New Study: Sea-Level Rise The Same Since 1958 As From 1900-2018
A new analysis of global sea-level rise rates concludes the rising trend was 1.56 mm/yr−¹ from 1900-2018.
This is the same rate as for 1958-2014 (1.5 mm/yr−¹), indicating there has not been a long-term distinctive change in sea-level rise rates in the last 120 years. In 2018, Frederikse et al. assessed the contributing factors to long-term sea-level rise from 1958 to 2014.
They determined ice melt and thermal expansion combined to add 1.3 mm/yr−¹ to sea levels during this period, and the overall rate of sea-level rise was 1.5 mm/yr−¹.
Then, in a study published last August, Frederikse et al. (2020) assessed global sea-level rise rates and its sum of contributors since 1900.
Interestingly, they found the rates of sea-level rise were effectively the same for the entire 1900 to 2018 period (1.56 mm/yr−¹) as they were from 1958-2014 (1.5 mm/yr−¹).
The overall long-term trend in sea-level rise has undergone an oscillation: high rates in the 1930s and 1940s, a slowdown during the 1960s and 1970s, and then a return to high rates in recent decades.
It’s interesting to note that the ice-melt contribution to sea-level rise – including the ice-melt contribution from the Greenland ice sheet – was higher in the 1930s and 1940s than it has been during the last few decades.
In fact, the contribution from total ice-mass loss from glaciers was higher for the entire 1900-2018 period (0.70 mm/yr−¹) than it has been since 1957 (0.52 mm/yr−¹), suggesting a relative slowdown.
Neither of these trends – the multi-decadal oscillation in rates or higher ice-mass contribution prior to 1950 – would appear to correlate well with the linearly accelerated rise in CO2 emissions since the 1940s.
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Doug Harrison
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I have, as a self educated old man, known about this for a decade. You may try to write something about it in your local newspaper but they will not print it. In New Zealand we have a continuous blast of government sponsored propaganda about sea level rise and how it is going to cost billions to mitigate by moving people away from so called vulnerable areas All the while, in fact there may be as much as 130mm of rise in the next 100 years which you can be sure nobody would notice if it were not for this alarmist propaganda. I have stopped listening to and watching the news as it is just wall to wall propaganda about covid and climate alarmism.
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MattH
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Hi Doug.
With President Trump gone you will soon see a lot of new research stating how climate, sea level, etc , is a lot worse than previous studies had suggested.
The alarmism will follow the math of quantum theory. Ten times the panic.
Enjoy the balmy weather. Matt
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Templar
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The seas and oceans to the east of Australia form the largest body of water on Earth. A structure located in the middle of Sydney Harbour (Fort Denison) has been recording mean sea level data since the early 1850s. The Bureau of Meteorology commenced recording mean sea level at Fort Dension in 1914. The MSL in 1914 was 1.11 metres. In 2019 it was 1.05 metres … 6 centimetres lower than in 1914. These levels relate to Chart Datum which is at the lowest spring tide level.
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