Focusing on What We Can Change
In California, the golden state renowned for its sunshine and diverse ecosystems, water is both a blessing and a curse.
The state’s water history is marked by periods of abundance and severe scarcity, with evidence of century-long droughts in the last millennia. Here, I explore the intricate dynamics of California’s water issues, concentrating on the difficulties related to insufficient storage capacity, the reliance on groundwater, and the apparent lack of political resolve to concentrate on manageable aspects rather than those beyond our control.
Since the early 20th century, California’s water storage infrastructure, primarily consisting of reservoirs, has been a cornerstone of its water management strategy. However, the capacity of these storage systems, approximately 42 million acre-feet as of 2024, has not kept pace with the state’s water needs. For instance, the major storage facilities like Shasta Dam (completed in 1945) and Oroville Dam (completed in 1968) were designed to meet the demands of a much smaller population and less intensive agricultural practices.
The recent additions to California’s water storage have been modest compared to the escalating needs, with the last major addition with a capacity of over 1 million acre-feet dating back to the completion of the New Melones Dam on the Stanislaus River in 1979. The voter-approved 2014 water bond which allocated $2.7 billion for water storage projects has seen many tied up in environmental litigation. These additions, totaling a few hundred thousand acre-feet, are insufficient when contrasted with California’s current water demands.
California’s total water use, including agricultural, urban, and environmental purposes, is estimated to be around 40 million acre-feet per year, or 95% of the full storage capacity. Thus, the state’s existing reservoirs would have to be drained completely, assuming they are nearly full, each year to support these water needs. Not sure that would go over well with habitat and fish restoration efforts along the rivers these reservoirs feed.
During past droughts, storage levels have plummeted to as low as 25% of capacity, meaning only around 10.5 million acre-feet of water was available. For instance, during the 2012-2016 drought, the state’s largest reservoir, Lake Oroville, dipped to just 29% of capacity.
The stagnation in infrastructure development, with the last major storage addition dating back to the 1970s, contrasts starkly with the growing demands of an increasing population and an expansive agricultural sector.
This lack of adequate surface water storage has significantly contributed to an increased reliance on groundwater as a primary water source. With surface reservoirs unable to sufficiently meet the demands of the state’s vast agricultural sector, and urban populations, especially during periods of drought, people have turned to groundwater to bridge the gap.
The over-extraction of groundwater has resulted in significant land subsidence, damaging infrastructure and reducing the aquifers’ capacity to store water. Furthermore, this excessive groundwater use has led to a decline in water quality, impacting both the environment and agricultural productivity.
During droughts, groundwater pumping can increase significantly, sometimes doubling or even tripling, as surface water supplies dwindle. In the 2012-2016 drought, groundwater pumping accounted for over 60% of the state’s water use. Reducing dependency on groundwater and implementing sustainable management practices are crucial for preserving this resource’s sustainability.
Moreover, the ongoing deficiency in expanding surface water storage capacity has perpetuated California’s dependence on external water sources, particularly the Colorado River Compact. As a consequence, the state continues to lean heavily on this interstate agreement, extracting a substantial 4 million acre-feet of water annually from the Colorado River. This reliance not only reflects the limitations of California’s own water infrastructure but also places considerable strain on the Colorado River system, which is itself under pressure from overuse.
Finally, the historical floods of 1862 and the heavy rains in San Diego in 1854, as well as this week, serve as significant reminders of the state’s vulnerability to extreme weather events and the critical need for expanding flood management infrastructure. These events demonstrate that California has long been susceptible to severe natural weather phenomena, independent of concerns about atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate change.
The devastating impacts of these historical and recent floods underscore the necessity for a new approach to flood management, including the construction of levees and dams, and the adoption of modern floodplain management practices. This requires politicians to provide solutions… so better just to blame the devil molecule.
California’s water management challenges, characterized by a history of insufficient storage capacity and an over-reliance on groundwater and external sources, underscore the importance of focusing on actionable solutions like enhancing water storage.
The state’s history illustrates that while weather patterns are inherently unpredictable and can lead to extreme conditions such as droughts or floods, the development and expansion of water storage infrastructure are practical steps that can be taken to mitigate these impacts. By investing in more and larger reservoirs, as well as exploring innovative solutions like desalination and improved water conservation practices, California can better prepare for and adapt to the inevitable fluctuations in water availability that will happen regardless of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
This proactive approach offers a more reliable and sustainable path forward in addressing the state’s water scarcity issues, highlighting the broader principle that focusing on tangible changes within our control is often a more effective strategy for managing natural resources and environmental challenges than hoping for changes in the weather in response to a reduction of anthropogenic GHG emissions.
Source: Substack
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