Infectious Disease Experts See Sharp Drop in Influenza Cases
Even as worries persist over increasing COVID-19 cases in the United States, cases of another virus — influenza — have plummeted relative to their number a year ago.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s FluView influenza tracker lists an influenza-positive test percentage of 0.3% for week 42 of 2020 — a total of 33 positive tests out of 10,809 specimens. That’s down sharply from 2.4% during the same week last year.
Visits to healthcare providers for “influenza-like illnesses” during week 42 were also down this year from the last, though not as sharply: This week that rate was 1.2% of all such visits, while last year it was 1.7%.
Sharp drops in influenza have also been observed elsewhere throughout the world over the past several months. World Health Organization global flu surveillance shows a severe dropoff in flu cases starting in early April; whereas in past years flu cases are sustained at a steady plateau over the mid-year months — driven by the Southern Hemisphere’s flu season — WHO observation has cases more or less disappearing from April onwards.
“Globally, influenza activity remained at lower levels than expected for this time of the year,” the WHO wrote earlier this month, “though increased detections were reported in some countries.”
“In the temperate zones of the southern hemisphere,” the organization continued, “the influenza season remained low or below baseline. Despite continued or even increased testing for influenza in some countries in the southern hemisphere, very few influenza detections were reported.”
COVID measures may have played a role, though country-level data complicates things
Some experts have, perhaps unsurprisingly, cited the still-ongoing lockdowns, mitigation measures, mask mandates and social distancing orders as possible explanations for reduced flu rates worldwide.
“It does seem that the rates are lower,” Phyllis Kanki, an infectious disease professor at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told Just the News. “I think COVID mitigation measures are likely to lower levels. Some of these mitigation measures may have been particularly effective for high-risk groups for flu, like the elderly and immunosuppressed.”
Nevertheless, she acknowledged, at this point there are “more questions than answers.”
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesman Scott Pauley offered similar speculation. “We saw flu rates drop in the Southern Hemisphere possibly due to stringent mitigation measures like social distancing and mask wearing,” he said.
“Indicators of flu activity dropped dramatically in the U.S. after the recognition of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2,” he continued, “and remained at historically low levels over the summer months. These declines coincide with the use of measures to prevent COVID-19 transmission.”
Public health officials have argued that the relatively novel tactics of mass quarantining, shelter-in-place orders and widespread mask usage were necessary to stop the spread of COVID-19; if so, it may very well follow that such measures limited the spread of influenza as well.
Yet coronavirus cases nevertheless continued to circulate in many areas with stringent lockdowns. New York, for instance, was put under a stay-at-home order on March 22 of this year, yet the state was still recording as many as 10,800 cases in one day over a month afterwards, suggesting that influenza may have been capable of spreading during that time as well.
Yet influenza cases were still down sharply in New York during that time: The state recorded about a 12% positive rate for influenza tests the week the stay-at-home order went into effect, less than half the rate for the same week the year before. By the first week of Apr. 2020 that rate had fallen to around 1.7%; the same week in 2019 it was nearly 20%.
Conversely, in instances where authorities did not lock down or issue stay-at-home orders, flu cases were also low. World Health Organization flu surveillance for Sweden shows an influenza dropoff in that country similar to the rest of the world. A similar decline was observed in South Korea, which remained largely open and avoided lockdown measures through an early sophisticated testing and quarantine system.
Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, is skeptical about the conventional wisdom that COVID mitigation efforts suppressed this year’s flu.
“I think we can dismiss out of hand that that masks and social distancing are responsible for the decline in flu incidence this season,” he told Just the News, while also confessing to being uncertain as to why levels were so low. “First, why would they work for the flu, but not for COVID? Second, there is randomized evidence that those interventions do not work to suppress influenza incidence.”
Bhattacharya was referring to a substantial body of evidence indicating that masks do not stop the spread of influenza. A World Health Organization review from last year found “no evidence” that masks helped to stop influenza transmission. The public health group had reviewed 10 separate randomized, controlled trials on mask usage to come to that determination.
Another possible explanation could lie in the complex and still little-understood biological interactions between the human body, the influenza virus, and SARS-Cov-2. A study published last month by a team of Yale researchers examining interactivity between rhinovirus and influenza concluded that “one respiratory virus can block infection with another through stimulation of antiviral defences in the airway mucosa.”
Such findings, the researchers wrote, “should be considered when designing interventions for seasonal influenza epidemics and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.”
Although still something of a mystery, the low flu numbers are welcome to public health officials who have expressed grave concern that a dual COVID-19 pandemic and influenza season could wreak havoc over the course of the winter.
Whether the numbers remain low, of course, remains to be seen. “As the weather cools off and more people move indoors, and more schools and businesses reopen, we may see increased transmission,” CDC spokesman Scott Pauley said.
“What will happen this year is uncertain,” he added, “but we are prepared for COVID-19 and seasonal flu to circulate at the same time.”
Read more at justthenews.com
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Non-believer
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With the uncertainties about the current CV19’s accuracy and ability to distinguish between various flu viruses, wouldn’t it be feasible to suggest that CV19 spread has been overstated and ordinary influenza cases have been understated? Always look for the simplest explanation.
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Non-Believer
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“With the uncertainties about the current CV19’s accuracy ” Shoaled of course read “With the uncertainties about the current CV19 TEST, accuracy”
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Squidly
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That is precisely what I have been arguing with my father all day today. The data pretty clearly shows that this is true too. Worldwide Influenza testing is nearly ZERO for week 42 this year. Get that? .. nearly zero! .. Tony Heller also produced a recent video entitled “Flu Cure Discovered” ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozKl-UtVBaI ) that also illustrates this quite well.
