More Environmental Demagoguery
A recent article published by the Environmental News Network (ENN) states that “…A serious drought has flared up across half of the United States—a familiar story for the past two decades” ().
A map corroborating their claim does, indeed, show an area of severe drought in the southwest corner of the conterminous U.S., with less severe conditions radiating out from the core (see Figure 1).
More importantly, implying that droughts may be worsening could motivate legislative and regulatory institutions to engage in “remedial” action. For example, advocates of the “Green New Deal” could easily seize upon this sort of narrative and use it as a cudgel to drive their initiatives.
Similar calls to action include mitigating the impacts of hurricane intensification, heightened tornadic frequencies, increasing wildfires, and skyrocketing heat waves, to name just a few.
Interestingly, virtually all of these alarming scenarios have proven false, and, in like fashion, an examination of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) contradicts the ENN drought threat.
Cited as the “gold standard” in drought assessment, the PDSI quantifies the relative “dryness” or “wetness” of the soil through an elaborate formula that melds both temperature and precipitation information over time. A time series of moisture deficits or surpluses can then be plotted, and trend lines constructed via least squares techniques.
Figure 2 shows the drought trend from 2000 through 2020, with periods of moisture surplus depicted in green, while periods of moisture deficit (i.e., drought) are depicted in yellow.
The PDSI trend is shown in blue and stands in sharp contrast to the ENN claims: the trend over the past 20 years has been towards wetter conditions in the contiguous U.S., not drier ones.
Figure 3 extends the series back to 1900 and, again, we see a small upward trend in moisture availability. This 120-year trend is primarily a function of increasing precipitation in the contiguous U.S. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Precipitation | Climate Change Indicators in the United States | US EPA):
“On average, total annual precipitation has increased over land areas in the United States and worldwide … . Since 1901, global precipitation has increased at an average rate of 0.08 inches per decade, while precipitation in the contiguous 48 states has increased at a rate of 0.17 inches per decade.
Some parts of the United States have experienced greater increases in precipitation than others. A few areas, such as the Southwest, have seen a decrease in precipitation … . Not all of these regional trends are statistically significant, however.”
Implying that drought conditions in the U.S. are worsening runs counter to the best available data on record. This is unacceptable, and to quote an acclaimed climate activist with virtually no scientific training, “How dare you!”
About the author: Arthur Viterito is a Professor of Geography at the College of Southern Maryland, and has previously held positions at the University of Pittsburgh and the George Washington University.
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Doug Harrison
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ugust and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicles of Malmsbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land. “therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he has stretched out his hand against them and hath smitten them”
Most close-knit farming communities endured the shortages of 1315 and hoped for a better harvest the following year.But the heavy rains of 1316 prvented people sowing. Intense gales battered the English Channel and North Sea;flocks and herds withered, crops failed, prices rose,and people again contemplated the wrath of God. By the time the barrage of rains subsided in 1321, over a million and a half people, villagers and city folk alike, had perished from hunger and famine related epidemics.
Giles de Musat of Saint- Martin de Tournai in modern day Belgium wrote:” Men and women from among the powerful, the middling, and the lowly, old and young, rich and poor, perished daily in such numbers that the air was fetid with stench.”
People everywhere despaired. Guilds and religious orders moved through the streets, the people naked, carrying the bodies of saints and other sacred relics. After generations of good, they believed that divine retribution had come to punish a Europe divided by war and petty strife.
We don’t seem to have come far from those days Have we?, Just changed the religion to man made climate change.
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Doug Harrison
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The above post seems to have lost the first few lines Here they are again:
Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning the freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July and then August and September. etc
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Brian James
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Jan 25, 2021 Five Years Since The End Of The Earth
Fifteen years ago today, Nobel Laureate Al Gore said global warming would burn up the planet in ten years.
https://youtu.be/LVCUODGuNcs
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