Met Office keen to declare an unusually warm May
I guess we ought to start with a bit of background, so here’s a small sample of the legacy media doing their very best to please their globalist paymasters:
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-06-03/warmest-may-and-spring-on-record-in-uk-met-office-figures-show
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/met-office-may-weather-forecast-uk-temeperature-b1161775.html
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-had-its-warmest-may-and-spring-on-record/ar-BB1nxrzw
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/uk-sees-warmest-may-spring-133451857.html
I’ve yet to come across friends, family and colleagues who believe these claims largely because we were all shivering and reaching for our thermal underwear.
The central heating in the Dee household remained operative because there’s one thing I hate and that is cold fingers as I try to type.
After a bit of ranting on my facebook page I decided to knuckle down and do a bit of research that resulted in the following free-to-view articles:
A Fresh And Fruity Look At Spring 2024 (part 1)
A Fresh And Fruity Look At Spring 2024 (part 2)
A Fresh And Fruity Look At Spring 2024 (part 3)
A Fresh And Fruity Look At Spring 2024 (part 4)
With our central heating still on in June and my Norwegian wool socks once again in use I decided to lie in wait. One person decided to open their mouth without thinking and re-stacked this note in a rather sarcastic manner.
Instead of blocking them (my default tactic) I decided to explain a few things in this reply. Often it is the little things that matter, especially things that the public can relate to.
Nobody in their right mind would try and fathom an Earth systems model running under CMIP7 or query the homogenisation process behind CRUTEM5 but they will understand central heating bills.
If you plough through my four articles on May/spring 2024 you’ll discover that daytime temperatures were nothing special. Less than nothing special, in fact, and I declared them to be a jam doughnut without jam.
It is a different story for nighttime temperatures and these are what pushed the daily mean temperature up above normal for this time of year. The Daily Telegraph nailed it with this headline:
Clouds. We don’t understand them, and neither do leading scientists. Aside from a few hunches there are no viable theories that stand up to scrutiny, and no attempt is made at modelling them in those million dollar Earth systems models upon which the IPCC feed.
It is assumed that clouds are a mere symptom of ‘climate change’ and not a driver, but this is only a guess from those with vested interests in chasing CO2. One scientist who takes clouds seriously is Dr Henrik Svensmark and I thoroughly recommend you check his ideas out, perhaps starting with this accessible documentary.
So that was May. How about June?
Well, the Met Office was quick off the mark to defend June as best they can. Here’s the Telegraph reporting on their cogitation:
Cool temperatures are never unusual but warm ones are; plus things will soon change anyways to make it warm and warm is bad, so we’re heading back to bad.
We’ve seen this game played over and over again but I guess this is the best they can muster. It is time, therefore, to get that kettle on, shove some bread under the grill and get the Not So Flaming June 2024 show on the road!
I shall start by pointing my browser at this page and pulling down lots of tasty daily data for temperatures across central England since 1772 in order to reveal June’s secrets.
A Quick Word
We’ve only got the first 14 days of June 2024 to consider so in order to play a straight bat we can’t go comparing this part-month sample with the entire month of June in the historical period (keep your eyes peeled for that deceptive game). What I shall do is slice all Junes back to 1772 such that only the first 14 days are considered otherwise we’re comparing apples to pears.
June 1 – 14 Mean Daily Temperature
Mean daily temperature is invariably what the Met Office use for their analyses so here is the mean daily temperature for the first two weeks of June for every June going back to 1772. You can see June 2024 as the sorry looking dangler bottom right.
In terms of medals for warmth gold goes to 1846 with 18.51°C, silver goes to 1822 with 17.94°C and bronze goes to 1940 with 17.61°C. If you’re looking for a modern warm June then 2021 does the trick by coming in 11th place with 16.56°C.
In terms of medals for cold gold goes to 1916 with 10.44°C, silver goes to 1909 with 10.69°C and bronze goes to 1991 with 10.85°C. If you’re looking for a modern cold June then 2012 does the trick by coming in 25th place with 12.08°C.
As for June 2024, well this month to date has crossed the line in 38th place with 12.37°C.
As for a trend there isn’t one, with linear regression yielding a statistically insignificant warming rate of +0.37°C per century (p=0.188). With a time series as flat as a pancake you might guess that we’re looking at a random walk, and you’d be right for a Wald-Wolfowitz test for randomness (runs test) yielded a p-value of p=0.684.
So there we go. In terms of the most popular measure of temperature then English part-Junes are not getting any hotter over time and exhibit randomness. This means records – both cool and warm – will get broken from time to time, and we’ll get bunching of cool and warm runs from time to time but this essentially means nothing.
