Over the next 15 to 20 years Europe will get colder
The latest scientific studies show Europe’s temperature will drop slightly for the next 15-20 years. The media reaction? Absolute silence
This is due to a weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation and a cooling of the North Atlantic. The next warming phase will begin in about 2050. This natural cycle has nothing to do with CO2. As Professor Fritz Vahrenholt explains, global warming is going to pause as the North Atlantic cools.
Prof. Vahrenholt is the former Chairman of the German Wildlife Foundation. From 1991-1997 he was the Environment Senator of the City State of Hamburg.
The unusually mild weather at the turn of the year in Central Europe has strengthened the belief of many in Germany that CO2-induced global warming is in full swing. Globally – and this is the only thing that matters – temperatures are developing in a different direction.
If we take the average of the last years, the global temperature has been constant for 8 years and 4 months.
In December, the deviation of the global temperature from the 30-year average of the satellite-based measurements of the University of Alabama (UAH) dropped again, to 0.05 degrees Celsius. To be sure, there is a long-term temperature increase through 2015. But it has averaged only 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade since 1979.
Some climate science heavyweights recently caused a stir in the Nature journal ‘Climate and Atmospheric Science’.
Katja Matthes, director of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Johann Jungclaus of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg and Nour-Eddine Omrani of the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for climate research published a study showing that we are facing a weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a cooling of the North Atlantic and a related global temperature development as between 1950 and 1970 (the authors say in their summary).
The graph below shows the decline in North Atlantic temperatures by 2040, but because of the global warming trend, temperatures are not falling back to 1950-1970 levels, explains one of the authors, Eddine Omrani. The expected pause in warming gives us time, Omrani says, to work out technical, political and economic solutions before the next warming phase, which will take over again from about 2050.
Why is the coming cooling in Europe not being reported?
It is astonishing that so far not a single German daily newspaper has reported on this encouraging message.
In contrast, the apocalyptic delusion of the “last generation” financed with American foundation money receives wide space and benevolent judges. Hardly anyone questions the false narrative of the people who glue themselves to the street to protest.
Those who suppress such news of impending cooling are complicit in the politically induced destruction of our society.
What did Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) say recently in Qatar? He needs natural gas in the next few years, but in 7 years he won’t need it anymore, because Germany will get out of gas by then anyway. Why does he want to get out if it becomes not warmer in the next 20 years in Europe, but rather colder? Won’t we need even more gas than today if it cools down?
The publication of the climate researchers from Kiel, Hamburg, Bergen, Venice and Houston brings us another important insight. The warming of the years 1980 to 2015 was significantly influenced by the warm phase of the Atlantic Ocean.
We can estimate that a significant part of the warming can be attributed to this natural cycle. This period is used, among other things, to make temperature forecasts into the future. However, the models attribute the natural warming contribution to the CO2 effect.
This incorrectly calculated, higher CO2 effect is carried forward into the future. Models that do not take into account the natural cyclical influences – and the models are not yet able to do so – thus arrive at warming forecasts that are far too strong.
It should not go unmentioned that there are a number of publications (such as this one involving Matthes and Omrani, Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability) that consider a coupling of the strength of solar cycles with the North Atlantic Oscillation as likely.
The last solar cycle from 2008 to 2019 was the weakest in 100 years. The current cycle so far is shaping up to be just as weak. The one-dimensionality of the climate and energy debate, culminating in the claim that CO2 emissions alone determine our climate, is quite frightening.
Conference in Hamburg
The congress “Save our industry” is taking place today in the hotel Elysee in Hamburg. Participants will include Michael Shellenberger, Prof. Patzelt, Prof. Koch, Dr. Pillkahn, Prof. Mayer, Roland Tichy and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt.
The event can be found HERE. Unfortunately, it was already fully booked two weeks after the announcement; more are being planned. However, the Hamburg event can be followed HERE.
Prof. Vahrenholt’s new book: ‘Die Grosse Energiekrise – und wie wir sie bewältigen können’ (English transl. ‘The Great Energy Crisis – and How We Can Manage It’) will be published on 17 February.
The book will be presented at a press conference at the German Press Club in Berlin together with Otto Schily, former Federal Minister. The book has 207 pages and costs EUR22. The book is published by LangenMüller Verlag.
See more here expose-news.com
Header image: Cap Allon
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T. C. Clark
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Al Gore doesn’t care about this temporary cooling…he says the oceans are boiling and rain bombs falling and refugees are calling….aren’t you scared? Al and John Kerry are living comfortable but they are concerned about you….aren’t you scared? Both say that if you listen and act according to their instructions…..you may be saved.
