Climate Alarmists Doomsday Predictions Fall Flat
Image: American Enterprise Institute
William Buckley had this to say about predictions, “I remember participating in a forum in the late 1970s, in which the principal speaker was the representative of The Economist (the London weekly). He had been designated its ‘futurist.’ The original idea was to devote an entire issue every ten years forecasting the primary concerns of the ensuing ten years. To prepare himself for that assignment, he had gone over the futurist issues of the past hundred years and learned that there was only this constant: the predicted concerns of the next decade turned out in no case—not ever—to be the actual concerns of the ensuing decade.”
These days climate alarmists are as bad, or worse, than the ‘futurists’ Buckley talked about. The top prediction from the first Earth Day five decades ago was that ‘the pending ice age was coming’ as earth had been cooling since 1960 and the temperature would be 11 degrees cooler by 2000. (1) A recent peer reviewed paper identifies 79 ‘apocalyptic’ predictions formulated since 1970 by ‘researchers and activists’ who ‘predict cataclysmic events’ resulting from ‘catastrophic climate change.
Already 48 of these ‘truly apocalyptic forecasts’ have failed. The other 31 are likely just as wrong, but the prediction end dates haven’t expired yet, as ‘the apocalypse is always about 20 years out. (2)
The paper effectively exposes a ‘string of repeated apocalyptic forecast failures over the last 50 years made by such activists as Al Gore, Paul Ehrlich, and Tim Flannery. Activists/scientists James Hansen and Michael Mann have catastrophic predictions set to expire in the 2030s and the IPCC had a cataclysmic forecast already fail and 3 others that will expire and 2029 and 2050. (3) The researchers noted that the average time horizon before a climate apocalypse for the 11 predictions made prior to 2000 was 22 years, while for the 68 predictions made after 2000, the average time horizon was 21 years.
Despite the passage of time, little has changed across a half a century of forecasts; the apocalypse is always about 20 years out. Making sensational predictions of the doom of humanity, while scientifically dubious, has still proven tempting for those wishing to grab headlines. (2) There are some recent exceptions to this 20 year forecast: – In 1989, the United Nations said we have ten years to save the planet from global warming.
Do the math- that was 31 years ago! (4) Now they say we only have ten months! (5) – US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortex says, “World will end in 12 years if no action taken.”
Joe Biden has an even shorter time frame: “Only nine years left to save Earth.” The authors’ of the peer reviewed paper intention was to warn the climate science community about the cry-wolf dangers of repeatedly making ‘extreme forecasts’ that when they inevitably fail, undermine the trust in the underlying science. It is highly likely that these warnings will be ignored, however, as ‘making sensational predictions of the doom of humanity, while scientifically dubious, has still proven tempting for those wishing to grab headlines.’
Al Gore is perhaps one of the best examples of this. Hans Rosling, author of the book Factfulness, which says the world, for all its imperfections, is in much better shape than we might think, was on a program with Al Gore. Gore suggested to Rosling that he should add some fear to his presentation. Rosling rejected this as being against his principles. Not so with Gore who thrives on bad news and fear mongering.
For five decades, experts have been predicting renewable energy would supply 20 to 50 % of the US electricity grid. Instead its taken as long to get to one fifth of the original prediction. And to get to that pitiful 10%, that includes hydropower. “Yet the seductive temptation of ‘free energy’ rolls on, never mind about the vast infrastructure and land it takes to capture a low density energy source.
The price for ‘free fuel’ is expensive maintenance, costly transmission, extra stability charges, and eye bleeding storage costs, or an entire national spare grid for back up,” reports Joanne Nova. (6)
Steve Milloy notes that 2020 has been the wildest and most unpredictable year in memory of most people. But did the climate doom that was predicted to occur in or by 2020 materialize? Not even close. As it turns out climate doomsayers weren’t seeing so 20-20 when it came to 2020. (7)
Here are some of Milloy’s examples:
Global emissions: 1978: CO2 levels to double from 1978 to 2020. 2020 reality: CO2 only ~23% from 1978 to 2020
China & India emissions: 2009: China to cut emissions 40-45% below level by 2020; India to cut 20-25% 2020 reality: China emissions ~85% higher than 2005; India ~150% higher
Snow: 2000: By 2020 snow will be so unfamiliar people won’t know how to deal with it. 2020 reality: It still snows, in fact, lately there has been a lot in very recent months
Pacific Islands: 2000: Global warming will ruin Pacific Island Nations economies by 2020. 2020 Reality: As of 2019, Tuvalu, for example, was enjoying an unprecedented 6 year economic growth spurt.
