New Paper Finds No connection between CO2 and temperature

Written by Kenneth Richard on October 2, 2023. Posted in Current News

New research published in the MDPI journal atmosphere by Dr. Stuart A. Harris asserts past and modern climatic changes are natural and not driven by atmospheric CO2

Some key points from the paper include:

• Past and modern climate change is driven by solar cycle (Milankovitch) variations and their affect on ocean circulation and heat transport.

• Throughout the last hundreds of thousands of years, temperature changes precede the lagging changes in CO2.

• The UN IPCC position that atmospheric CO2 is the cause of the warming since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is only an assumption that is “not consistent with studies involving changes in temperature in rural areas of the northern [NH] hemisphere.”

• The natural 23 thousand year (23 ka) Milankovitch cycle has begun to reduce insolation in the northern hemisphere “starting in 2020,” and this “heralds the start of the next glaciation.”

• CO2 is essential for life on Earth (photosynthesis), and a reduction in CO2 would be harmful to the biosphere. On the other hand, there “seems to be no connection between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth.”

Editor’s note: I reproduce a few salient parts of the Harris paper below.

It is now known that solar radiation supplies more than 99.95 percent of the total energy driving the world’s climate [7].

The fact that the bulk of the solar radiation arrives on the surface of the Earth along the zone between the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer, decreasing towards the Poles, results in a tremendous imbalance of initial heat distribution around the globe.

The amount of solar heating at the polar latitudes throughout the year varies greatly, with the polar latitudes receiving considerably more solar energy in the summer than in the winter, when they receive no solar heat at all.

As a result, in the winter hemisphere, the difference in solar heating between the equator and that pole is very large. This causes the large-scale circulation patterns observed in the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere.

The difference in solar heating between day and night also drives the strong diurnal cycle of surface temperature over land.

Dry air has a low heat capacity, but air can carry moisture in the form of water vapor, water droplets, or snow. Where water droplets are involved, the quantity of water carried can be enormous in Monsoons and Hurricanes.

Accordingly, warm ocean currents and Hurricanes are the main carriers of heat from the Tropics towards the polar regions [8]. There can also be “rivers of water” carried to land areas by Monsoons in subtropical areas.

The coldest temperatures reported to date come from Antarctica, where there was a sudden decrease in winter temperatures in 2018 to set a new cold daily record of −98 °C [15].

Due to its being roughly circular and located over the South Pole, the main ice cap remains cold throughout the year and is surrounded by an ice-cold sea. The circum-Antarctic current acts as a buffer between it and the other southern continents.

The IPCC argues that carbon dioxide coming from industrial plants controls the air temperature [16,17] (see Section 3.5).

Certainly, deforestation, logging, agriculture, and urbanization have altered the albedo on land, but these changes do not produce sufficiently large temperature changes to be significant when compared with the quantity of solar radiation reaching the surface of the Earth.

They may, however, cause substantial changes in precipitation, as in the case of Costa Rica, where deforestation of 85 percent of the rain forest resulted in a reduction in precipitation of c.30 percent.

There is a marked difference between the warming of cities by the heat island effect and the rural areas of the northern hemisphere, which have not shown marked warming during the last 10 years [18,19,20,21].

The IPCC is sponsored by the United Nations Organization and consists of selected climate scientists from several different countries. Their proposal in 1988 [17] is that human activities have resulted in increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, causing an increase in global temperature that overrides all other causes.

It is assumed that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution is the cause of the warming [17].

This is not consistent with studies involving changes in temperature in rural areas of the northern hemisphere [18,19] or in much of the southern hemisphere.

No consideration is given to the fact that as the water in the oceans warms, the carbon dioxide dissolved in it decreases in solubility, and degassing takes place.

This degassing from the oceans is slow and matches the increase in temperature of the upper 2000 m of the North Atlantic Ocean, at any rate for the data for that location since 1910.

The relationship of carbon dioxide to atmospheric air temperature has been widely discussed [44], and it has been shown that temperature changes precede changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the case of Antarctic cores [45,46].

An obvious problem is found when examining the map of the distribution of climate change (mean yearly air temperature) obtained by NASA from satellites (Figure 5). The main areas of warming are in Northern Canada and the Arctic, with lesser warming in the Sahara and the Australian Outback!

Eastern China and Germany show no obvious warming. Obviously, this does not fit in with the main industrial centers in the world!

Since atmospheric carbon dioxide is present in extremely low quantities and has a narrow band of wavelengths that it absorbs, it cannot possibly compete in effect with the much larger total solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface.

It is a colorless, odorless gas with a molecular weight of 44 and is therefore mainly held down in the lower part of the atmosphere by gravity.

Thus, models that assume that carbon dioxide rises to the outer portion of the atmosphere are unrealistic.

Water, in all its phases, is a much more potent agent for moving heat around the globe.

Climate change has a considerable effect on the finances and future economic problems faced by countries [54]. The current policies seem to be based primarily on the ideas promoted by the IPCC.

Unfortunately, these are not soundly based on the science regarding the climate challenges facing Mankind. An example is the use of climatic data from ground temperature cables along the Trans Alaska Pipeline route instead of those from the Class 1 weather stations that are run by the US Government.

Heat loss from the pipeline causes the air temperatures adjacent to it to be significantly higher than elsewhere. The IPCC used the pipeline data to claim that all of NW North America was suffering from climate warming, but the Class 1 US weather stations do not show any such long-term changes.

Instead, they are controlled by the North Pacific Oscillation.

There is considerable confusion among the Public as to whether we are facing global warming based on the effects of industrialization affecting the whole world or climatic change caused by external factors such as the Milankovitch cycles modified by local Geographic factors.

Although the Milankovitch cycles are widely accepted [55,56,57], they are ignored by the IPCC.

Carbon dioxide is a gas that is of fundamental importance to life as we know it. If its concentration in the atmosphere becomes too low, the bulk of the living things on the surface of the Earth will die, and the surface will become as barren as the other planets in the solar system [31,43].

There seems to be no connection between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth [14,19,28,29,43,44,45,46].

Accordingly, the policies used by policymakers need to be changed to eliminate the burial of carbon dioxide underground, not provide large sums of public money to foreign firms to build battery factories, and realize that we will still need the oil and gas industry in the future.

It is an essential part of the economy, and in the future, any necessary pipelines should not be seriously considered. The gas tax should be eliminated.

The climate of the Earth is driven by the uneven solar heating of the surface of the Earth and the movements of the excess heat in the tropics towards the cooler polar regions, primarily by the movements of ocean currents, modified by the movements of air masses.

Bold emphasis added to the above quotes. The full paper can be seen here mdpi.com

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