In this video, there is an exploration of the Medieval Warm Period, however, Dr. Arthur Viterito pointed out the following in response to the video.
1) We have known that the Milankovitch cycles are the “master” driver of global climate change for a long time. That is not in dispute. That said, the solar variability is distinctly different from changes in obliquity or eccentricity. The changes in obliquity do not change the amount of solar radiation to strike the surface, but instead creates seasonal imbalances relative to what we receive now. A decrease in obliquity, i.e., the axis trends towards lower tilt, creates cooler summers at the north pole while creating warmer winters. That is, the seasonal contrasts across the globe are reduced. The effect of a warmer winter is to increase the amount of snowfall at the poles. By contrast, the cooler summers allows less snow and ice to melt. Net net, the north polar regions accumulate more snow and ice, raising the albedo, and causing a positive feedback of amplified cooling.
2) A change in eccentricity has the same effect: a more circular orbit (which is where we are trending now) reduces seasonal contrasts whereas a more elliptical orbit increases those contrasts.
3) As for the hemispheric differences, a water pole (i.e., North Pole) surrounded by land is very sensitive to these seasonal contrasts. An inversion of that (i.e., a land pole surrounded by water, or the South Pole) is little affected. As someone who has studied geography at the undergraduate/graduate/professional level since 1971, I can state with high confidence that “geography matters a great deal.”
4) With the current configuration of the oceans and continents, I do not see how the El Nino cycling “shuts down” as they claim. It will modify but not shut down.
5) The strengthening or weakening of AMOC is precisely what I have been arguing with my geothermal hypothesis. Yes, more seafloor geothermal heat intensifies the AMOC which brings more tropical heat to the poles (i.e., “Atlantification”), reducing albedo and amplifying warming.
Dr. Viterito received his Ph.D. in geography from the University of Denver with specialties in climatology and physical geography. He has published research in the areas of radiational receipt, urban climatology, and global climate change, and his work in urban climatology was cited in the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
His latest publication, “The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming,” appears in the April 2016 issue of the Journal of Earth Science and Climatic Change. The study establishes the connection of increased geothermal flux with warming of the global climate since 1979.
Dr. Viterito is a member of the Association of American Geographers, the International Association for Urban Climate, and the Maryland State Geographic Information Committee.
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Planetary geometry has no measurable effect over a 50 to 100 year period.
The relationship between seismic activity and climate change is unknown and probably too small to measure. The rising trend of ocean seismic activity is MAINLY from new discoveries and more measurements since the 1990s. The trend of total global heat releases from seismic activity is unknown and that trend may be too small to measure at the ocean’s surface. The author should stick to geography.
I met Dr Viterito at the Heartland ICCC-9 Lukewarmist Love Fest, in July 2014 in Las Vegas. He had a million data point Excel spread sheet showing correlation of NOAA satellite temperature data and USGS seismic data over a twenty year period, that controlled ENSO. The El Nino Southern Oscillation research has expanded to Indian, Atlantic and Arctic volcanic rift zone forcing factors. Search the Principia Scientific search bar for “Viterito” who uses robust empirical data and traditional scientific methods to explain our planet’s climate puzzle.
You are right – on short timescales, changes in orbital variation have little effect. However, the video shows that over the past 4000 years, we have been trending towards less axial tilt. Going forward, that trend will continue, lessening seasonal variation even further.
As for the seismic activity, I refer you to a definitive article by Ammon, Lay and Simpson (Great Earthquakes and Global Seismic Networks, Seismological Research Letters, Volume 81, No. 6, November/December 2010, pp 965-971) In that article, they show, and I quote:
“While the recent activity levels relative to pre-1970 are subject to ambiguities associated with the catalog magnitudes, the increase in global seismicity that occurred during the deployment of the GSN (1986–2004) is robust, as it involves only rigorous Mw determinations and a complete global catalog. The large number of great events during the past six years has produced a steeper overall slope of cumulative seismic moment
versus time relative to any comparable time interval during the preceding century that does not include a giant event…The point in this article is that the establishment of extensive global digital seismographic networks, many of which have open data access, came about in time to capture substantial numbers of seismic recordings of the recent surge of great events (and, of course, thousands upon thousands of smaller events as well).”
