Lies, Damned Lies, and Malarkey
While alarming on its face, a bit of digging reveals a startlingly different story. In fact, the government’s own data are at odds with each and every hazard detailed in that talk!
The “historic flood” claim is easily debunked by data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Their data (climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-river-flooding) show that the magnitude of floods in the US declined from 1965-2015, with a negative trend of -0.02 for the mean correlation over time (2015 is the last year included in their database).
This is readily visible in the US map as the majority of the gauging stations (58.9 percent) show small to moderate decreases (Fig.1).
In lockstep, the frequency of floods in the US has also declined for the majority of stations (61.3 percent), with an average trend of -0.003 (Fig 2).
Figure 2. US flood frequency, 1965-2015.
The second item on the list is that we’re experiencing more severe droughts (national/time-series / climate at a glance / national centers for environmental information (NCEI) / noaa.gov). That too is readily discredited by examining the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI, Fig. 3).
This widely used metric shows that since 1895, the periods of moisture surplus (green areas) are of slightly greater duration and intensity than the periods of drought (yellow areas).
Additionally, the PHDI trend line is sloped upwards, indicating a trend towards slightly wetter conditions, NOT drier ones.
Corroborating evidence can be found in the average monthly precipitation amounts for the contiguous US (climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/national centers for environmental information (NCEI) (noaa.gov).
Again, the trend line is upwards, indicating a wetter environment since 1895 (Fig. 4).
Figure 4 . US precipitation, 1895-2023.
As for the claim that we are experiencing more extreme heat, EPA data say otherwise (climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves. According to their assessment of heat waves, they report that from 1895 to 2021, there has been a slight downward trend (I have added the least squares trend line to the “official” EPA graph) in the total area and frequency of US heat waves (Fig. 5.
To interpret the meaning of the index values, the EPA says:
“This figure shows the annual values of the U.S. Heat Wave Index from 1895 to 2021. These data cover the contiguous 48 states.
An index value of 0.2 (for example) could mean that 20 percent of the country experienced one heat wave, 10 percent of the country experienced two heat waves, or some other combination of frequency and area resulted in this value.”
As an interesting side note, the EPA site also contains a series of bar graphs that show increasing duration, increasing frequency, increased length to the average heat wave season, and a slight increase in heat wave intensity.
However, these individual metrics are tracked from 1961, whereas the composite index dates back to 1895. More importantly, 1961 is one of the lowest points in the time series.
This is a classic example of “cherry picking” the data and it begs the question: is this an error of omission or an error of commission? I’ll let you be the judge.
Figure 5. Heat Index, 1895-2021.
Finally, on the subject of wildfires, the National Interagency Fire Center (https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics/wildfires) shows that there has been no significant increase in the number of US wildfires since 1983 (Fig. 6).
Please note that these data have not been abridged but are, in fact, the only dataset available from this agency. To quote:
“Prior to 1983, the federal wildland fire agencies did not track official wildfire data using current reporting processes. As a result, there is no official data prior to 1983 posted on this site.”
Figure 6. US wildfires, 1983-2022.
It is somewhat disturbing to see that Biden either
1) knowingly misused the data issued by the government he oversees, or
2) ignored that information.
Regardless of which scenario applies, the citizens of this country are not being well served.
My advice to the current administration is to pay careful attention to the “facts of the case”.
First, make sure that statements concerning the state of the environment comport with the data.
Equally important, I urge those in charge to be VERY careful when it comes to attribution.
Singularities, such as the massive fires on Maui, are rare events but even “low frequency/high impact” events can (and do) occur throughout the full spectrum of climate norms.
To automatically attribute them to “climate change” is a logical error that must be avoided at all costs.
In short, the leadership of this country needs to scrap the malarkey.
Header image: Youtube
Bold emphasis added
Editor’s note: from the NIFC data, we can see that not only has there been no increase in wildfires, since 2006 there has been a significant decline. The entire NIFC dataset going back to 1928 shows a 90 percent decrease.
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Koen Vogel
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Hi Art, As long as the MSM don’t call anybody out on their climate lies I’m afraid you’re on your own (plus some PSI fans). You suggest Biden:
1) knowingly misused the data issued by the government he oversees, or
2) ignored that information.
In other words, he’s a liar or he’s a sociopath/insane. But 50% of Americans will support him in 2024 because “never again 45”. Strange times.
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Ralph B. Alexander
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Very well said, Art! I’ve tried to convey the same message in several reports on extreme weather published by the GWPF (the UK’s Global Warming Policy Foundation).
Science and the scientific method are indeed under attack, aided by lies like those you highlight here.
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Ronald Stein
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Why has the public bought into the current rhetoric “lock, stock, and barrel” to STOP THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS, which simulates the resurrection of the 1978 mass murder-suicide of religious cult members of the Peoples Temple, led by Jim Jones, Jonestown, Guyana?
In September 2023 , 45 years after the Jim Jones tragedy in Jonestown, President Biden used his executive power to establish the American Climate Corps, which will employ and train 20,000 young people in the work of climate resilience without fossil fuels.
When I watch the TV coverage of protesters, both politicians and teenagers, carrying signs to STOP THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS, what I SEE on those posters is:
RID THE WORLD OF AIRPORTS, JETS, SHIPS, SPACE PROGRAMS, AND STOP SOCIAL MEDIA, AND THE PRODUCTION OF CELLPHONES, COMPUTERS, and PORCELAIN TOILETS that are dependent on the derivatives manufactured from crude oil!!
As John Stossel so often said, “give-me-a-break”!
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Kevin Doyle
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Ron, it would be refreshing to see this group of 20,000 young zombies actually follow their own guidance. They should entirely abstain from fossil fuels, i.e. – no more riding in gasoline powered cars nor buses, no more airplane rides, no more touching anything made of plastic, no use of electricity made from non-green sources. Thus, no air conditioning, no Youtube, no internet.
Try running an air conditioner off of a solar panel…
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Kevin Doyle
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The fire in Maui was started by electric power lines being damaged by a wind storm. The downed power lines ignited large grassy fields which burned in the direction of the town.
The large overgrown, grasses were in fields once occupied by pineapple farms. The pineapples are no longer economical to grow in Hawaii because of the NAFTA agreement. Now, Americans get cheap pineapple from Honduras.
I’m so grateful that politicians have helped us out so much over the years!
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