During my email argument with my father today I discovered additional data and information from several other sources that indicate a near zero “reported” detection of Influenza. After a days worth of analysis and bickering, I am left with the opinion that either (A) The cannot tell the difference between COVID and Influenza with a PCR Test and simply recording them all as COVID or (B) They are just simply recording any detection as COVID.
Personally, I believe they are actually engaging in both (A) and (B) depending upon the specific locale. Furthermore, it is absolutely crystal clear that the PCR test is a totally bogus test for either virus. This I am certain of, any and all PCR “tests” for COVID (or Flu) are fraudulent. period.
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richard
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hmmm, in the UK, since June, there were more flu deaths than covid. Flu deaths have been tracking the 5 year average all year.
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Squidly
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Richard, that is not at all what the world influenza tracking data shows, not even close. You better look again. Worldwide influenza testing is nearly zero positive results through week 42.
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richard
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Translated from official letter from Belgian doctors:
′′ The mouth masks in healthy individuals are ineffective against the spread of viral infections. wearing a mouth mask is not without side effects. Oxygen deficiency occurs pretty quickly (headache, nausea, fatigue, fall in concentration), comparable effect to altitude sickness. Every day we now see patients complaining about headaches, sinus problems, breathing problems and hyperventilation due to wearing mouth masks. In addition, the accumulated CO2 leads to toxic acidification of the organism that affects our immunity. Some experts even warn against increased transmission of the virus if it is misused. 34 Our labour legislation (Codex 6) talks about a CO 2 content (ventilation at workplaces) of 900 ppm, max 1200 ppm under special circumstances. This toxic limit is well exceeded after one minute use of a mask for values three to four times these maximum values. Whoever wear a mask is therefore in an extremely poorly ventilated room! Incorrect use of mouth masks without extensive medical cardiovascular test protocol is therefore not recommended by recognized security specialists for employees. Hospitals have a sterile environment in their operating room where staff wear masks and there is accurate humidity / temperature control with customised supervised oxygen current to compensate for this and therefore meet strict safety standards.”…. Just so more people realize that not too funny when people can’t wear a mouthpiece….
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chris
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There is no such thing as covid19. the reason why the flu and cold number are down are because they are being misdiagnosed as covid19. It’s real tragic when they do this pneumonia cases, they don’t get proper treatment.
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Squidly
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I absolutely agree with you Chris !! .. absolutely! .. everything I have studied the past couple of months, and especially all day today would indicate exactly what you are saying. And I am now a firm believer of it.
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Tom O
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Sadly, I wish you were right and that they were ONLY being misdiagnosed. Personally, I think they are intentionally misdiagnosed since COVID-19 pays big bucks and the flu doesn’t
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Chris
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You’re right. The cdc, I believe it was, did say that they were incentivizing a covid diagnosis instead of others by offering pay outs for the diagnosis. This practice needs to be stopped. It doesn’t help.
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Alan Stewart
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Or; Flu cases down because Cov is more contagious???
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Squidly
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They are nearly the very same virus .. they are both corona type .. just different subtypes.
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Tom O
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No, it wouldn’t work that way. If you were subjected to the flu virus and was susceptible to it, you would get the flu regardless if there was also CV-19’s supposed virus around as well. You probably would contract both. The two virus species aren’t going to duke it out to see who gets the warm body.
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Tom O
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Since every test on the efficacy of face mask usage against viral infection has been tested with influenza virus, since they can’t test it against SARS-CoV-2 since no one has isolated it yet, and all have found them ineffective to useless or dangerous, it is highly unlikely that “masking” has suppressed the flu count. There would be little doubt that the ineffective testing that has driven the CV-19 count IS the reason that the flu count is down.
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Alder
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“. . SARS-CoV-2 since no one has isolated it yet”
The first to isolate it was an Italian lab in March 2020.
From that I ask, does the PRC test have exactly that definition?
Or, only a part of it common to other coronaviruses?
Or, does the PRC machine use something even less specific?
And, are mutations covered by that definition?
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Joe
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No, it still hasn’t been isolated yet. If it had been, the CDC wouldn’t have had to admit that it hasn’t been isolated. Or are you the only one that knows about this Italian lab where the flu was isolated with no one knowing?
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Shane
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Daniel you are not the only one wondering…
AUSTRALIAN INFLUENZA
SURVEILLANCE REPORT
No. 10, 2020
Number of influenza hospitalisations at sentinel hospitals:
Week 14 – 34 = 0
Notifications of laboratory confirmed influenza, Australia, 1 January 2013 to 23 August 2020:
Week 14 – 34 = 0
Healthdirect provides free health triage advice and information services by telephone and online –
“During February and March, there was an increase in media coverage of COVID-19 and its symptoms, which overlap with ILI symptoms reported.”
Enquiries suddenly dropped from 12-22/week to < 4/week
“…• Vaccine match and effectiveness – Given low case numbers of influenza in 2020, it is currently difficult to assess vaccine match and effectiveness…”
My own Government is giving me the evidence that we are actually having a flu season but continue the destruction of lives and economies.
And for good measure –
Aust Gov Dept Health website
`COVID-19 testing in Australia – information for health professionals’
“The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base. Available evidence mainly comes from symptomatic patients, and their clinical role in detecting asymptomatic carriers is unclear.”
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