Climate Facts vs Models, Assumptions And Falsehoods
The science of the climate is very complex and there are many different points of view. This post summarizes some of the strongest arguments of climate skeptics
1. Natural climate variability
The Earth’s climate has always changed in the past, often dramatically, even without human influence. The current warming is therefore likely just part of a natural cycle and one that is capable of reversing on its own.
2. Climate models are still in their infancy
Climate models are complex computer programs that attempt to simulate the climate system. These models provide different results and are unable to accurately reproduce past climate changes. All are filled with assumptions and guesses.
The climate is a highly complex, chaotic system and so much of it is still poorly understood. Much remains a complete mystery, which means it is impossible to accurately model. Model outputs are thus unreliable.
Remember that with chaotic systems like weather and climate, even very small changes in the initial inputs, which are many, can be amplified over time, thus making long-term predictions impossible. That’s a hard fact of life that climate scientists have to accept.
3. The influence of the sun
The sun is the Earth’s main energy supplier and its activity certainly greatly influences the climate. Hundreds of publications show this. Many of these impacts are poorly understood, and so alarmist scientists like to pretend they don’t exist.
4. Limited effects of trace gas CO2
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a trace gas that human activities release into the atmosphere. Many scientific publications show that CO2’s impact on global warming is overestimated.
5. Oceanic cycles hugely impact our climate
The ocean acts like the Earth’s giant heat re-distributor. Many cycles impact climate. Ocean currents move warm water from the equator towards the poles, and from higher depths to lower depths, thus redistributing energy.
Ocean cycles play a crucial role in regulating Earth’s temperature and weather patterns. Changes to these cycles can have significant consequences for global climate.
The heat content of the oceans is about 100 times that of the atmosphere, so even small heat redistribution changes can significantly impact the atmosphere above.
Predictions are difficult because there is little historical data available from the ocean depths and scientists can only speculate what the oceans will do next.
6. Economic consequences of ‘climate change’
Measures to combat ‘climate change’ entail extremely high costs and are especially socially unbearable for the poor.
Study after study suggests these costs far outweigh the negative consequences of climate change, which we are unable to steer in the first place.
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Kevin Doyle
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Hello Pierre Gosselin,
Your item #4: CO2’s impact on global warming is overestimated.
If I may correct you, CO2’s impact on ‘global warming’ is a delusional fantasy. The Laws of Thermodynamics prohibit any cold gas in the atmosphere from ‘warming’ anything!
The whole ‘Greenhouse Gas Theory’ is delusional nonsense.
What does Ozone do? Answer: Cool the planet.
What does H2O vapor (humidity, clouds) do? Answer: Cool the planet.
What does CO2 do? Answer: Virtually nothing but cool the planet, similar to Ozone.
Please, take a course in radiation heat transfer?
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Herb Rose
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Hi Kevin,
Ozone is created when UV light energy splits an O2 molecule into oxygen atoms and then one of the atoms combines with an oxygen molecule. This is a higher energy molecule than O2 so when it spontaneously decomposes during collisions it loses energy to other molecules adding heat to the atmosphere.
Herb
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Kevin Doyle
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Yes Herb.
This occurs in the second layer above the surface of our planet. Up there the temperature goes from super freezing cold in the Troposphere (lowest layer) up to a balmy still well below freezing temperature.
Ozone heats up the air at 30 miles above the surface from the UV light it captures, then kindly returns it to space. Thus, it is similar to clouds which shade us.
Translation: Coolant effect.
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Kevin Doyle
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Herb,
A thought question?
So, if Ozone limits incoming UV radiation, why wouldn’t CO2 widely dispersed at all altitudes also limit ‘incoming’ radiation?
We are told CO2 is miraculous at capturing radiation of various wavelengths.
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Herb Rose
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Hi Kevin,
Ozone in the ozone layer is at a concentration of 10ppm, not enough to block over 90% of the uv from reaching the surface. It is the O2 and N2 that are absorbing the uv and creating ozone. It takes 492 joules/mole to split O2 into oxygen atoms. Above the stratosphere the composition of the atmosphere consists of N-O molecules where partially split nitrogen molecules combine with oxygen atoms. Above 90 km the ratio of nitrogen and oxygen changes, with oxygen increasing causing the atmosphere eventually becoming a layer of oxygen atoms and helium.
The only reason these higher energy molecules exist is because the kinetic energy of the molecules in the atmosphere does not let them transfer energy by collisions and the molecules higher (hydrogen, helium and neon) are “hotter” resulting from absorbing the gamma and X-ray radiation coming from the sun, preventing loss by radiation.
Carbon dioxide has a molecular weight of 48 and is very stable. Argon is inert and has a molecular weight of 40. Argon is confined to the troposphere by gravity because it cannot get enough velocity and kinetic energy to get to a higher altitude, so how is it that CO2 is not also confined to the troposphere? CO2 molecule absorbs IR energy at -80 C. over 700 C, and above 1000C. It cannot gain enough energy by absorption or from collisions with other molecules to escape the troposphere.
As the temperature measured by the thermometer decreases and increases as the altitude increases, the density of the molecules continuously decreases. Because a thermometer gains energy from the momentum of the gas molecules striking it, as the number of molecules striking it decreases, there are fewer collision and less mass transferring energy to it. In order to get an accurate measurement of the kinetic energy of molecules at an altitude you must divide the temperature reading of the thermometer by the density of the molecules to get a value for the energy of a constant number of molecules rather than a constant volume of molecules. A graph of this value shows the kinetic energy of the gas molecules in the atmosphere increases, in a straight line in the troposphere and in an exponential curve at higher altitudes (no zig zagging). It is the sun that is heating the atmosphere (uv energy) not the surface of the Earth.
Herb
JaKo
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Hello,
It may be that not all the oceans’ water would interact with the Earth’s climate system directly; however, due to the ocean currents (tangential and radial) most ocean water would affect the climate after all.
Now, while there is some 270-times more water than air (by mass) and water has about six-times more heat capacity => all water has ~1600-times more heat capacity than all air, where did the “100x” ratio, as claimed in the third paragraph of the fifth point come from?
Thanks, JaKo
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