that corresponds roughly to the orbit of Pluto in our solar system.

Even though V883 Orionis is only 30 percent more massive than our Sun, it is currently 400 times more luminous and much hotter, thanks to its recent outburst triggered by material from the disk falling onto the surface of the star.

“The ALMA observations came as a surprise to us,” said Lucas Cieza, an astronomer at Diego Portales University, Santiago, Chile, and lead author of a paper describing these results published in the journal Nature. “Our observations were designed to image disk fragmentation, which is one of the proposed mechanisms for the formation of giant planets. We saw none of that, as the disk is probably too warm to fragment despite its very large mass. Instead, we found what looks like a ring at 40 AU. This illustrates well the transformational power of ALMA, which delivers exciting results even if they are not the ones we were looking for.”

“The distribution of water ice around a young star is fundamental to planet formation and even the development of life on Earth. ALMA’s observation sheds important light on how and where this happens in protoplanetary disks when young planets are still forming,” said Zhaohuan Zhu, an astronomer at Princeton University, New Jersey, and co-author on the paper. “We now have direct evidence that a frosty region conducive to planet formation exists around other stars.”

Water ice helps regulate the agglomeration of dust grains into larger and larger particles. Astronomers believe that within the snowline, where water is vaporized, conditions favor the formation of smaller, rocky planets like Mars and Earth. Outside the water snowline, the presence of ice allows for the rapid formation of snowballs and cometary bodies, which facilitate the formation of massive gaseous planets such as Jupiter.

“Since water ice is more abundant than dust itself beyond the snowline, planets can aggregate more solid material and form bigger and faster there. In this way, giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn can form before the protoplanetary disk is gone,” noted Zhu.

The discovery that these outbursts may blast the water snow line to about 10 times its typical radius is very significant to the development of reliable planetary formation models. Such outbursts are believed to be a stage in the evolution of most planetary systems, so this may be the first observation of a common occurrence. In that case, this direct observation from ALMA could contribute substantially to an improved understanding of how planets throughout the Universe form and evolve. It also sheds light on how water ice may have been distributed in our own protoplanetary disk.

The star V883 Orionis is located approximately 1,350 light-years from Earth in the Orion Nebula Cluster. At this distance, ALMA was able to achieve a resolution of about 12 AU — enough to resolve the water snowline in this system but insufficient to do so around a typical young star.


Story Source:

The above post is reprinted from materials provided by National Radio Astronomy Observatory. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Lucas A. Cieza, Simon Casassus, John Tobin, Steven P. Bos, Jonathan P. Williams, Sebastian Perez, Zhaohuan Zhu, Claudio Caceres, Hector Canovas, Michael M. Dunham, Antonio Hales, Jose L. Prieto, David A. Principe, Matthias R. Schreiber, Dary Ruiz-Rodriguez, Alice Zurlo.Imaging the water snow-line during a protostellar outburst. Nature, 2016; 535 (7611): 258 DOI: 10.1038/nature18612

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New Paper: Lower Arctic Sea Level Rise Estimated At Only 1.5 Millimeters Per Year!

Written by P Gosselin

A brand new paper is out on sea level, and guess what? The findings show that sea level is going nowhere fast and that in the Arctic it is rising only half as fast as the much IPCC ballyhooed satellite altimetry measured 3.3 mm/year and accelerating rise. arctic sea ice

Authors: Peter Limkilde Svendsen, Ole B. Andersen, Allan Aasbjerg Nielsen
Accepted manuscript online: 13 July 2016Full publication history
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC011685View/save citation

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Evaluating The Integrity Of Official Climate Records

Written by Tony Heller

Tony Heller of http://realclimatescience.com/ makes a compelling climate change presentation at the 34th Annual Meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (July 9, 2016 in Omaha, Nebraska). Heller, a respected skeptical climate analyst deftly uses a swathe of verified archive material to demonstrate how national temperature records and scientific evidence has been systematically altered, hidden and corruptly misrepresented by government-sponsored climate alarmists. This fact-filled 54 minute video presentation leaves viewers in no doubt that scaremongering about global warming does not stand up to scrutiny.

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Federal Study Blows Up Green Claim That Fracking Poisons Water

Written by Andrew Follett, dailycaller.com

Natural sources of methane are far more likely to contaminate groundwater than hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, according to a National Science Foundation (NSF) funded study published Monday. fracking

The study examined methane levels in groundwater supplies going back 25 years and determined that biologically generated methane and naturally occurring coal were the primary sources of methane in groundwater.

The research also disproves environmental claims that methane from fracking causes tap-water to flame.