Arctic ice: 2013: Arctic ice free by 2020. 2020 reality: The prediction was 3.9 million square kilometers wrong at the annual minimum in September 2020
Glacier National Park: 2009: glaciers gone form Glacier National Park by 2020. 2020 reality: Gone are the signs claiming glacier National Park glaciers would be gone by 2020
Someone should ask the alarmists what they got right. The trouble is that doomsday prophets are never held to account for their failed predictions, yet their alarming messages live on.
Here’s a prediction that will definitely come true. “There will always be people who make predictions, especially alarmist ones that will not come true.”
References
- Ron Stein, “Earth Day at 50: none of the eco-doomsday predictions have come true,” wattsupwiththat.com, April 22, 2020
- David C. Rode and Paul S. Fischbeck, “Title: Apocalypse now? Communicating extreme forecasts,” – International Journal of Global Warming, Vol. 23, No 2, 2021
- Kenneth Richard,”48 of 79 catastrophic climate change predictions have failed…the other 31 just haven’t expired yet,” notrickszone.com, April 8, 2021
- Peter James Spielmann, “UN predicts disaster if global warming not checked,” AP, June 29, 1989
- Aryn Baker, “If this task was urgent before, it’s crucial now. UN say world has 10 months to get serious on climate goals,” Time, February 26, 2021
- Joanne Nova, “Fifty years of failed renewables predictions,” joannenova.co.au, May 8, 2021
- Steve Milloy, “Wrong again: 2020s failed climate doomsaying,” junkscience.com, December 17, 2020
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https://www.warningmessage.org/library/msccasl.htm Climate Change and Sunday Law
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Barry
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If people want to make predictions they should be held accountable for their actions. As trillions of dollars are wasted on green energy projects that are actually more harmful to the environment than the use of proven fuels these people making these claims should be charged with fraud and made to pay for their lies. But instead they are allowed to go on and make even further rediculous claims another twenty years out with no repercussions. All other claims made by people wanting financial compensation have to be proven true or are subject to fraud charges why not these actors.
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Mark Tapley
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Hello Barry:
If we had legitimate governments performing their duties instead of the Zionist controlled syndicate running the climate change racket as well as the fake virus fraud, among others they would be held accountable. As it is however with the banking cartel and big Pharma, these elites all have sovereign immunity from any prosecution or liabilities. The only recourse is for the goyim to throw them out of power. This doesn’t work either because all the syndicate has to do is control both fake parties so that when you throw one member of the clique out, another is put in. The livestock are much to stupid overall to demand limited constitutional government.
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tom0mason
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The bottom line is that the fools promulgating the ‘climate change’ and ‘climate crisis’ believe that humans are apart from nature and not a part of nature. From this very basic stupidity these fools believe that whatever happen with the weather and the climate is fundamentally caused by human actions.
This is the gross error. and it’s an error that is propagandized to the children.
Al Gore, Paul Ehrlich, and Tim Flannery. Activists/scientists James Hansen and Michael Mann all appear to be well in to the neo-Malthusian movement — a philosophy that has always failed because it never allowed for the inventiveness of humans.
Nature and the chaotic changes that happen are what nature requires to ensure maximal life on this planet. Virtually nothing we do will change this, as humans are not the major lifeforms on the planet, insects and microbes easily outnumber us (both in number and mass).
If we are so overemotional and stupid to exile ourselves to a pathway of extinction then so be it, nature will adjust and survive.
Nature does not need humans to continue, we need to better understand nature to endure.
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aido
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In recent years there has been a spate of predictions about climate doom that somehow settled on 2020 as the date of no return.
• 2017: Businesses and governments have only three years to act to steer away from a course that will lock in the most devastating aspects of climate change.
Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework on Climate change
• 2017: 2020 is the deadline to avert climate catastrophe.
UK Daily Mail.
• 2019: The world will end in September 2020
Joe Romm, science advisor to former US president Bill Clinton.
• 2019: We have eighteen months to save the planet
BBC , July 2019.
Folks, it’s now 2021 and the world didn’t end last year.
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