Emerging Studies Debunk the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Fears
Thwaites Glacier, often referred to as the “Doomsday Glacier,” is a massive ice formation in West Antarctica that has garnered significant attention in recent years
Spanning about 120 kilometers in width and covering an area roughly the size of Florida, Thwaites plays a crucial role in the Antarctic ice system.
Its importance stems from its potential to contribute significantly to global sea-level rise. Scientists have been closely monitoring its stability, as its melting could lead to a considerable rise in sea levels worldwide.
The moniker “Doomsday Glacier” emerged in mainstream media as a dramatic depiction of the potentially catastrophic impact of Thwaites Glacier’s melting.
This characterization hinges on the glacier’s vulnerability to warming oceans and its potential to significantly elevate sea levels if it were to collapse. The glacier’s precarious position acts as a natural barrier, preventing the inflow of warm water to inland glaciers.
The claim is if Thwaites were to disintegrate, it could trigger a domino effect, leading to the destabilization of other parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
However, recent research challenges the sensationalized portrayal of Thwaites Glacier in media outlets.
For example, a paper titled “Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica” in Geophysical Research Letters published in 2023 examines the impact of the Thwaites Ice Shelf’s removal on the Thwaites Glacier over the next century.
Using ice-flow models, the researchers, led by Northumbria University, determined that the pressure exerted by the Thwaites Ice Shelf on the land ice is relatively small.
The removal of the ice shelf could lead to an additional increase in ice mass loss, equating to about 1–2-mm sea-level rise over the next 50 years… Not the 10 feet claimed in the media.
Another paper “Suppressed basal melting in the eastern Thwaites Glacier grounding zone” in Nature also published in 2023 presents findings that further counter the catastrophic narrative often associated with the Thwaites Glacier.
The researchers discovered that despite the presence of warm water, the basal melting of the glacier is significantly lower than expected. This is due to low current speeds and strong density stratification, which limit the vertical mixing of warm water towards the glacier’s base.
These results suggest that the glacier’s retreat may be more moderate and controlled than previously feared, providing a more nuanced understanding of Thwaites Glacier’s stability and its potential contribution to sea-level rise.
Finally, a paper titled “Rapid retreat of Thwaites Glacier in the pre-satellite era,” published in Nature Geoscience in 2022, investigates the historical retreat patterns of the Thwaites Glacier. It utilizes data from autonomous underwater vehicles to analyze sea-floor imprints left by the glacier’s retreat.
The study reveals that the glacier has experienced rapid retreat in the past, even faster than recent observations. This finding suggests that while the glacier is retreating, its current behavior is not unprecedented, and similar rapid retreats have occurred naturally in the past at significantly lower atmospheric ‘GHG’ concentrations.
So, should we rechristen Thwaites “The Misunderstood Mammoth”? Or perhaps “The Nuanced Nibbler”? The “Doomsday Glacier” moniker, once a chilling title, now hangs heavy and hollow in the face of emerging research.
It appears the narrative of the ice-apocalypse driven by a single rogue glacier is melting away faster than the ice itself.
In conclusion, the recent research on Thwaites Glacier invites a reevaluation of the narratives surrounding its stability and future impact, challenging the “Doomsday” label.
While the media often portrays its melting as a catastrophic event, new studies offer a more nuanced understanding of the glacier’s stability and its actual impact on sea levels.
These findings underscore the importance of precise and informed scientific communication.
See more here substack.com
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