National Grid Says Southern England Faces Blackouts By 2028

Written by Matt Oliver on August 16, 2024. Posted in Current News

National Grid executives have warned of blackouts before the end of the decade unless the South East pays more for power than other regions

In private conversations with the energy industry, executives from the Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) claimed the network was becoming so congested that “there will be blackouts in the South East by 2028”, one industry source claimed.

They blamed the looming threat on the switch to less predictable wind and solar power, coupled with outdated market rules that critics say are exacerbating bottlenecks.

The ESO is campaigning to introduce so-called zonal pricing where power suppliers can be paid more in the South East than elsewhere if demand is higher.

A second energy industry source confirmed that the ESO is “very worried about keeping the lights on” in the region, adding that the possibility of blackouts was “credible” in the coming years if the problem was not addressed.

The ESO on Tuesday said that its official position did not predict blackouts in 2028, but declined to comment on the private remarks.

A spokesman said:

“As a prudent system operator, we regularly assess the future challenges to decarbonizing Great Britain’s electricity system whilst maintaining security of supply and managing cost.

The ESO’s analysis does not show there will be blackouts because of current market arrangements.

It indicates that we will need to continue to use our operational toolkit to balance the electricity system on a national basis.

However, we expect that reforms to the wholesale electricity market, the accelerated delivery of electricity networks, and delivery of new generation and storage, will create a more efficient electricity system for the future.”

Electricity supply from ‘renewables’ such as wind and solar is set to rocket higher this decade as the Government pushes to make the power grid ‘net zero’ by 2030.

But with many of Britain’s offshore wind farms being built far from the main areas of demand such as London, this will also require massive investment in grid infrastructure to ensure power can be efficiently moved around the country.

Experts and the ESO have argued this is being hindered by existing grid arrangements, where the whole of Britain operates as one electricity market.

The current system largely ignores the realities of how much power can be moved from North to South, owing to physical limits on the capacity of transmission cables.

It also forces the ESO to balance the system to keep the lights on, for example, by paying wind farms to stop generating in Scotland while also paying gas-fired plants in the South to switch on.

It must often make these decisions within a one-hour window and at large expense to consumers.

A recent study by FTI Consulting estimated that these “constraint” payments will reach £2bn in 2030 and around £5bn in 2035.

Jason Mann, an energy expert at FTI Consulting who carried out a study for the Government on the electricity market last year, warned that balancing the South East would become increasingly difficult in the coming years as the grid grows more constrained.

He said:

“As we go to a more intermittent renewables-based system, the challenges of balancing the grid are only going to become greater, particularly under the current national pricing regime.”

The issue has prompted the Government to weigh major changes to the electricity market, potentially by splitting it into regional zones that would each have their own electricity price.

This would encourage power companies to build plants closer to where electricity is needed.

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