England vs Sweden Excess Deaths
A simple comparison of excess deaths between Sweden and England in the context of COVID response.
Keeping it simple so that even the folks at the ONS might understand it as I hear they are still really struggling to make sense of England mortality data (sense that fits the agenda they have been given at any rate).
Normalised excess deaths as a function of summer low of prior years:
According to the data between Jan and Mar 2020, this simple relative proxy is decent enough. Thereafter, it is clear that England’s “pandemic” response has been somewhat more erratic than Sweden’s.
In an effort to avoid stress on healthcare systems and minimise deaths, it is evident that Sweden adopted better policies both in spring 2020 and winter 2021.
Since then, there is once again, very little between the deaths distribution as further confirmation that these two countries are reasonable comparisons and that the simple excess deaths model is reasonable too.
Looking at the cumulative series, it is even clearer how well matched these two countries are in the three months leading up to the COVID era.
Similarly, the seasonal matches are also apparent, albeit with England “outperforming” Sweden at every step of the way, finishing with 20% more relative excess deaths.
Happy to hear from all the Sweden-bashers who kept telling me how wrong I was to point this out back in late spring 2020 with an explanation how this outcome could possibly be. Bonus points for proving that Denmark, Norway and Finland are better comparisons…
A reader of my Substack commented the results above were not clear enough, so I’ve gone back to Jan 2017.
Jan-17 to Jul-22. More simple, more clear.
England and Sweden are near perfect comparisons in terms of normalised excess mortality in the three years running up to COVID and the year after.
For the two seasons in between, England’s pandemic response has resulted in considerably more “excess” deaths.
Between 16th March and 31st May 2020, Sweden had 23,635 deaths relative to 15,400 baseline, i.e. 53 percent “excess”. Conversely, England had 157,464 relative to 88,000 or 79 percent “excess”.
Between 14th Sept 2020 and 20th June 2021, Sweden had 72,092 deaths relative to 56,000 (+29 percent) whereas England had 436,002 relative to 320,000 (+36 percent).
The situation between the two is near enough identical before and after. Conclusively, what England did that Sweden didn’t and vice versa is responsible for England having a substantially worse outcome.
England closed schools, locked down harder, forced healthy people to wear masks, and came second only to Israel in terms of the success of their mRNA experiment.
These policies and whatever other major health and healthcare choices England made are responsible for the unnecessary deaths of thousands of English citizens.
England vs Sweden Excess Deaths Under 60s
Following my previous analysis comparing all ages excess deaths in Sweden and England, I thought I would just examine the under 60s.
I had to really spell it out in the last analysis. Not so many words required for this one though. The picture says it all.
We can disregard the England deaths data in 2022. England hasn’t suddenly found a miracle cure (not even if they simply stopped intervening in people’s lives – or deaths, as it were).
No, I’m afraid that dramatic drop off in the last six months is simply because the mortality record keeping is so poor.
If the death has been reported to the coroner then as far as the public record goes, the death hasn’t occurred. But that’s an awful lot of deaths of under 60s reported to the coroner. I’m sure he’ll have an answer for us soon (preferably before many more die unnecessarily).
See more here substack and here substack and here substack
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