More evidence CO2 does NOT drive temperature

Written by Bevan Dochery on January 30, 2025. Posted in Current News

This is the result of my mathematical analysis of the latest CO2 weekly data from the Mauna Loa Observatory

Data Analysis:

Figure 1 shows the atmospheric CO₂ concentration measured weekly at the Mauna Loa Observatory (see Ref.1) for the period 29 March 1958 to 28 December 2024.

The Observatory is at Latitude 19.54° North, Longitude 155.57° West, Elevation 3397 metres.

It is on the northern slope of  Mauna Loa, an active volcano on the island of Hawai’i  in the mid-North Pacific Ocean.

Figure 1

As there were missing values in the time sequence, interpolation was applied using a third order polynomial fit to adjoining data strings and a weekly time interval of 7.0 days, for the following analysis of the CO₂ concentration time series.

The original time series consisted of 3410 values while the interpolated time series consisted of 3484 values at a uniform weekly interval.

The series shows a regular seasonal variation superimposed on an upward trend. The linear trend for the whole period of 66 years was 1.64 ppm per annum. For the 5 year period 29 March, 1958 to 23 March 1963, the rate was 0.705 ppm pa.

For the 5 year period 28 December 2019 to 28 December 2024, the rate had steadily increased to 2.36 ppm pa, that is 3.35 times greater than 62 years earlier. The acceleration in the rate of generation of CO₂ over the time of the measurements is attributed to an increase in biogenic CO₂ in response to the gradual increase in temperature since the end of the Little Ice Age.

Justification for this claim can be seen in a comparison between the dearth of life at the cold Poles and the profusion of life, in a myriad of forms, in the warm Equatorial zone. Life forms flourish with greater temperature.

There are three inflections in the graph corresponding to the time of the volcanic eruptions at Mount Agung, Bali, Indonesia, 17 March and 16 May, 1963,  Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, 12 June 1991, and Kilaueu, Hawai`i, May 2018.

A step in the CO₂ concentration appears to have occurred due to each volcanic eruption. The Mauna Loa Observatory is 9598 km on a bearing of 71̊East from Mount Agung, 8859 km on a bearing of 72̊East from Mount Pinatubo and 4226 km on bearing of 82̊West from Kilaueu.

These events contrast with the lack of any change in the accelerating rate of increase of CO₂ during the reduction of economic activity from the 2020 pandemic or the current ‘Net Zero’ effort bringing into question the claim that CO₂ has been increasing due to the activities of mankind.

The amplitude of the seasonal variation ranged from 5.7 ppm early in the series to 10.1 ppm in the later part of the series, changing from year to year in an irregular fashion but clearly increasing in amplitude over time.

The maximum in the seasonal variation occurred on average in mid-May at the beginning of Summer while the minimum occurred at the end of September, being the end of Summer.

This is attributed to the decay of vegetation in the cold of Winter releasing CO₂ causing a rise in the CO₂ concentration while the increasing Summer sunshine caused an increase in photosynthesis which absorbs CO₂ resulting in the fall in CO₂ concentration.

That is, the concentration is decreasing during the heat of Summer and increasing during the cool of Winter putting it at odds with the UN IPCC claim that an increase in CO₂ concentration causes a temperature increase.

The annual rate of change of the CO₂ concentration was determined from the interpolated weekly time series by taking the difference between values 52.8211 weeks apart, being the average  number of weeks in a year, and is shown in Figure 2.

It displays the estimated annual rate of change of  CO₂ concentration with high frequency noise superimposed on a cyclic pattern with a positive linear trend of 0.029 ppm pa per annum.

Figure 2

The least annual rate of change of  -1.24 ppm pa per annum occurred in the period 18 May 1991 to 23 May 1992, possibly due to the major volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines on 12 June 1991, and the greatest rate of change was 5.79 ppm pa per annum in the period 18 March 2023 to 23 March 2024.

That is, the rate of increase in CO2 concentration has been increasing throughout the 66 years of recording regardless of the efforts of mankind to reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

The sequence of maxima and minima for the annual rate of change of CO2 concentration matches that for the Oceanic Niño 3.4 Index (Ref.2). In order to better illustrate the correlation between the two series, Figure 3 shows the detrended Mauna Loa annual rate of change of CO₂ concentration, after smoothing with a low pass filter, overlain on the Oceanic Niño 3.4 Index, both covering the same 64 year period.

