New Data Confirms Weakening Of The Gulf Stream
A new study in Geophysical Research Letters reveals that the Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has weakened by some four percent over the past 40 years — more than what would be expected from random variations
This research, which is based on a synthesis of thousands of data points collected from the Florida Straits, marks the first definitive evidence of a significant change in the current.
The Gulf Stream is a powerful ocean current off the East Coast of the US.
It is a major component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC transports a vast volumes of seawater–and along with it heat, and other ocean constituents–around the Atlantic ocean.
It is a key player in Earth’s climate system, influencing phenomena as seemingly unrelated as sea level along coastal Florida and temperature and precipitation over continental Europe.
A slew of recent studies have hinted that both the Gulf Stream and the AMOC are showing signs of weakening, which is cause for concern given their vital roles in regulating global and regional climates.
Europeans should be among the keenest to examine the recent findings, because without the AMOC’s constant conveyor belt of warmth it is theorized that the continent would be plunged into ice age conditions, practically overnight.
As explained by the study’s lead author, Chris Piecuch: This weakening of the Gulf Stream, a critical part of the AMOC, could have far-reaching implications, including changes in European surface air temperature and precipitation, shifts in coastal sea levels along the Southeastern US, and altered patterns of North Atlantic hurricane activity.
The study is comprehensive, too.
It employed Bayesian modeling techniques to combine data from undersea cables, satellite altimetry, and in-situ observations. This probabilistic approach allowed the researchers to articulate the uncertainty within the model, strengthening the study’s findings.
The results consistently indicated a long-term weakening of the Gulf Stream, irrespective of which data sets were included or omitted from the analysis.
“This paper explicitly demonstrates the value of these long observing systems to tease out very subtle signals,” added Piecuch. “In this case, we showed that we needed more than 30 years of data.”
While the study provides strong evidence of weakening, it does not identify the cause.
Still, the study has been lauded as a significant milestone in oceanographic research.
Lisa Beal, co-author and a professor of Ocean Sciences at the University of Miami: “I have been studying western boundary currents–primarily the Agulhas Current off South Africa–for 30 years and it is only now that we are able to observe a robust trend in one of these extraordinarily dynamic systems.”
Many recent studies have concluded that the AMOC is weakening, though this paper is considered the first definitive evidence.
Moreover, many ‘guesses’ for the current’s collapse have been issued over the years, with the general consensus being ‘unlikely before the end of the century’.
However, a new study in Nature, published July 25, 2023, marks the first time that researchers have attempted to pin down when the AMOC could stop working — anytime between 2025 and 2095, was their conclusion.
If the AMOC were to collapse the consequences would be cold, dire and far-reaching.
This evidence points to a weakening current, while the cycles suggest a return to the COLD TIMES is due.
Is a stalling of the AMOC the key Earth-bound mechanism that gets us there, perhaps ‘helped’ by an immense freshwater discharge from the Beaufort Gyre?
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Kevin Doyle
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So, on one hand the Gulf Stream is weakening, which will cause Europeans to freeze?
On the other hand, Europeans are complaining the weather is too hot?
Could all you folks who write these ‘scientific papers’ please look up the definition of ‘Schizophrenic’?
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Charles Higley
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Cooling is occurring and water becomes more viscous and thus flows slower, also delivering less heat to Europe. This is not a surprise, except for the alarmist claims that everything is heating. Reality is not conforming to their desires. It’s a negative feedback for Europe.
In warmer oceans, Gulf Stream viscosity decreases and it flows faster and delivers more heat, which would be a positive feedback example.
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sunsettommy
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It isn’t going to collapse since there are too many forces in place to generate the flows in the first place sure it can oscillate just like the rest of the weather/climate systems has.
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Herb Rose
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The Gulf Stream is a result of the Atlantic Equatorial current being directed north by the coast of Brazil. The Atlantic Equatorial Current is the result of the Earth spinning at 1000 mph and the inertia of water. The heat it contains is a result or the energy output of the sun. The change of water’s viscosity is insignificant and any slowing would result in the water being exposed to the sun for a longer tome period.
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Howdy
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“the first definitive evidence of a significant change in the current”
Overall, still meaningless if the previous history of the Gulf stream is not known. It’s a natural event, subject to natural changes.
Like so many other things, cyclicity suggests it is nothing new.
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Kevin Doyle
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Herb and Howdy,
You forgot to mention all sea waves are created by wind. The prevailing ‘Trade Winds’ are what makes the current speed from Africa across the tropical north Atlantic Ocean, wind 15-25 knots, and current about 2-3 knots. Quite breezy out there. The Sun makes the warmth of the ocean. When you force warm, wind swept water into a bowl called the Gulf of Mexico, it has no choice but to get squeezed by the Caribbean westward current north of Cuba to go up the coast of Florida.
So, unless the Earth stopped spinning, or the Sun isn’t shining so much, or the Trade Winds stopped blowing so much, then this story is complete nonsense.
Fiction…
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Herb Rose
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Hi Kevin,
There is a difference between waves and currents. Wind act on the surface and produce waves while currents are a result of the movement of water. The wind can strip the top layer oswater off but the current will continue to flow in the same direction regardless of the direction of the wind. It is the spinning of the Earth and water’s inertia that propels the water from Africa to Brazil and up the east coast but the current from the flow of the Mississippi is what empties the Gulf of Mexico and the water draining from the Great Lakes that redirects the Gulf Stream eastward.
Herb
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