Government Misinformation on Australian Excess Mortality
The ABS approach, questioned by the Australian Senate inquiry, effectively reduces excess deaths to merely COVID-19 fatalities.
Both the Australian Government and ABS have conflated scientific theory with statistical data. Unlike scientific research bodies, the ABS’s role is in national statistics collection and publication.
Despite this, the ABS has proposed a hypothesis that its model assumptions adequately explain Australian excess deaths as attributable solely to COVID-19. Hypothetical
estimates have been published as data.
The disclosure of excess death data should initiate rigorous scientific inquiries into their underlying causes, rather than conclude them. By endorsing ABS’s interpretations, the Government will risk misleading the public into believing that Australian excess deaths require no further investigation.
I formally addressed these concerns in an individual submission to the Senate Committee on excess mortality, highlighting the Government’s inadequate scientific approach to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although my submission was censored, its content is reproduced below.
My main concern is the lack of scientific rigour in the Australian response to the COVID
pandemic, in which misguided government policy has caused high excess mortality.
Flawed COVID data
In the realm of formal logic, it’s well understood that a false premise can be used to validate any arbitrary conclusion. This concept, epitomized by Bertrand Russell’s famous quip which demonstrated that from the false statement “1=0,” one could deduce absurdities like he was the Pope.
This fallacy is commonly summarized as “garbage in, garbage out.” During the COVID crisis, Australian authorities have relied on flawed data to draw conclusions, resulting in numerous erroneous assertions.
A critical flaw in much of published research is the failure to cross-validate official COVID data against independent sources. Despite the availability of alternate datasets often aligning more closely with common sense and broader empirical observations, these were systematically disregarded. Such selective acceptance of evidence, without rigorous scrutiny
or falsification, undermines the integrity of scientific inquiry.
Cherry-picking evidence
The practice of cherry-picking evidence by purported “experts” lacks scientific validity. In genuine scientific practice, the collective body of evidence, not the opinions of select individuals, guides conclusions. Without proper evaluation, the Australian government has dismissed contrary evidence of elevated excess deaths during the pandemic, which is antithetical to sound scientific methodology.
Through flawed research methodologies, the Australian government has misled both itself and the public, asserting that elevated excess deaths can be solely attributed to COVID-related fatalities. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has further exacerbated this issue by manipulating raw data through complex modelling, resulting in significantly diminished excess death statistics [2]. Such manipulations obscure the true extent of excess mortality and hinder meaningful investigations into its causes.
Comparisons with pre-pandemic all-cause mortality benchmark (2015-19 average) reveal a stark increase in excess deaths during and after the COVID outbreak, far exceeding benchmark figures. This high excess deaths suggest a systemic failure in accurately recording COVID-related deaths, which fall short of being able to account for Australian excess deaths.
Unreliable COVID deaths
Contrary to official narratives, substantial evidence challenges the assertion that COVID alone is responsible for excess mortality. Instances such as the spike in deaths in England in April 2020, coinciding with the widespread misuse of Midazolam and opioids in elderly care, underscore the errors in attributing deaths to COVID [3]. Similarly, evidence from Australia suggests that a significant portion of reported COVID deaths may actually be misclassified cases of influenza and pneumonia [4].
While COVID may indeed contribute to excess mortality, the rush to attribute all excess deaths to the virus overlooks other potential causes, including systemic issues within healthcare systems and inappropriate medical interventions. The correlation between rising excess deaths and the rollout of mass vaccination campaigns warrants thorough investigation, particularly considering the possibility of adverse effects associated with vaccination.
A different approach is needed, not relying on flawed official COVID data, to address the issue of Australian excess deaths in the pandemic.
Granger Causality
hinges on the principle that a cause must precede its effect, and that the causal variable should consistently lead the outcome variable by a fixed period with high correlation.
Our Granger causality analysis reveals a significant relationship between Australian COVID vaccination and subsequent excess deaths, with a lag time of five months or 21 weeks and an accuracy rate of approximately 70 percent. In our initial study [4], we shifted the COVID vaccination data forward by five months or 21 weeks and observed a strong and consistent correlation with excess deaths, as depicted in Figure 1.
Notably, the vaccination data, extending until May 2023, which also provides an out-of-sample prediction of future excess deaths.
Conclusion
Due to flawed official COVID data, Australian governments and the public have been misled by research based on that unreliable data. The numbers of COVID deaths are inaccurate, probably exaggerated, but regardless, the numbers fall well short of being able to explain excess deaths.
Australian excess deaths may have several causes, but we have shown by Granger causality that COVID vaccination explains about 70 percent of Australian excess deaths. The issue extends beyond my individual submission.
The government’s practice of collecting data to support its policies raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest, particularly regarding accountability.
Australia requires a data integrity commission to rectify official data inaccuracies.
References
[1] Sy W. Data reporting flaw in plain sight distorting COVID-19 mortality statistics, ResearchGate, 25 August 2022.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374587533_Data_reporting_flaw_in_plain_sight_distorting_COVID-19_mortality_statistics [accessed Oct 15 2023].
[2] Sy W. Australian excess deaths: moving the goalposts, Principia Scientific International, August 29, 2023.
https://principia-scientific.com/australian-excess-deaths-moving-the-goalposts/
[3] Sy W. Excess Deaths in the United Kingdom: Midazolam and Euthanasia in the COVID-19 Pandemic.15 February 2023; Medical & Clinical Research, 9(2), 01-21.
[4] Sy W. Australian COVID-19 pandemic: A Bradford Hill analysis of iatrogenic excess mortality. J Clin Exp Immunol 2023; 8(2), 542-556.
[5] Granger, C.W.J. ‘Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods’, Econometrica, 1969, Vol. 37, pp. 424–459
[6] Sy W. Early Indication of Long-Term Impact of COVID Injections. 26 September 2023.
https://www.medclinrese.org/open-access/early-indication-of-longterm-impact-of-covid-injections.pdf
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Number of deaths by month of occurrence, 2019-22
2019. 2020. 2021. 2022
January. 13,192. 12,995. 13,368. 16,257
February. 11,971. 12,513. 12,022. 14,073
March. 13,176. 13,546. 13,624. 14,727
April. 12,993. 13,300. 13,574. 14,845
May. 14,185. 14,025. 15,035. 16,466
June. 14,658. 13,269. 14,876 17,139
July. 15,183. 14,479. 15,903 18,279
August. 15,286. 14,858. 15,395 17,698
September. 14,269. 13,689. 14,759 15,704
October. 14,010. 13,430. 14,966. 15,232
November. 12,845. 13,034. 14,032. 14,629
December. 13,046. 13,508. 14,422. 15,345
========≈===================
164,814 162,646. 171,976. 190,394
First jabs March 2021. Note what happens in May 2021 and subsequently. Just a fluke repeated 19 times??? It continues into 2023, not quite as deadly, but still excess unexplained deaths.
Source: ABS.GOV.AU
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