Global Cooling Beware the Snowman Cometh

Written by John O'Sullivan on February 14, 2019. Posted in Current News

We have been “advised” by publicly-funded eminent scientists, that the world is heating and will reach catastrophic levels very soon. But independent scientists have found evidence which suggest a new ice age is likely.

Addressing this issue is a new PROM* paper published by Principia Scientific International. We cordially invite all reader comments, which will count towards our peer review process.

*Our innovatory PROM process (‘Peer Review in Open Media’) was first introduced by PSI in 2011 and has inspired others to follow.

The full paper,‘Global Cooling: Beware the Snowman Cometh’ is available at:

https://principia-scientific.com/publications/PROM/PROM-Beatty-Global-Cooling.pdf

SUMMARY

The author, Robert A. Beatty BE (Minerals) FAusIMM(CP), identifies a real possibility that Earth is approaching an extended period of unusually cold weather.

This new Ice Age could include permanent surface ice over much of the northern and possibly the southern hemispheres, which makes those regions unsuitable for major human habitation, as is currently the case.

A sequence of mass migration towards the equatorial regions is proposed to ensure a significant human survival rate is achieved. Major infrastructure requirements are identified as well as a new system of government to ensure peaceful cooperation occurs.

We have been “advised” by publicly-funded eminent scientists, that the world is heating and will reach catastrophic levels very soon. The United Nations led this investigation with their series of “IPCC” reports.

But, what if our eminent scientists are wrong? What if the world is cooling, not warming, and is heading for another ice age, as a number of scientists are predicating?[i],[ii] Are our advisers offering any such simple solutions to such a predicament? The answer is clearly NO.

So this paper considers what is possible if the world is facing a severe cooling period.

Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor, 07/02/19 wrote “WORLD COOLING – BUT RAPID WARMING FORECAST”[iii] included the following exhibit, which is now modified to include SST and Land temperature variations through a consideration of Henry’s Gas Law (HL):

Average global temperature has been falling for the last 3 years, despite rising atmospheric CO2 levels.

21st century average global surface temperature change and CO2 rise; graph GWPF

A big story at the beginning of each year is the release of the global surface temperature of the previous year. A big story certainly but not often a surprising one. Since the beginning of the century it didn’t change much from year to year until the 2015/16 super El Nino came along. Then the temperature went up, as usual, and now it’s coming down again.

HL is particularly important in the context of “climate change”, because it effectively states that the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. This relationship is quantified by Emeritus Professor Lance Endersbee’s equation: y = 143.6x + 334.1 where y is in parts per million (ppm) and x is ^oC.[i]

The importance of HL in this context is it demonstrates that a soluble gas such as CO₂ can enter a solvent such as sea water, up to a limited amount which is determined by the sea temperature, or to be more specific the sea surface temperature (SST).[ii] CO₂ being a heavy gas, facilitates this interchange by sinking to sea level. This is a continuing process which shows the Keeling Curve’s saw tooth shape is controlled by seasonal temperature variations.[iii]

Exhibit 1. shows from 1971 to 2010 CO₂ went from about 325 to 385 an increase of 60ppm, according to Mauna Loa CO₂ records (Keeling curve). This is equivalent to an SST increase of +0.418 ^oC using Endersbee’s equation.

The “HadCRUT4 temperature anomaly” is a record of “21st century average global surface temperature change”. So the land and sea surface temperatures are combined in this one temperature record which shows a global temperature increase of about +0.18 ^oC during the 1971 to 2010 period.

Given that the sea occupies 70{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of the Earth’s surface and land is 30{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}, we can calculate:

0.700.418 + 0.30X = 0.18

X= -0.375 ^oC

So the sea has heated by 0.418 ^oC, but the land has cooled by -0.375 ^oC to account for the ‘average global temperature’ increase of 0.18 ^oC reported. This means the average ‘global land temperature’ must be much colder than the ‘average global temperature’.

This conclusion feels right when one considers the series of bitterly cold winters the northern hemisphere has experienced over recent years, combined with the evidence of low solar spot count. It is also consistent with Exhibit 1 temperature graph since 2016.

What is missing here is a discussion on how Earth’s core affects sea temperatures. The sea is the only tangible connection there is with this prime environmental driver, and the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is the only reliable temperature gauge (via Henry’s Law) that we have of surface ocean temperature changes.

Core heat escapes into the sea, and plumes hot water to the surface. This has been observed on the Pacific east coast off South America.[iv] Argo buoys are an array of free drifting floats that measure sea temperature.[v] However they are pushed outwards by rising plumes which biases their readings low, because locally hot regions of sea are eliminated from their records.

