How the Climate Industrial Complex Exploits Hurricane Data

Written by Dr. Matthew Wielicki on October 19, 2024. Posted in Current News

After publishing my article “Hurricane Hype Busted: Data Disproves Climate Supercharging Claims,”.

I was hit with a wave of counterarguments, many of which included graphs and charts that supposedly demonstrated an alarming rise in “major” hurricanes caused by climate change.

These misleading visuals, like those showing the number of major hurricanes over time, are designed to incite fear and bolster the climate crisis narrative. However, while they may seem convincing at first glance, they are far from telling the whole story. They fixate on the number of major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, and 5) without considering the broader context of natural variability in total hurricane counts from year to year.

Climate alarmists conveniently ignore the fact that a rise in the absolute number of major hurricanes does not automatically translate to a higher proportion of major storms relative to all hurricanes, this proportion is the true indicator of any significant climate-driven trend.

Misleading Focus on Absolute Numbers

The figure below, for example, shows major hurricanes over time and gives the impression of a recent uptick in Category 4 and 5 storms. But it fails to account for the total number of hurricanes each year, which fluctuates naturally.

Focusing solely on the absolute number of major hurricanes, without considering their proportion relative to total storms, is a distortion of the facts. As noted in the third figure, the ratio of major hurricanes to total hurricanes in the North Atlantic today mirrors the ratios seen in the 1920s and 1960s.

This point is crucial: if the proportion of major hurricanes relative to all hurricanes remains stable, the data does not support claims that climate change is driving an increase in hurricane intensity or frequency. Alarmists ignore this proportionality to craft a false narrative of climate-driven hurricane “supercharging.”

Natural Variability and ACE: A More Reliable Metric

A far more reliable metric for assessing storm intensity over time is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which accounts for the number, strength, and duration of all tropical storms, not just hurricanes.

ACE provides a comprehensive picture of overall tropical storm activity, contrasting sharply with the alarmists’ narrow focus on major hurricanes. As I’ve already shown in “Hurricane Hype Busted: Data Disproves Climate Supercharging Claims,” global ACE has been on a downward trend in recent decades, further debunking the idea that rising global temperatures are leading to more or stronger storms.

In fact, warmer oceans have not resulted in more intense hurricanes but have instead reduced overall ACE. This reality contradicts the simplistic and erroneous claims by climate alarmists that warmer seas must lead to more destructive storms. The ACE data speaks for itself: the energy generated by global storms has diminished, not increased, in the face of rising temperatures.

Proportionality Matters: The Nature Paper Data

A 2021 Nature paper further undercuts the alarmist narrative. This study, which included the data shown below, uses an adjusted median approach to calculate the ratio of major hurricanes to all hurricanes in the North Atlantic over time. The findings are clear: this ratio has fluctuated over the past century and a half, with current levels of major hurricanes being proportional to those observed in the 1920s and 1960s.

Now, let’s talk about CO2. If rising CO2 levels were the driving force behind more intense hurricanes, we should expect to see a sharp increase in the proportion of major hurricanes today compared to past periods when CO2 levels were lower.

Yet, the data reveals no such trend. CO2 concentrations in the 1920s were around 300 ppm, in the 1960s they were about 315 ppm, and today they hover around 420 ppm. Despite this significant rise in CO2 levels, the proportion of major hurricanes has remained consistent across these time periods.

This strongly suggests that natural variability, not CO2 levels, is the dominant factor influencing hurricane patterns. The evidence simply doesn’t support the idea that greenhouse gas emissions are driving an increase in hurricane intensity.

The Climate Industrial Complex: Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the alarmist narrative persists. This can only be explained by the motives of the climate-industrial complex, which thrives on public fear and pushes for costly and disruptive climate policies.

These alarmists are quick to exploit destructive weather events, especially hurricanes, to advance their agenda. The selective use of hurricane data is a textbook example of their tactic: cherry-pick statistics to fuel the climate crisis narrative and sell their so-called “solutions.”

The reality is, however, quite different. The ratio of major hurricanes to total hurricanes has remained constant, and ACE has decreased.

This is inconvenient for those who profit from the climate scare, but it’s clear to anyone looking at the data with an objective lens. The alarmists are manufacturing a crisis that simply does not exist.

Conclusion: Proportions and ACE Tell the True Story

In conclusion, while the absolute number of major hurricanes may vary from year to year, what truly matters is their proportion relative to total hurricanes and the trends in ACE.

The data shows that the proportion of major hurricanes has not increased in the Atlantic Basin, despite rising CO2 levels and warming seas. Moreover, ACE trends demonstrate that the overall energy of global storms has actually decreased, completely undermining the claim that climate change is driving more destructive hurricanes.

The selective use of hurricane data by climate alarmists is a deliberate tactic designed to stoke fear and advance a political agenda.

But when we analyze the full scope of evidence, natural variability, ACE trends, and the historical ratio of major hurricanes to total storms, it becomes clear: there is no significant long-term trend toward stronger or more frequent hurricanes as a result of climate change. The data simply doesn’t support their narrative.

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