“This latest study is another blow to the credibility of anti-fossil fuel activists have made water contamination a central claim in their case against fracking despite being consistently debunked by science,” Randy Hildreth, the Colorado Director of the pro-industry group Energy In Depth, told The Daily Caller News Foundation. “None of the cases of contamination researchers looked at in Colorado’s DJ Basin were attributed to wells using hydraulic fracturing and modern horizontal drilling techniques under today’s regulations.”

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GLOBAL WARMING PAUSE CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET

Written by Thomas Richard

Satellite temperatures show no statistical difference with June 2016 temperatures and 1998’s, showing a steep drop in global temps once El Nino ended.

According to the now-finalized RSS satellite-derived June 2016 temperatures, measurements show that the global warming pause (or hiatus) is on track to resume with a prediction for even lower temps this winter. For June 2016, The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) RSS satellite record showed Earth was only 0.46 degrees Celsius (0.84°F) above the 30-year average, a marked decline since its peak in February 2016.

UAH trmps

They also show worldwide temperatures dropping a full half a degree Celsius since their peak and are actually below 1998 levels for the past three months. The RSS data is also on par with the UAH satellite dataset (see graph above). Once the El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean officially stopped, NOAA also showed a precipitous decline in temperatures using land and sea-based measuring systems.

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What Is Good Science?

Written by Dr Jerry L Krause

In a response to Dr. Tim Ball’s article—John L. Daly: A Giant of Early Climate Skepticism—I closed my comments with the following.

“Richard Feynman has proposed a scattering theory of solar radiation by cloud droplets that I seldom, if ever, read as being considered.  Feynman and other theoretical physicists have proposed that a general rule is that a good absorber is a good reflector. science In the context of meteorology and climate I have seldom, if ever, read this rule being considered.  And according to Feynman:  “Einstein assumed that there are three kinds of processes:  an absorption proportional to the intensity of light, an emission proportional to the intensity of light, called induced emission or sometimes stimulated emission, and a spontaneous emission independent of light.”  In the context of the ‘greenhouse effect’ I have seldom, if ever, read about this assumption of Einstein’s.

“Why?  My answer is too many people enjoy debating the intelligence of others than in doing good science themselves.”

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The Spark Plug Jungle (on the lighter side)

Written by Dr Klaus L E Kaiser

Just hope you don’t need to replace the spark plugs of any internal combustion engine-driven implement (like lawn mowers, weed cutters, or chain saws) that may be a few years old. You could be in for a rude surprise. spark plug

The model number found on your old plug type has likely changed – repeatedly – regardless of its age and manufacturer. That’s when your replacement needs start to become a problem. The same type of plug may still be manufactured and even in stock at the store. However, trying to find the current replacement model-number is akin to finding the proverbial needle in the haystack. In addition, there are more manufacturers of such things now, each using their own and frequently changing numbering systems (an updated version will be available soon).

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Pumping iron: Lighter weights just as effective as heavier weights to gain muscle, build strength

Written by McMaster University

New research from McMaster University is challenging traditional workout wisdom, suggesting that lifting lighter weights many times is as efficient as lifting heavy weights for fewer repetitions.

It is the latest in a series of studies that started in 2010, contradicting the decades-old message that the best way to build muscle is to lift heavy weights. pumping iron

“Fatigue is the great equalizer here,” says Stuart Phillips, senior author on the study and professor in the Department of Kinesiology. “Lift to the point of exhaustion and it doesn’t matter whether the weights are heavy or light.”

Researchers recruited two groups of men for the study — all of them experienced weight lifters — who followed a 12-week, whole-body protocol. One group lifted lighter weights (up to 50 per cent of maximum strength) for sets ranging from 20 to 25 repetitions. The other group lifted heavier weights (up to 90 per cent of maximum strength) for eight to 12 repetitions. Both groups lifted to the point of failure.

Researchers analyzed muscle and blood samples and found gains in muscle mass and muscle fibre size, a key measure of strength, were virtually identical.

“At the point of fatigue, both groups would have been trying to maximally activate their muscle fibres to generate force,” says Phillips, who conducted the work with graduate students and co-authors Rob Morton and Sara Oikawa.

While researchers stress that elite athletes are unlikely to adopt this training regime, it is an effective way to get stronger, put on muscle and generally improve health.

“For the ‘mere mortal’ who wants to get stronger, we’ve shown that you can take a break from lifting heavy weights and not compromise any gains,” says Phillips. “It’s also a new choice which could appeal to the masses and get people to take up something they should be doing for their health.”

Another key finding was that none of the strength or muscle growth were related to testosterone or growth hormone, which many believe are responsible for such gains.

“It’s a complete falsehood that the short-lived rise in testosterone or growth hormone is a driver of muscle growth,” says Morton. “It’s just time to end that kind of thinking.”

