It’s Almost Summer… Let the Heatwave Hysteria Begin.
It’s summer… so cue the hysteria.
Every year, like clockwork, the media gears up to convince us that rising urban temperatures are a direct consequence of climate change and greenhouse gases (GHGs).
Ominous headlines from The Guardian, San Francisco Chronicle, and others flood your feeds, warning of heat-fueled catastrophe, without ever asking the most basic questions: Where are these temperatures measured? And what else could be causing the heat?
Spoiler alert: it’s not your SUV. It’s the concrete under your feet.
For instance, The Guardian recently warned that the U.S. faces “another summer of extreme heat.” In a feat of mental gymnastics, they manage to link summertime temperatures with Trump-era tax cuts, as if fiscal policy were a thermostat.
Meanwhile, Spain’s scorching late-May forecast comes on the heels of energy blackouts caused by, ironically, the very green policies hailed as our salvation. When the wind stops blowing and the sun goes down, entire grids fail. But don’t expect that nuance in climate reporting.
San Francisco Chronicle’s predictable alarmism about California’s latest heatwave is designed to evoke panic, not inform.
These sensationalist stories conveniently omit crucial context: urbanization and land use changes, rather than GHG concentrations, drive much of this observed warming. Airports and city centers, common locations for temperature measurements, amplify heat readings due to extensive concrete and reduced vegetation.
But let’s take a closer look at how these headlines systematically misrepresent reality.
My Previous Investigations into Heatwaves
I’ve extensively documented how heatwaves and their definitions have evolved over time. In this article, I explain how heatwaves were traditionally understood simply as extended periods of temperatures significantly above average. Yet, modern definitions have broadened, considering factors like duration, humidity, and nighttime temperatures, making comparisons to historical datasets difficult.
In another detailed analysis, I highlight that heatwaves are not correlated with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations or emissions, emphasizing instead the expanding urban heat island effect and the growing “bull’s-eye” of urbanization that increases human exposure and perceived impacts. My full exploration of this important distinction can be found here.
Historical Context: Understanding Natural Variability
To truly grasp the nature of heatwaves, historical context is essential. Consider the devastating 1936 North American heat wave, occurring at a time when atmospheric CO₂ was approximately 310 ppm, far below today’s levels of roughly 423 ppm.
Despite billions of additional tons of GHGs emitted since then, this historical event clearly demonstrates that heatwaves can and do occur naturally, independently of modern GHG emissions.
If Heat Is the Problem…
This raises a fundamental question I’ve posed repeatedly: If heat is the real issue, how can our supposed solutions, like extensive solar and wind farms that demonstrably increase surface temperatures, help? Recent studies indicate that these “green” energy installations contribute to localized heating, potentially exacerbating urban heat islands and creating warmer conditions precisely where populations are densest. My analysis of these implications is explored thoroughly here.
Urban Heat Islands: The Ignored Factor
The phenomenon known as the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE), caused by replacing natural land surfaces with heat-retaining infrastructure, significantly increases urban temperatures independently of global climate trends.
For example, when Las Vegas broke records last July, it wasn’t due to increasing GHGs but rather because of the expansion of the Harry Reid Airport, where the weather station is located.
Recent groundbreaking research by Spencer, Christy, and Braswell quantifies this overlooked effect, revealing up to 65% of observed warming in urban and suburban areas can be directly attributed to UHIE.
And here’s the kicker: many of the highest warming trends come from stations placed at airports, where heat radiates off asphalt, not the atmosphere.
Thus, arguments such as “Detroit is greening and losing population” miss the mark entirely. They overlook the strategic placement of National Weather Service (NWS) stations, which remain persistent heat islands irrespective of suburban shifts.
Claims citing warming oceans and polar regions as counterarguments also fail under scrutiny. The dynamics driving oceanic and polar warming differ drastically from the urban heat island phenomenon. Yet, these nuances are ignored by major climate reports, particularly by the IPCC.
See more here Substack
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Tom
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Summer? Nine weeks into Spring and we are still waiting for consistent warmer weather around here.
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VOWG
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Been a cold wet spring where I am. In years past we played golf in late March this year our course was a mud hole through April and opened late, through May it has not improved. Raining and 12 c as I type.
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