In considering the relationship between the two series it is necessary to be aware that the Mauna Loa rate of change was derived from a weekly series of measurements taken at a single point on the globe.

The Oceanic Niño 3.4 Index is the anomaly in the sea surface temperature relative to a 30 year average over the Equatorial zone between latitudes 5° South to 5° North and longitudes 120° West to 170° West, an area of the central Pacific Ocean of 6,568,670 square kilometres.

The Mauna Loa Observatory is 2,450 km from the centre of the Ninõ 3.4 area, on a bearing of 27.5° East of North.

Figure 3

As has been demonstrated in earlier studies of CO₂ data on the Climate Auditor web pages, their seasonal variation has been attributed to biological sources in response to the associated temperature change.

Likewise the close correlation between the Mauna Loa CO₂ rate of change and the Oceanic Niño 3.4 Index, as shown by the coincidence of the major maxima in Figure 3, is attributed to a biological response to the major, world-wide climate event depicted by the Niño 3.4 Index.

There is a marked negative correlation in the centre of the graph in the later part of 1991 following the major volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines on 12 June 1991 which significantly altered the relationship between the rate of change of CO₂ and the Oceanic Niño 3.4 Index.

The eruption caused the rate of change of CO₂ to drop to a minimum as the sea surface temperatures reached a local maximum. The eruption may not have been reflected in the ONI 3.4 sea surface temperatures as Mount Pinatubo is 1675 km North of the Equator well outside the ONI 3.4 area.

Autocorrelation Function:

Figure 4

More detail of the source of variation in the CO₂ annual rate of change is shown by its autocorrelation function illustrated in Figure 4. It reveals a clear cyclic pattern based on the El Niño event as shown in the accompanying table listing the correlation maxima, Table 1.

Table 1

The average from Table 1, column 4, adjusted for the multiple expressions of the El Niño event was 1325 days. The event clearly dominates the CO₂ annual rate of change indicating that this major climate event together with the seasonal weather pattern determine the rate of generation of CO₂ in the Equatorial region.

This confirms the earlier proposition that the temperature level determines the rate of change of CO₂ concentration as seen in the monthly data for Cape Grim and Macquarie Island stations and Mt Waliguan Observatory described in the analysis of data from each site and reported in the pages of: https://www.climateauditor.com .

Discrete Fourier Transform:

Figure 5 shows the amplitude spectrum from the Discrete Fourier Transform of the interpolated time series for the annual rate of change of the CO2 concentration series length of 3431 values.

The amplitude scale was clipped to better display the higher frequency, shorter wavelength events so it excludes the maximum of 10.7 at x-coordinate 18, equivalent to a period of 1334 days, which dominated the autocorrelation function.

This confirms the maximum predicted to represent the response to the El Niño event already seen in the autocorrelation function.

Figure 5

There is a multitude of local maxima in the Amplitude spectrum some of which have been assigned possible sources from the known periods of the Moon and planets between instances of the Sun, Earth, Moon or planets being in alignment.

Average values for these periods have been taken from the publicly available literature. The periods drift due to the ever changing configuration of the Solar System and this may contribute to a broadening of the spectral responses.

There are other periodic events, such as changes in the ellipticity of the orbits which have not been taken into account in this study.

A list of possible sources is shown in Table 2 for a selection of the peaks in the DFT amplitude spectrum. They are listed by the coordinate on the x axis, in cycles per 3430 weeks, and the amplitude of response with period in years and days for ease of reference to orbital periods of the Moon and planets.

Some of these may also relate to the periodicities resulting from the Short-term orbital forcing described in Cionco, R. G., and Soon,W. W.-H.[ Ref. 3 ].

Table 2

Conclusion:

The major influence on the rate of generation of atmospheric CO₂ in the Equatorial zone has been the El Niño event, that is, the climate causes a change in the rate of generation of CO₂, the complete opposite to the UN IPCC claim that CO₂ causes ‘climate change’.

