How committed Will The EU Be to economic suicide at COP30?
In 1988, the United Nations and the World Meteorological Association created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Its charge was to “provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies.”
The IPCC became highly relevant when the UN held the first Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in June of 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Among the key accomplishments of what became known as the UN “Earth Summit” was the establishment of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with the objective of combatting “dangerous human interference with the climate system” and “stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in earth’s atmosphere”.
The UNFCCC produced two global agreements on CO2 and ‘GHG’ emissions reductions, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (entered force in 2005) later superseded by the Paris Agreement (created 2015, entered force 2016).
Starting in Berlin, Germany at COP1 in 1995, the parties to these agreements (nations) have held a yearly formal meeting known as the Conference of the Parties (COP).
Thirty years after the first annual UN climate confab, COP30 returns to the country where the UNFCCC was given birth. This year’s circus event will be held November 10 – 21 in Belem, Brazil, where the Amazon River delta’s eastern edge meets the Bay of Marajo and enters the Atlantic Ocean after its 4,000 mile journey across the South American continent, from its headwaters east of the Andes in Columbia, Ecuador and Peru.
As upwards of 50,000 attendees from nearly 200 delegations around the world prepare to descend on Belem, let’s consider the progress from three decades of COPs, the key objective of this year’s event, and the road ahead.
We begin by quantifying the change in global annual CO2 emissions from ‘fossil fuel’ use and industry since COP1 in Berlin thirty years ago. If you were expecting a decrease as a result of thirty years of “climate change” emissions reductions commitments and trillions “invested” by the advanced (wealthy) nations, we have some bad news.
Despite the enormous sums spent on “renewable” energy, global CO2 emissions are still increasing, by nearly 61 percent (from 23 Gt to ~38 Gt) since COP1.
Under the UN FCCC, nations are divided into two groups. Without boring you over the technical details of “Annex I & II” nations, it is easiest to think of these groups as “developed” (the G7 nations plus Australia) vs. “developing” countries.
While not responsible for historical ‘GHG’ emissions before the 21st century, China and India are the two largest countries in the “developing” group in terms of both population and current emissions, the latter of which are still rising as was contemplated and permitted under the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol before it.
While the G7 nations appear to have peaked their CO2 emissions over the thirty years of COPs, China’s CO2 emissions have exploded.
The United States, the 27 European Union (EU) countries, United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada have collectively reduced ‘fossil’ CO2 emissions by approximately 2.3-2.4 Gigatons (Gt) since 1995.
That reduction has been entirely wiped out by China alone, whose emissions over that same period increased by ~8.5 Gt. Today, China’s emissions of nearly 12 Gt are about 50 percent higher than the G7 nations combined.
Globally, primary energy use has soared by 74 percent since COP1 in 1995. The 176 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy China consumes today equals ~28 percent of the global total (or nearly half of what the world consumed at COP1 in 1995), with coal providing over 50 percent (92.16 EJ) of it.
The chart below shows the growth in total primary energy consumption along with the trends in hydrocarbon and ‘renewable’ energy since COP1.
How much have thirty years of UN climate conferences, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement, and trillions in subsidies reduced the growth of ‘fossil fuels’ for primary energy globally since COP1? Spoiler alert: none.
“Renewable” energy has grown nearly 2,500 percent since COP1, but focusing on that high growth rate masks the broader framing. Globally, oil, coal and natural gas consumption have all dramatically increased since 1995.
After $5 trillion in subsidies and counting, according to the latest Statistical Review of World Energy, “renewables” account for <nine percent (56.86 exajoules) of global primary energy consumption (>636 exajoules).
But biomass (wood/crop waste + crop-based biofuels) make up ~70 percent of that. This means that after 30 years and trillions in subsidies from the advanced world, wind and solar only account for approximately three percent of global primary energy consumption.
(While wind and solar now account for ~15 percent of global electricity consumption, electricity only accounts for ~21 percent of total primary energy use.)
At best, “renewables” have merely reduced a portion of the growth in primary energy consumption that would have otherwise been provided by hydrocarbons. This is the reality that greets the tens of thousands of delegates about to descend on Belem for COP30.
There is no sugarcoating it.
Oil producing nations hosting the event were pregame drama for the last two COPs, but a different form has already emerged in advance of COP30. In March, the BBC highlighted a controversial road project through rainforest to relieve traffic congestion.
The Para state government had considered the project since 2012 but repeatedly shelved it due to environmental concerns, but it was approved with a host of infrastructure projects to prepare Belem for COP30.
As the BBC article noted (emphasis ours):
A new four-lane highway cutting through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest is being built for the COP30 climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém…
The state government touts the highway’s “sustainable” credentials, but some locals and conservationists are outraged at the environmental impact…
The Amazon plays a vital role in absorbing carbon for the world and providing biodiversity, and many say this deforestation contradicts the very purpose of a climate summit.”
The nearly 50,000 attendees expected at this year’s event are also complaining about nosebleed prices for lodging. This has the developing world up in arms before the opening gavel ever drops, as a recent Guardian article noted (emphasis added):
Belém only has about 18,000 hotel rooms in normal times, while about 50,000 people are expected to attend COP30.
While Brazil’s government has commissioned two large cruise ships to moor at Belém for about 6,000 attenders, and set up a platform for Belém residents to rent out rooms and apartments, the cheapest rooms are about $400 a night for the fortnight of talks, with many hotel rooms priced at well over $1,000 a night.
These are daunting sums for many of the most vulnerable countries, who can only afford to send a handful of delegates in contrast to the scores of officials sent by some of the biggest emitters.
Civil society groups and media organisations have also warned they are being shut out of the event.
We doubt UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will be forced to rent a room in a home with no electricity in a poor neighborhood in a nearby village.
But we can always dream.
See more here substack.com
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