La Niña Has Ended — Here’s What’s Next and When El Niño Could Begin
For the past three years we have had La Nina winters but according to the Climate Prediction Centre, the triple dip La Nina has finally ended.
La Nina is the cool phase of the climate pattern known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. This is when the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are cooler than normal but as these waters have been getting warmer, closer to normal we are now officially not in La Nina.
We are now in neutral pattern which means there will be no discernible impact on our weather. the ENSO prediction chart released by the Climate Prediction Centre our chances of returning to La Nina are incredibly low for the next few months.
Source: YouTube
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Herb Rose
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Since we have entered a Grand Solar Minimum I would not bet a penny on this forecast/guess by the experts.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Herb and PSI Readers,
I totally agree with Herb. For two reasons. First, El Nino events have never been observed to be predictable because their occurrences have never been observed to be cyclic. Secondly, the Maunder Minimum of sun spots had a period much, much longer than 11 years.and resulted in what has been termed the “Little Ice Age.”
Have a good day
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers,
And I finally remember I had another reason why I agree with Herb. It is that La Niña’s weather is only an observed extreme of NORMAL WEATHER. So if we could ever accurately predict the weather with 100% accuracy from one day to the next, we might understand what causes an extreme La NINA event.
Have a good day
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sunsettommy
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La-Nina is better viewed as the absence of El-Nino.
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MattH
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The next Major Lunar Standstill is in January 2025. We can expect a trough in average global temperatures at this time.
The following global temperature graph shows the 1998 El Nino and 2016 El Nino global temperature peeks coincide with the 18.6 year Minor Lunar Standstill cycle whilst if you count back nine years and three months from these dates you will see a trough in global temperatures coinciding with the Major Lunar Standstill.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2023_v6.jpg
At the peak of this cycle, the Moon’s declination swings from -28.8° to +28.8° each month. At the Minor Lunar Standstill the moon’s declination is 18 degrees.
The cooling related to the Major Lunar Standstill is caused by the greater latitudinal effect of tidal changes and oceanic water overturning and mixing.
https://www.umass.edu/sunwheel/pages/moonteaching.html
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Matt, Herb and others,
Just submitted this comment to the wrong article…But as I watch TV I see the same advertisement over and over. So I conclude little harm has been done by my mistake.
Relative to past three “La Niña years, the past Maunder Minimum with its Little Ice Age, and the current weather we are experiencing in Salem OR I will speculate an explanation what happens when “Solar Activity” becomes minimal. And I will be interested your responses.
The explanation begins with the recognition of the ultra-violet (UV) catastrophe, also called the Rayleigh–Jeans catastrophe, is the prediction of classical electromagnetism that the intensity of the radiation emitted by an ideal black body at thermal equilibrium goes to infinity as wavelength decreases. I read (without any reference) “Planck solved the ultraviolet catastrophe by assuming that energy was not continuously divisible as we expect, but rather that it comes in discrete ‘packets’. By treating energy as a discrete quantity, Planck was able to arrive at a model which perfectly describes the radiance of a blackbody.” For I cannot show the figure of the observed radiance of a blackbody which drops to zero well before the UV wave-length decreases to zero. So the Planck theory Is not an issue, for it is an observation (measurement) made by an instrument.
And at the short=wave end of intensity of the UV radiation, from a black-boy, very rapidly rapidly increase with increasing radiation wave lengths unit it blends into the curve predicted by the classical Rayleigh-Jeans theory. So while the total energy of solar radiation (UV, visible, IR) as measure from a satellite instrument cannot be observed to significantly change, it is possible there can be a slight change in the intensity of the shorter wave UV capable of breaking an oxygen molecule into two oxygen atom; the first step in creating ozone molecules.
Next, one to look at a generalized temperature layers of the earth’s atmosphere (https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/atmosphere/layers-of-atmosphere) and explain why the stratosphere is warmed by the oxygen-ozone system and not the mesosphere above the stratosphere. Which isn’t commonly done much more frequently than the centrifugal effect due to the rotating earth is discussed.
My favorite meteorologist. R.C. Sutcliffe, Weather & Climate (1962), in titled his 2nd chapter “Troposphere, Stratosphere and Beyond” but he never questioned why the higher mesosphere’s temperature does continue to increase as that of the stratosphere had. I make an issue of this even if one is not an atmospheric scientist, nor an academic meteorologist, nor a TV weather-person talking about the current weather and the predicted weather nor one who has never thought about these atmospheric temperature layers because one didn’t know they existed; for I believe most everyone can see they are something which needs an explanation.
But I stop here to see if there is anyone knows (sees) what the fundamental explanations must be or desire to know more what the explanations might be.
Have a good day
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Herb Rose
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Hi Jerry,
A blackbody is a theoretical concept that does not exist in reality. All objects above absolute zero radiate energy. A inconsistency with theory that has no basis in reality is irrelevant.
The UV and X-ray spectrums emitted by the sun do not come from the surface like visible and IR. they are emitted from solar flares and change as during the 22 year solar cycle. It is not constant.
Even a casual look at the graph of temperature in the atmosphere demonstrates that it does not represent the way energy flows. In order to see an accurate image of the flow of energy in the atmosphere you must divide the temperature at an altitude by the density to get the energy of a constant number of molecules. If you look at the reactivity of the molecules at different altitudes you will see that they increase with altitude. If those unstable molecules wee able to lose energy by radiation they would convert to more stable molecules.
Since the atmosphere rotates east at greater velocity that the surface of the Earth it is hard to see how the Earth can add energy to the stratosphere.
The temperature layers in the atmosphere do not exist. The kinetic energy of molecules increases as altitude increases.The molecules in the stratosphere have more energy than the molecules in the troposphere. The molecules in the mesosphere have more energy than those in the stratosphere and those in the thermosphere have more than the ones in the mesosphere.The oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere are getting energy from the sun (UV) not from the Earth.
Herb
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MattH
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And gamma rays.
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Herb Rose
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Hi Matt,
Right. Gamma radiation is absorbed by atoms while uv is absorbedly molecules.
Herb
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Herb and PSI Readers,,
You began: “A blackbody is a theoretical concept that does not exist in reality.” What was “The Horace De Saussure Hot Box”. If you don’t know what this hot box WAS’ use the PSI search app to look it up. I just did, so I know you can find what I did find. So I claim to know that Horace did exist and I constructed a more modern “hot box” and made measurements with it as he had his hot box centuries ago.
Have a good day.
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Herb Rose
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Jerry,
A blackbody is something that absorbs all energy.
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