Global Shorelines Are Expanding—So Why Is The Media Ignoring It?

Written by Dr. Matthew Wielicki on September 2, 2024. Posted in Current News

The mainstream narrative surrounding sea level rise has long been dominated by statements from organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and mainstream media (MSM) outlets

These sources often emphasize that rising sea levels are primarily driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the resulting global warming.

For instance, the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report asserts that “it is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971–2010, primarily due to the thermal expansion of ocean water and the loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets, both driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.”

The MSM echoes these claims, frequently attributing current and future sea level changes almost exclusively to human activities.

The UN even claimed a few days ago that ‘the ocean is overflowing’.

However, recent studies, including one published in Nature Communications titled “Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position,” challenge this oversimplified view.

These studies explore the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other natural climate variables on global sea levels, revealing that natural variability plays a significant role in modulating sea level changes—a factor often underrepresented in public discourse.

Understanding ENSO and Its Role in Sea Level Variability

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

ENSO has two main phases: El Niño, which is associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, and La Niña, which corresponds to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region.

Image: Eurpoean Geosciences Union

ENSO significantly impacts global weather patterns, including rainfall, temperature, and, crucially, sea level changes.

During an El Niño event, the redistribution of warm water across the Pacific leads to a temporary rise in global sea levels, particularly in the eastern Pacific, due to the thermal expansion of seawater.

Conversely, La Niña typically results in a temporary lowering of sea levels as cooler water dominates, particularly in the western Pacific.

The Nature Communications paper underscores that ENSO-related variability can account for a substantial portion of observed sea level changes over short to medium timescales. The study finds that during strong El Niño events, global mean sea levels can rise by several millimeters due to the thermal expansion of water and changes in ocean circulation.

Conversely, La Niña phases can temporarily slow or even reverse the rate of sea level rise. This dynamic interplay suggests that natural variability, driven by ENSO, must be considered when analyzing and predicting sea level trends.

Adding Context: Shoreline Changes and Global Coastal Dynamics

Further complicating the narrative is research published in the ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, which provides a broader perspective on global coastal changes.

The study, which involved mapping and validating shoreline changes worldwide, found that accretion (the buildup of land through natural processes) is the dominant trend over erosion globally.

The data, gathered from Landsat imagery between 1984 and 2019, indicates that the globally averaged shoreline change rate is approximately +0.26 meters per year, suggesting that the global coastline is, in fact, prograding (growing outward) rather than retreating universally due to rising sea levels.

The graphic from the study shows significant regional variations in shoreline changes, with areas of both accretion and erosion. For example, while some regions, such as parts of North America and Europe, show substantial accretion, others like parts of Southeast Asia and the Gulf of Mexico are experiencing erosion.

This regional variability highlights that shoreline changes are influenced by a multitude of factors, including sediment supply, land use changes, and local oceanographic conditions, in addition to sea level rise.

The Maldives: A Case Study in Oversimplification

The complexities of sea level rise are further illustrated by the case of the Maldives, a nation often cited as being on the front lines of climate change due to its low-lying atolls.

A recent article in The New York Times titled “A Surprising Climate Find” highlights how the narrative surrounding the Maldives’ vulnerability is more complicated than typically portrayed.

While rising sea levels are indeed a concern, the article points out that other factors, such as local erosion patterns, coral reef health, and even island-building processes, play significant roles in the future of these atolls.

The Maldives’ situation underscores the need for a more nuanced understanding of coastal dynamics. The focus on sea level rise as the sole or primary threat can obscure other critical factors that influence the resilience of island nations.

This reductionist approach, often promoted in mainstream narratives, fails to account for the local and regional variability that can make a significant difference in outcomes.

Contrasting the UN Chief’s Alarmism

The contrast between this nuanced view and the alarmist rhetoric of global leaders is stark.

In a recent speech, the UN Secretary-General, as reported by CNN in an article titled “‘The ocean is overflowing’: UN chief issues global SOS as new reports warn Pacific sea-level rise outstrips global average,” painted a dire picture of Pacific Island nations being submerged due to rising sea levels, driven primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

The Secretary-General emphasized the urgency of immediate action to mitigate these threats, framing the situation as a near-certain consequence of ongoing ‘climate change’.

This kind of alarmist rhetoric is not only misleading but also serves as a convenient tool for funneling vast amounts of money into climate initiatives that may not address the real underlying issues.

By focusing on CO2 emissions as the primary culprit, such narratives enable a financial and political agenda that often benefits from public fear and urgency.

Nuanced Realities of Sea Level Changes

This new research provides a critical reminder that sea level changes are not solely driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. While the long-term trend of rising sea levels is clear, the actual rate and variability of sea level changes are much more complex and are significantly modulated by natural processes such as ENSO and regional coastal dynamics.

The mainstream narrative, often promoted by the IPCC and media, tends to oversimplify the drivers of sea level rise, focusing predominantly on anthropogenic factors while underestimating the impact of natural variability.

This can lead to distorted public perceptions and policy decisions that do not fully account for the inherent complexity of the Earth’s climate system.

Conclusion: The Distortion of Climate Narratives

The latest peer-reviewed research exposes the glaring oversimplifications in the mainstream climate narrative, revealing just how distorted the conversation has become.

Contrary to the doomsday scenarios we’ve been fed, the truth is that sea level changes are influenced by a complex interplay of factors—both human and natural, but it is crucial to acknowledge and communicate the significant impact of natural variability, like ENSO and coastal dynamics, in shaping our coastlines.

And here’s the kicker: while the media screams about rising seas, the reality is that, globally, many coastlines are actually growing.

The science is far more nuanced than the fear-driven headlines would have you believe.

See more here substack.com

Some bold emphasis added

Header image: World Meteorological Organisation

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