In short, the increase in seismic activity that began in the 1990s is VERY real! In fact, I make note of this and describe the impacts of that large inflection in:
“Viterito A. 1995: An Important Inflection Point in Recent Geophysical History. Int J Environ Sci Nat Res. 2022; 29(5): 556271. DOI: 10.19080/IJESNR.2022.29.556271”
As for the impacts of increasing seismic activity, and correspondingly geothermal flux over mid ocean ridges, there is a substantial literature as to its impact on the thermohaline flow. To cite but one article, Ballarotta et. al state: (Ballarotta, M. et al., 2015 “Impact of the oceanic geothermal heat flux on a glacial ocean state”, Climate of the Past Discussions, 11, 3597-3624):
““Although the ocean is largely heated and thermally driven at the surface, several recent studies suggest that the OGH (ocean geothermal heating) can also affect the ocean dynamic and heat budget. …. By applying spatially constant or variable heat flux in Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) forced with the present day climate, it is shown that the OGH is a significant forcing that can weaken the stability of the water column, warm the bottom water and strengthen the thermohaline circulation…”
I shall leave it to you to access the other materials the authors refer to.
As for my training as a geographer, preparation in my specialty of physical geography has been quite rigorous. I have had graduate and undergraduate coursework in calculus, statistics, physics, chemistry, astronomy, hydrology, biology, geology, and atmospheric science. That said, I will proudly “stick to geography.”
incorporated for charitable purposes. Head Office: 27 Old Gloucester Street, London WC1N 3AX.
Richard Greene
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Planetary geometry has no measurable effect over a 50 to 100 year period.
The relationship between seismic activity and climate change is unknown and probably too small to measure. The rising trend of ocean seismic activity is MAINLY from new discoveries and more measurements since the 1990s. The trend of total global heat releases from seismic activity is unknown and that trend may be too small to measure at the ocean’s surface. The author should stick to geography.
Reply
Joseph Olson
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I met Dr Viterito at the Heartland ICCC-9 Lukewarmist Love Fest, in July 2014 in Las Vegas. He had a million data point Excel spread sheet showing correlation of NOAA satellite temperature data and USGS seismic data over a twenty year period, that controlled ENSO. The El Nino Southern Oscillation research has expanded to Indian, Atlantic and Arctic volcanic rift zone forcing factors. Search the Principia Scientific search bar for “Viterito” who uses robust empirical data and traditional scientific methods to explain our planet’s climate puzzle.
Reply
Arthur Viterito
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You are right – on short timescales, changes in orbital variation have little effect. However, the video shows that over the past 4000 years, we have been trending towards less axial tilt. Going forward, that trend will continue, lessening seasonal variation even further.
As for the seismic activity, I refer you to a definitive article by Ammon, Lay and Simpson (Great Earthquakes and Global Seismic Networks, Seismological Research Letters, Volume 81, No. 6, November/December 2010, pp 965-971) In that article, they show, and I quote:
“While the recent activity levels relative to pre-1970 are subject to ambiguities associated with the catalog magnitudes, the increase in global seismicity that occurred during the deployment of the GSN (1986–2004) is robust, as it involves only rigorous Mw determinations and a complete global catalog. The large number of great events during the past six years has produced a steeper overall slope of cumulative seismic moment
versus time relative to any comparable time interval during the preceding century that does not include a giant event…The point in this article is that the establishment of extensive global digital seismographic networks, many of which have open data access, came about in time to capture substantial numbers of seismic recordings of the recent surge of great events (and, of course, thousands upon thousands of smaller events as well).”
In short, the increase in seismic activity that began in the 1990s is VERY real! In fact, I make note of this and describe the impacts of that large inflection in:
“Viterito A. 1995: An Important Inflection Point in Recent Geophysical History. Int J Environ Sci Nat Res. 2022; 29(5): 556271. DOI: 10.19080/IJESNR.2022.29.556271”
As for the impacts of increasing seismic activity, and correspondingly geothermal flux over mid ocean ridges, there is a substantial literature as to its impact on the thermohaline flow. To cite but one article, Ballarotta et. al state: (Ballarotta, M. et al., 2015 “Impact of the oceanic geothermal heat flux on a glacial ocean state”, Climate of the Past Discussions, 11, 3597-3624):
““Although the ocean is largely heated and thermally driven at the surface, several recent studies suggest that the OGH (ocean geothermal heating) can also affect the ocean dynamic and heat budget. …. By applying spatially constant or variable heat flux in Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) forced with the present day climate, it is shown that the OGH is a significant forcing that can weaken the stability of the water column, warm the bottom water and strengthen the thermohaline circulation…”
I shall leave it to you to access the other materials the authors refer to.
As for my training as a geographer, preparation in my specialty of physical geography has been quite rigorous. I have had graduate and undergraduate coursework in calculus, statistics, physics, chemistry, astronomy, hydrology, biology, geology, and atmospheric science. That said, I will proudly “stick to geography.”
Reply
VOWG
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We cannot control the movement of the planet.
Reply