Defying Media Doomsters, 2022 Hurricane Season Ends With A Whimper
While announcing the formation of the latest named storm, recent AccuWeather forecasts say the 2022 hurricane season isn’t over yet, saying that there is still potential for tropical storms to form in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic this month.
However, they also acknowledge that this hurricane season has been less active than expected.
Media outlets enthusiastically shared predictions of an above-normal season, supposedly spurred by climate change, and largely fell silent as the season did not yield many named storms.
AccuWeather’s reporting is modest and balanced, drawing from both historic data and modern forecasting models to make modest predictions for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season.
According to the latest AccuWeather report, “Tropical Storm Martin joins Lisa as Atlantic hurricane season enters final month,” which details the formation of the 13th named storm of 2022, Tropical Storm Martin, there is still some potential for storms to form closer to the U.S. coastline in the coming weeks.
This comes amid reports that Tropical Storm Lisa is expected to become a hurricane and make landfall in Belize or Honduras in the coming days.
Specifically, AccuWeather meteorologists say that the Caribbean and Western Atlantic hold the potential for more tropical storms to form, due to some gyre conditions in the region.
The forecasters warn that the gyre might “slowly migrate northwestward with its disturbances toward Florida and the southeastern U.S., in general, from this upcoming weekend to next week,” and cause at the very least heavy rainfall and coastal flooding.
A previous report describes the activity so far this year as near to below average, which is unusual considering the current La Niña conditions that normally accompany higher-than-average tropical activity in the Atlantic.
This is quite different than early season predictions that this year would see an above-average hurricane season, which was tempered by a historic hurricane “drought” during August, as discussed by Climate Realism here.
That drought was quickly broken by Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm.
Climate Realism pointed out here before Hurricane Ian’s landfall that meteorologists pointed at wind shear as a culprit behind the low activity late summer season, and it seems that similarly, unfavorable wind shear is to blame through October as well.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok was quoted in mid-October as saying: “There is just way too much shear in the basin,” which is hampering tropical system formation.
This season continues the trend of no trend, and even shows a decline in hurricane or tropical storm activity. As the Earth has modestly warmed, data shows that the number of major hurricanes has not increased.
Figure 1: Global major hurricane frequency, data compiled by Dr. Ryan Maue, Accessed from https://climatlas.com/tropical/ on November 11, 2022.
Nor has the global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)– a measure of tropical storm intensity–increased in recent decades, as shown by data compiled by Ryan Maue, Ph.D., former chief scientist of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the figure below.
Global Running Accumulated Cyclone Energy, data compiled by Dr. Ryan Maue, Accessed from https://climatlas.com/tropical/ on November 1, 2022.
Overall, the AccuWeather report, which correctly cautions that the hurricane season is not quite over yet, covered the forecasting in a scientific and balanced way, without resorting to making climate change tie-in attempts, or fearmongering.
This hurricane season has seen some polar opposites in reporting on the matter, from false stories about hurricane frequency to modest and honest reporting on coastal developments’ influence on storm damage.
Climate Realism has followed this season closely, debunking attempts to link individual storms to climate change, and will continue to do so, thanks in part to good forecasting and weather reporting from AccuWeather and other meteorologists.
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Saighdear
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Yes, Martin, that hurricane that ever was? suddenly went Pooff! from heading North to Greenland / Iceland and was forecst to give NW Scotland the full five by sunday, t hen Monday, seems to have …. well what and why ? Solar activity again ?
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Saighdear
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…. and further to my comment, THIS morning on the bbc weather, it was mentioned that Hurricane MArtin will hit us , one way or t’other after the weekend ,,,, eh ? So now WHO IS telling porkies: NOAA or the bbc ? Oh I see ( not ) it’s just scaremongering in the guise of preparedness….
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John V
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I remember reading an article about a year ago stating all the major predictions due to global warming since the 70s, and exactly zero have come to pass, many were simply kicking the can down the road and regurgitating them with a new “this time we mean it” end date. I think they’re were about 40-50 dire predictions. So, that means the “97% ers” are batting 0.000, and people still spout that crap as settled science lol
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