As far as is known, no physical process has been proposed whereby the CO₂ change could cause an El Niño event.

Furthermore it is notable that both the synodic and draconic periods of the Moon are apparent throughout the 66 year weekly series. An explanation for the synodic period  is that each New Moon reduces the incoming Sun’s radiation to the Earth and its atmosphere as it passes between the Sun and the Earth.

Similar temperature minima must occur when Mercury and/or Venus pass between the Sun and the Earth.

The draconic period is due to the Moon’s elliptical plane being at an angle of 5.14° to the Earth’s elliptic relative to the Sun. As a result, when the Moon passes through one of the two nodal points, where the Moon’s ellipse intersects the Earth’s elliptic, it has the greatest influence in diminishing the irradiation of the Earth which, in turn, reduces the Earth’s surface temperature thereby causing a response in the rate of generation of CO₂.

Except during a Solar eclipse when the drop in temperature is obvious, the passing of the Moon through its nodal points may only causes a minor drop in temperature. In spite of this, there is a measurable effect on the rate of change of CO₂ concentration apparent in the amplitude spectrum implying a significant sensitivity between temperature and CO₂ rate of change.

This action appears to have been completely overlooked by the UN IPCC in their assessment of the forces generating the Earth’s climate.

As a number of the spectral maxima approximately correspond with the synodic  periods of the Moon and the planets, the results are interpreted as showing that the Sun’s irradiance of the Earth is modulated by the movement of the Moon and planets.

This must cause corresponding changes in the Earth’s sea-surface and atmospheric temperatures which, in turn, cause changes in the CO₂ concentration even down to the 24 hour daily cycle.

This is contrary to the never-proven claim by the UN IPCC that increased CO₂ concentration causes an increase in the Earth’s atmospheric and surface temperature.

The UN IPCC First Assessment  Report, 1990, consisted of this  Overview, quote:

This  Overview  reflects  the conclusions of the  reports  of (i) the  three  IPCC  Working  Groups on  science,  impacts,  and  response  strategies,  and (ii) the  Policymaker  Summaries of the  IPCC Working Groups and  the IPCC  Special Committee on  the  Participation of Developing Countries.

1. Science

This section is structured similarly to the Policymaker Summary of Working Group I.

1.0.1   We  are certain of the following:

• There is a  natural  greenhouse  effect  which  already  keeps  the  Earth warmer  than  it would  otherwise  be.

• Emissions resulting from human activities are  substantially  increasing the  atmospheric  concentrations  of  the  greenhouse  gases:  carbon  dioxide,  methane,   chloro-fluorocarbons  (CFCs) and nitrous oxide.  These  increases will  enhance  the greenhouse  effect,  resulting on average  in  an  additional warming of  the Earth’s  surface.   The   main  greenhouse   gas,  water vapour,  will  increase  in  response to global  warming and further  enhance  it.

By 2021, the Sixth Assessment Report, AR6, Summary for Policymakers, Working Group I, declared, under “A. The Current State of the Climate” that:

A.1    It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.

No such human influence has been detected by this analysis of the El Niño event, a major Earth climate event in spite of the 2015 Paris Agreement by 194 States and the European Union to ‘tackle’ ‘climate change’ nor the 2022 establishment of a UN High-Level Expert Group on ‘Net-Zero’ Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities.

In all likelihood, the UN together with the World Economic Forum are working to raise fear of climate catastrophe in the population at large so as to bring about the UN ‘Pact for the Future’ of One World Government on the assumption that the World will avoid a catastrophe once they control the World.

As Klaus Schwab stated recently at the World Economic Forum 2025 in Davos:

“The future doesn’t just unfold, the future is shaped by us and especially by us in this room… “

References:

1. https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/mlo.html

File: weekly_in_situ_co2_mlo.csv for the period 29 March 1958 to 14 October 2023.

2. Oceanic Nino Index, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

3. Cionco and Soon, Short-term orbital forcing: A quasi-review and a reappraisal of realistic boundary conditions for climate modeling, Earth-Science Reviews 166 (2017) 206-222, Elsevier B.V.

Bold emphasis added

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