Met Office Accused Of Making ‘Grossly Misleading’ Climate Forecasts
A new study by the UK Met Office claims that accelerating global warming will make extreme rainfall events in the UK four times more frequent by 2080 compared to the 1980s
This story has been widely covered in the news media.
The Met Office claims are derived from computer modeling based on the so-called RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the most extreme pathway for global ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions, which the Met Office misleadingly describes as ‘plausible’, but which even the IPCC says is the least plausible.
In reality, most credible scientists regard RCP8.5 as implausible given that global emissions data and technological advances essentially rule it out.
Even the Biden administration has stopped using RCP8.5.
Moreover, the Met Office offers no empirical data or evidence that an increased trend in extreme rainfall events has actually been observed in line with their modeling.
Dr. Benny Peiser, the director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, called on the Met Office to withdraw its fatally flawed study:
“The Met Office should withdraw this grossly misleading and baseless study, which is undermining its scientific credibility and integrity and makes it look incompetent.”
Climate alarmists often use RCP8.5 and call it ‘business as usual’, which is the very last thing it is. RCP8.5 is a scenario where we burn many more times the amount of ‘fossil fuels’ than we do now, which basically makes it a nonsense argument.
See more here climatechangedispatch
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Alan
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Taking the mean of a lot of computer runs does not produce an accurate answer.
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Joseph Olson
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after decades of failed three day weather forcasts, the MET statement Apdil 09, 2013
“The MET Office admits that predictions about weather and climate are beyond the ability of charlatans with super computers, and have therefore switched to seance with poltergeist form of forecasts. Future MET predictions will be made by the ghost of Marcel Marceau, offering the royal subjects the same level of accuracy and entertainment”
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James
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Might expect warmer air to carry more water, so maybe increase rain. But here in Europe water’s getting scarce, both because the Alpine glaciers have almost disappeared in the last 10k years and apparently also due to less rain. If that goes on the Po valley will soon be a desert and the Rhine a bog. And if the air does carry more water, how many more greenhouse roofs do we get, and will this have any effect? Our meteomen seem to be still using their old 1980s models based on worst case RCP8.5 and no new one taking account of real observable changes is in sight. Of course if Mr Putin and his friends in the EU continue to insist we burn coal rather than gas or Uranium for electricity, once oil runs out, it’s anyone’s guess where we’re going; but going somewhere we certainly are.
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