MIT: Electric cars cannot compete against petrol engines
Electric cars will not be able to compete in the same price range as fuel-driven vehicles while they rely on lithium-ion batteries.
This is according to a report from the MIT Energy Initiative, which argues that the price of electric vehicles batteries will not be sufficiently reduced for more mainstream adoption in the coming years.
Although the price of lithium-ion batteries, which makes up about a third of the cost of an electric vehicle, is steadily declining, the reductions will soon reach a limit.
The Executive Director of the Mobility of the Future group at MIT, Randall Field, explained the problem related to the cost of materials.
“If you follow some of these other projections, you basically end up with the cost of batteries being less than the ingredients required to make it,” Field said.
Price per kWh
According to Technology Review, the current average price of a lithium-ion battery pack ranges between $175 and $300 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
Informed projections have estimated that the price of lithium-ion batteries will be reduced to $100 per kWh by 2025. This number is punted as the ideal figure where electric car prices will be on par with fuel-based models.
To reach this level would require that the prices of the metals and materials needed for the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries remain flat, notwithstanding the fact that the demand for these would rise as more electric vehicles enter the market.
MIT’s research therefore indicated that the price per kWh would likely only be at $124 by 2025.
This would be enough to drive the cost-of-ownership down to around the same price as that of conventional cars, but the initial purchase prices for electric cars would still be significantly higher.
Other battery technologies needed
The study further stated that from 2030 onwards, other battery technologies would need to be developed to drive prices down, as the material costs will make up an increased part of the total cost.
These include battery types such as lithium-sulfur, lithium-metal, and solid-state.
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Tom O
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Quote –
“This would be enough to drive the cost-of-ownership down to around the same price as that of conventional cars, but the initial purchase prices for electric cars would still be significantly higher.”
That is a rather intriguing statement. My “take” from this is that there is an implication here that the cost of operation of the electric car is somewhat less than the “petrol” car. This also assumes that the cost of electricity stays stable and does not increase due to the erratic and expensive nature in which it is projected to be.
Of course, “usability” of the electric car will be limited by a slower growth of the infrastructure that will be needed to support it if, in fact, it is not going to be competitive with the “petrol” car whose infrastructure is already in place and can be inexpensively expanded as needed.
I don’t really think that anyone has really thought through just how expensive it is going to be to put in the electrical infrastructure that will be needed to give electric cars their 10 minute or less full charges. That will not be easy nor cheap, though certainly in the EU it would be more possible than in a nation that stretches from “sea to shining sea,” where 150 miles of virtually empty highway is not an uncommon think to see west of the Mississippi River, and where the 50,000KV and higher lines don’t run parallel to every highway.
Putting in the feed lines to support the required electrical charge point about every 100 miles is not going to ever be inexpensive, and that cost will have to be born by the user, not every one that else unless the government cares nothing at all for the people it governs. Or one that decides who has the right to be “mobile” and who can sit at home and wonder what other places look like in reality and not as presented on “the tube.”
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JaKo
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Tom,
Most of that seems quite obvious, I guess; however, the pure electrics may ever be usable for long hauls (providing for existing tech). OTOH, advanced hybrid technology is coming along rather well. Within city / whatever limits, mandatory use of electric-only would apply, while beyond that a high efficiency ICE would take the brunt: e.g. a 30kW diesel could run with efficiency similar to power plants (within limited RPM range). And the same would go for the trucks and buses, 100kW+ incarnations of those (near 50%) are already available.
A bit of fun:
“… 50,000KV and higher lines don’t run parallel to every highway.”
That’s correct, these run usually near perpendicular (vertical) to those @ 50MV…
Well, unless you meant what you wrote — 50k”KV” (Kelvin-Volt) 😉
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Tom O
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I should have left it at 50KV, but wasn’t paying attention. Not sure why you chose to use MV instead of KV(kilovolts).
Beyond that, I did note an article on jonova that referenced driving in the US. Seems they came upon a half mile long line of Teslas, all waiting to be charged so they could continue on their journey. Like I said, the infrastructure for electrics isn’t there unless you only want to drive In the city, and then it’s spotty. And one last thought JaKo, no matter what you might think, in the end it will be cost effectiveness that drives what we drive, and not the climate mongers and electric lovers. Should electric become cost effective over the entire spectrum of automotive usage, and it isn’t likely to, we’ll see more people driving them. However, with the limitations of natural resources, I doubt if we ever will see all electric highways unless you kill off a few billion drivers first, or they run on Nikola Tesla’s ether field. And we both know that won’t happen since they can’t make money off the energy they would be using, or tax it any way.
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Andy Rowlands
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Electric vehincles are all well and good, but are prone to self-combusting, journey times would be greatly increased with the need to recharge multiple times, and very cold weather will effectively flatten batteries overnight, leaving the car unusable the following day.
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K. Kaiser
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Well, who would have thunk that??
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Judy
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My all electric car is going great guns. Re flammable batteries, I believe gasoline is also a flammable substance. I carry my recharging unit in my boot. I can plug it in to a 10 amp PowerPoint at my sons house when I go there for lunch if I want to. My car has a 270 km rang when it is fully charged. That is fine for me to drive around Canberra for more than a week before I plug it in to my 10 amp power point in the garage. Australia’s beautiful affordable coal recharges the batteries for a 14 hour period overnight when power it is at its cheapest rate. It is perfect for me. It is also perfect as a second car for a family.
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Tom O
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And what do you use when you do more than just drive around the city? 270 km range per charge? I could drive to work and back twice on the charge. I know Australia is not a small place but it appears, if you only need an electric car, you don’t see very much of it. And as the cheap coal is taken off line and replaced by wind mills there, I do hope you also have a bicycle as well. In the meantime, if that is 10 amps at 120 volts for 14 hours, and converting the 270 km to 168 miles, I do hope you aren’t paying more than 10 cents a kilowatt for your electricity, because that is all my “petrol” car costs me to drive per mile.
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Graeme Mochrie
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Aluminium air batteries may offer a better alternative. Not rechargeable but power dense and just a case of removing old and slotting in new. Petrol cars can I believe be converted for not too large a sum.
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Graeme Mochrie
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Aluminium air batteries may offer a better alternative. Not rechargeable but power dense and just a case of removing old and slotting in new. Petrol cars can I believe be converted for not too large a sum.
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