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Alan Stewart
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One might also consider the Milankovitch cycles. We are close to the end of a normal 10 to 15k interglacial. An energy cycle has been set in motion and a repeat of the previous glaciations should certainly be considered.
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sunsettommy
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Actually, Earth has been cooling for around 3,400 years since the last Minoan Peak with successive warm peak lower than the previous peak based on the GISP2 ice core data.
https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0133f64fd3c5970b-pi
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Matt Holl
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A relevant issue with the Milankovitch cycles is if Earth to sun Perihelion is during the spring equinox then as the sun returns through the autumn equinox it is at aphelion. (Earth furthest from earth)
Currently aphelion is at the peak of the southern summer so in effect the sun is near aphelion as it swings south for southern summer solstice and is at aphelion as it swings to head North again. In other words the tropical and southern ocean are receiving a near twice aphelion maximum heating effect.
The aphelion date advances by one day in every seventy odd years so the double wammy effect will slowly diminish. One contributing factor in nonlinear chaos.
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Matt Holl
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Correction. Currently the perihelion is at the peak of southern summer. No good when I cannot trust myself to get the simple things correct.
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Robert Beatty
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IMO the global weather pattern has two components. One is the Milankovitch cycle, the other is submarine tectonic activity. The latter we have no handle on at this stage. However, we can monitor its effect through the atmospheric concentration of CO2 (see Henry’s Law) – which is still rising. So we have rapidly cooling land masked by rising sea surface temperature. My view is that land cooling will become obvious by 2025.
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Kevin Doyle
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Robert,
I would agree Milankovitch Cycle is relevant because ALL heating of the Earth, and the other planets in our solar system, is from the Sun. Heating of the Ocean is also from the Sun. Having lived in the Caribbean for the past two decades, I can assure you the ocean temperature in Antigua is no different than it was 100 years ago. The British Navy kept quite consistent records.
The greater question to ask our German research friends, “How exactly does any gas at 5,000 meter elevation, below freezing, warm the surface and oceans of the Earth?”
If any cold gas could do this, then the Laws of Thermodynamics would be proved wrong…
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V8
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Germany won’t need any natural gas in 7 years that’s amazing I wonder what will they replace it with, delusional people.
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Koen Vogel
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While I agree that cooling is a distinct, even likely, possibility, the model you present is a fairly simple second-order polynomial through the UAH data, which – if valid – only presents a single cycle of the warming-cooling-warming. The IPCC models – your competitor – are much more sophisticated, which is likely why the press are ignoring it: it’s armchair science pitted against climate scientists. If you want to present a more convincing you’ll need a physical model detailing why the North Atlantic is cooling and how the AMO is responding. And to those armchair scientists quoting Milankovitch cycles: please stop.The 12,000 year Milankovitch cycle has very little to do with decadal temperature changes: the possible impacts are orders of magnitude smaller than what is required.
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MattH
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Koen Vogel’s comment is quite unfortunate.
None of the commenters appear to be attributing Milankovitch cycles to the AMO but to long term warming. Definitely in my case.
As for stating “The 12,000 year Milankovitch cycle has very little to do with decadal temperature changes”. There is no 12,000-year Milankovitch cycle.
Do these sophisticated models for the multidecadal temperature oscillations include the 18.6 year major lunar standstill cycle. Apart from Doctor Krause I have barely seen this clearly significant observable contributor mentioned in regard to the real-world climate.
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MattH
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?
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Moffin
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The lunar major standstill coincides with a trough in the global temperature oscillation. The lunar minor standstill coincides with El-Nino temperature peaks. 1931 is the anomaly.
The next major standstill is in 2025 which will coincide with a trough in global temperatures. This because the Major standstill causes more latitudinal tidal oceanic mixing than the minor standstill.
The Major Standstill
The Moon reaches its most maximum declination of 29 degrees N and S when in the appropriate signs. Since it takes 14 days between the maximum northern and southern points, the Moon’s daily changes in position are quite dramatic at this time. It will reach its maximum declination for 2 – 5 days twice a month for about 3 years around the time of the major standstill.
The Minor Standstill
Nine years later, the Moon reaches its minor standstill. It follows exactly the same monthly motion pattern, however now it only reaches a maximum of 18 degrees declination for the 3 year period.
Armchair scientists are not paid therefore not corrupted.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH,
Thank you for reminding me of what the “lunar standstill cycle” is. I am reading feeling my age and need a lot of help. However, we need to remind PSI readers that one well known natural phenomenon that this cycle subtly influences is ocean tides.
Have a good day, Jerry
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH,
Had not read”. “Armchair scientists are not paid therefore not corrupted.” “Science is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one’s living at it.” (Einstein). He got his start as a patent clerk, so his knowledge is based upon his experiences.
Have a good day, Jerry
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