Sun spot activity is at low ebb and there is considerable discussion on what effects that may have, or is having on Earth’s climate. The Milankovitch Cycles are more specific:[vi]

Exhibit 2 includes historic ‘Stages of Glaciation’ over the past one million years, and shows that “Now” is completing a warm period illustrated by the lowest LHS grey line, and is about to enter a new stage of cold. This appears consistent with the low eccentricity and cold patterns of 350 and 750 thousand years ago.

It seems reasonable to conclude that sea temperatures are controlled by core activity, and land temperatures which are dropping in many regions, are mostly affected by solar activity. The interaction of these two drivers ensures that no two “ice age” events will be identical.

The impact of a new ice age could become critical as soon as 2025.

Ice Age Consequences.[i]

            What would happen if there was an ice age today?

— if another one came it would have pretty big consequences for human civilisation.

Besides the fact it would be an awful lot colder, huge regions where hundreds of millions of people live would become completely uninhabitable. They’d be covered in thick ice sheets and subject to an inhospitable climate.

“Assuming it was similar to the last one, then north America would be covered in ice, the whole of northern Europe, the whole of northern Asia would be covered in ice,” Dr Phipps said.

There would be a lot less agricultural land available, so it would be very difficult to support the human population, Dr Phipps warned.

And the physical shape of the continents would look completely different across the whole planet.

A huge drop in sea level of up to 120 metres would close down marine channels – the Mediterranean Sea, Torres Strait, Bass Strait and Bering Strait – and create new areas of land that could be used for habitation or agriculture.

Ocean ports would no longer be on the ocean, and anyone wanting water views would need to relocate large distances.

These consequences would be truly horrendous for life on Earth as we know it today. The very least we can do is to develop an emergency plan to mitigate some of the worst side effects of an Ice Age event.

Lands grossly affected by a new ice age are described as “Ice Age Realm” countries (IAR).

It seems that the higher latitudes are more at risk, with the northern hemisphere probably the most affected.

The Northern Hemisphere is home to approximately 6.57 billion people which is around 90{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of the earth’s total human population of 7.3 billion people.[ii]

If we concentrate on the band within the tropical latitudes, and assume this will be a survivable region during a severe ice age. The sanctuary region includes the top of Australia through to northern India and southern China, a large slice of Africa and southern Arabia, Brazil to the Texas border in the Americas, and large island areas of the India, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans.

Lowering sea levels can be expected to reveal several submerged island regions, but not before the ice age is well established.

The two development options for sanctuary are; existing land, and new land developed through reclamation. The latter option is the more demanding construction, but easier from an approvals aspect.

A New Land Development.

Spratly Island reclamation project is the subject of current development and herein described as Hamon development proposal,[iii] and illustrated in Exhibit 3.

The Hamon proposal includes: industry, management, society, land formation, economy, and border security, as well as other considerations.

Similar shallow land reserves can be isolated near existing island chains, and within tropical boundaries, such as the Solomon Islands. These areas may be suited for reclamation or for dyke protection followed by dewatering.

B Existing Land Development.

Access to existing land requires compiling an internationally agreed IAR list. The list will include countries to be seriously impacted by a new ice age. The aim is to concentrate on developing existing secure land masses, suitable for the influx of large numbers of ice age environmental refugees.

Negotiating access and compensation to existing land owners are initial priorities. Provision of water and energy supplies are subsequent, but urgent priorities, followed by preparing suitable agricultural land. Costs associated with this work to be borne by the IAR countries.

New forms of government are required to introduce smoothly such a system of relocation for Ice Age refugees. The Hamon system of government, previously referenced, may be suitable and could be developed to apply to onshore developments as well as offshore reclamation projects.

Conclusions

Henry’s Law shows that atmospheric CO₂ concentration is a proxy for SST

The sea has heated, but the land has cooled simultaneously to account for the ‘average global temperature’ reported.

We conclude that sea temperatures are controlled by core activity and land temperatures, which are dropping in many regions, are mostly effected by solar activity.

The interaction of these two drivers ensures that no two “ice age” events will be identical.

New forms of government (such as the Hamon proposal) are required to smoothly introduce a system of rapid mass relocation.

Existing tropical land and island reclaimed land are possible for new residential locations.

The impact of a new ice age could become critical by 2025.

References:

[i]. https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-06-15/what-is-an-ice-age-explainer/7185002

[ii]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Hemisphere

[iii]. http://www.bosmin.com/Hamon.pdf

[i]. http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Focus_0808_endersbee.pdf

[ii]. http://www.bosmin.com/SeaChange.pdf

[iii]. https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

[iv]. http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/18084

[v]. http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/

[vi]. http://what-when-how.com/global-warming/milankovitch-cycles-global-warming/

[i]. https://principia-scientific.com/real-data-proves-northern-hemisphere-cooling-for-last-140-years/

[ii]. https://principia-scientific.com/scientists-and-studies-predict-imminent-global-cooling/

[iii]. http://www.thegwpf.com/world-cooling-but-rapid-warming-forecast/

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