Researchers suggest, however, that more work remains to be done in this area, including what underlying mechanisms are at work and in what populations does this sort of program work.

The findings are published online in the Journal of Applied Physiology.


Story Source:

The above post is reprinted from materials provided by McMaster University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Robert W. Morton, Sara Y. Oikawa, Christopher G. Wavell, Nicole Mazara, Chris McGlory, Joe Quadrilatero, Brittany L. Baechler, Steven K. Baker, Stuart M. Phillips. Neither load nor systemic hormones determine resistance training-mediated hypertrophy or strength gains in resistance-trained young men. Journal of Applied Physiology, 2016; 121 (1): 129 DOI: 10.1152/japplphysiol.00154.2016

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‘2016 Hottest Year Ever’ Climate Fraud Exposed

Written by Tony Heller

Climate experts tell us that this is the hottest year ever, and that the frequency of hot days is rapidly increasing.

On this date in 1936, Hartington, Nebraska was 118 degrees (48C.)  During July, 1936 their average maximum temperature was 40C (104F.)

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Danish Scientist Targets Claim that Gulf Stream is Slowing

Written by Tom Richard, Breitbart News

A Danish climatologist is pouring cold water over another misleading global warming claim.

Thermographic images released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last year showed a mysterious blue blob of cold seawater off the coast of southern Greenland and Iceland. At the time, researchers said the cold blob was likely the result of melting from Greenland’s vast ice sheet, with cold water flowing into the nearby Labrador Sea.

This meltwater was presumed to have slowed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), or Gulf Stream, that sustains temperate weather in much of western Europe, our East Coast, and the UK.

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Atmospheric Heat Engines—Global Atmospheric Circulation

Written by Dr Jerry L Krause

C. Sutcliffe (Weather and Climate) wrote:  “It was from the study of the prevailing winds as they were observed, especially the surface winds from the days of world exploration in sailing ships, that the concept of the general circulation of the atmosphere, the most important concept in the whole of meteorology, arose.”sutcliffe

And, “If the general circulation is, by definition, a matter of average winds of the world it immediately embraces all the other major physical quantities and physical processes.  One cannot go far in the study of winds without introducing the driving force, the pressure; and one cannot go far in the study of pressure without introducing air density and air temperature for the pressure of the air above.  Again the study of temperature introduces energy and its transformation, the absorption and emission of radiation, evaporation and condensation and the conversion of latent heat:  vertical motions introduce clouds and rainfall, and so on until the whole of weather science is drawn into the argument.  Thus, a complete understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere implies a complete understanding of every process in world climatology and it is for this reason that it may justifiably be called the central problem of the science.”

If I were to ask—What is the prime mover of this atmospheric circulation?, what might one answer?  In C. Donald Ahrens very popular meteorology textbook—Meteorology Today 9th Ed—I find the statement:  “We know the primary cause of the atmosphere’s general circulation is the unequal heating that occur between tropical and polar regions.” 

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Top Russian Scientist: ‘fear a deep temperature drop — not global warming’

Written by PSI staff

The sun defines the climate, not carbon dioxide. So says eminent Russian space scientist, Habibullo Abdussamatov (Dr. Sc. – Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory). Also Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria, Abdussamatov (pictured) is featured on page 140 of the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming. habibullo

Below Dr Abdussamatov explains why carbon dioxide is “insignificant” in climate change (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock).

Key Excerpts: Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is “not guilty” and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. […] Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. […]

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Global Population Falling as Human Fertility Declines

Written by Max Roser, University of Oxford

Global human population is on the decline. The fertility of half of the world’s population is already below the replacement ratio, according to a new study from the University of Oxford. The latest facts run counter to the traditional story of an out of control soaring world population.

In a comprehensive data study entitled ‘Fertility’ found in full at OurWorldInData.org researcher Max Roser reports, “The decline of fertility is one of the most fundamental social changes that happened in human history.” He adds, “The richer the people, the lower the fertility.”

Below are selected extracts:

The first chart shows the total fertility rate for the entire world population at 5 different points in time. The total fertility rate is the number of children born per woman. More specifically, it tells you the average number of children that would be born to a woman (who would live until the end of her childbearing years) if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime.

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Are we too scared of radiation?

Written by Helen Briggs, BBC

It’s more than five years since the earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Japan caused a huge leak of radioactive material into the world’s oceans.

Workers battled to prevent the Fukushima nuclear plant going into complete meltdown and radiation levels rose by a factor of tens of millions.

However, a new report by Australian scientists has revealed that radiation in the Pacific Ocean is rapidly returning to normal and should be at its previous level by 2020. So what does this say about radiation and us?

Time has stood still around the Fukushima nuclear plant, with homes and possessions abandoned – perhaps forever.

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