Obviously I wouldn’t be saying this if I were still a government scientist!
June 1 – 14 Mean Daytime Temperature
Here we have the temperatures attained during the day, these being the daytime means for 1st – 14th June each year. In terms of medals for warmth gold goes to 1940 with 23.89°C, silver goes to 1970 with 23.36°C and bronze goes to 1950 with 22.94°C.
If you’re looking for a modern hot pepper then 2023 does the trick by coming in 8th place with 21.79°C.
As for a trend there isn’t one, with linear regression yielding a statistically insignificant warming rate of +0.38°C per century (p=0.335). With a time series as flat as a pancake you might guess that we’re looking at a random walk, and you’d be right for a Wald-Wolfowitz test for randomness (runs test) yielded a p-value of p=0.832.
June 1 – 14 Maximum Daytime Temperature
Here we have the absolute maximum temperature attained during the day for 1 – 14th June each year. In terms of medals for warmth gold goes to 1947 with 30.00°C, silver goes to 1950 with 29.90°C and bronze goes to 2023 with 28.60°C.
If you’re looking for a modern hot potato then 2023 does the trick!
As for a trend there isn’t one, with linear regression yielding a statistically insignificant warming rate of +0.55°C per century (p=0.340). With a time series as flat as a pancake you might guess that we’re looking at a random walk, and you’d be right for a Wald-Wolfowitz test for randomness (runs test) yielded a p-value of p=0.280.
June 1 – 14 Mean Nighttime Temperature
Here we have the temperatures attained during the night, these being the nighttime means for 1st – 14th June each year. In terms of medals for cold gold goes to 1991 with 6.75°C, silver goes to 1916 with 6.88°C and bronze goes to 1909 with 6.90°C.
If you’re looking for a modern chiller then June 2015 does the trick by coming in 9th place with 7.44°C. June 2024 managed to cross the line in 19th place with 7.96C.
As for a trend there probably isn’t one, with linear regression yielding a statistically insignificant warming rate of +0.37°C per century (p=0.094). With a time series as flat as a pancake you might guess that we’re looking at a random walk, and you’d be right for a Wald-Wolfowitz test for randomness (runs test) yielded a p-value of p=0.355.
June 1 – 14 Minimum Nighttime Temperature
Here we have the coldest temperatures attained during the night for 1st – 14th June each year. In terms of medals for brass monkeys gold goes to 1991 with 1.20°C, silver goes to 1962 with 1.90°C and bronze goes to 1884 with 2.70°C.
If you’re looking for a modern chiller then June 2005 does the trick by coming in 17th place with 3.70°C. June 2024 managed to cross the line in 57th place with 5.1°C.
As for a trend there is one – Hurrah! Linear regression yielded a statistically significant warming rate of +0.65°C per century (p=0.027).
This is not a lot but it does suggest that extreme cold nights are becoming slightly less extreme and my money is on increasing cloud cover – please do check out the work of Dr Henrik Svensmark, and ideally buy his book for curling up on the sofa in front of a log fire this July.
If Svensmark’s work floats your boat I also recommend you follow the work of Dr Nir Shaviv, perhaps starting with this lecture.
Coffee & Cogitation
If I were to wrap this slice of work up in a tortilla it would be to say that 1st – 14th June 2024 was cold but it didn’t break records. June is supposed to flame and roses are supposed to be bustin’ out all over.
According to alarmists and the legacy media we’re in a climate crisis/catastrophe with global boiling, and so you’d expect a notoriously warm month to be getting warmer. Except it isn’t.
Daytime mean temperatures for early June are not soaring and neither are daytime maxima. Nothing is out of control. Nothing much is happening in that it’s the same old same old since 1878 when it comes to the hot part of the day.
When it comes to the cold part of the day it’s a different story. Cloud cover at night is keeping the heat in, thus reducing the likelihood of temperature extremes. This happened big time back in May and there’s evidence of this happening this June right now – tonight!
Because of this phenomenon the nighttime temperature profile bumps up the mean daily profile and it is the mean daily profile that alarmists rely on to sell their goods; that’s what you get plastered all over the headlines.
But where now?
Clouds are where it’s at. We don’t understand them that well and they’re more than capable of dominating the global climate.
Until climatologists start acknowledging the role of clouds as drivers of climate then the globalists are going to be trampling on everybody.
Including those misguided souls who throw soup and glue themselves to things.
See more here substack.com
Header image: Everlywell
About the author: John Dee (not his real name) is a former British government G7-level scientist who now uses his analytical skills to highlight where the public is being lied to on various subjects.
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