Central England Temperature Record Shows No Unprecedented Warming

Written by Dr. Matthew Wielicki on July 1, 2024. Posted in Current News

The Central England Temperature (CET) record, maintained by the Met Office, is the longest-running continuous temperature record in the world, starting in 1659. It provides an invaluable historical dataset that allows us to analyze long-term temperature trends and variations over centuries

This dataset serves as a critical reference point in the ongoing discourse on ‘climate change’ and the factors influencing global temperatures.

Initially, measurements were taken from various locations, including Birmingham, Oxford, and London.

Over time, the locations have changed slightly, with modern observations coming primarily from rural locations to mitigate urban influences.

The current primary stations include Pershore College in Worcestershire and Rothamsted in Hertfordshire. This careful selection helps ensure that the data remains consistent and representative of the broader region.

Early thermometers were less precise, and methods for recording temperatures have evolved. Errors can arise from several sources, including instrument calibration, changes in measurement locations, and observer differences.

However, modern techniques have significantly improved the accuracy and reliability of temperature measurements. Regular calibration of instruments and the use of standardized methods help reduce errors.

Statistical methods are also applied to adjust for known biases and to homogenize the data across different periods and locations.

The CET record is crucial for understanding natural and anthropogenic climate influences. It provides context for recent temperature changes by showing that significant warming and cooling periods have occurred over the past several centuries.

These historical variations highlight the importance of considering natural climate variability when interpreting modern climate trends.

When examining the CET record, one can observe significant warming periods, notably from 1695 to 1735 and from 1990 onwards.

The warming from 1695 to 1735 is particularly striking; it displays a rapid increase in mean temperature anomalies, much like the warming observed in recent decades. This historical warming occurred during a period when atmospheric CO2 levels were relatively stable and pre-industrial, suggesting that natural variability played a significant role.

The modern warming period, which began around 1990, is frequently attributed to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the magnitude of the warming observed from 1695 to 1735 challenges the narrative that current warming is unprecedented.

If the warming in the early 18th century could occur without significant changes in CO2 levels, it challenges the assumption that current warming is driven exclusively by CO2.

Natural climate variability, driven by factors such as solar radiation, volcanic activity, and oceanic cycles, has historically influenced global temperatures. The significant warming period from 1695 to 1735, evident in the CET record, underscores the role of these natural factors.

Given that similar temperature increases occurred in the past without industrial CO2 emissions, it is plausible that natural variability could be responsible for recent warming trends as well.

Attributing the current warming trend solely to CO2 emissions may be an oversimplification driven by factors other than scientific inquiry.

The CET record demonstrates that significant temperature fluctuations can and have occurred due to natural causes. The mainstream media often portrays modern warming as unprecedented, yet historical data from the CET record suggests otherwise.

This raises critical questions about the models and assumptions used in contemporary climate science.

In conclusion, the CET record offers a valuable long-term perspective on temperature trends, illustrating that substantial warming can occur independently of CO2 levels.

Historical warming periods such as that from 1695 to 1735 suggest that natural variability remains a significant factor.

A more nuanced understanding of both natural and anthropogenic influences is essential for accurately interpreting climate trends and formulating effective policies.

See more here substack.com

Editor’s note: computer models predict as CO2 increases the temperature will go up, but this is what they are programmed to say. This is not proof and alarmists never mention it. In fact, some have even said when challenged that their models are right and observations that say otherwise are wrong.

Also, the Met Office webpage that displays the CETR has this text:

This version, and subsequent incremental versions, will form part of a new annual release cycle for the CET dataset in which the previous complete year’s series values are recalculated using quality controlled temperature observations from selected CET stations.

You can bet this means they will reduce past temperatures and increase recent ones.

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