Calculation of solar energy accumulated in continental rocks
Study finds that the heat stored in the continental crust shows that the currently existing climate changes are caused by natural origin, not mankind.
We developed a recursive procedure, which allows estimation of the part of solar energy accumulated in the Earth ́s crust and estimation of the halftime of the heat radiation/accumulation parameter.
This kind of parameter can show time during which one half of the accumulated energy is released back to space. The theoretical relationships were verified by the long-term pedology measurements.
When we used the Wolf ́s numbers as a proxy-solar irradiance parameter for the last 11000 years, we were able to estimate the halftime of the heat parameter of the continental crust. The most probable value of this parameter t1/2 is 270 years, which means that the amount of energy in the whole crust is now at its maximum, because of the anomalously high solar activity starting after the Little Ice Age.
We estimated future accumulated solar energy in the crust based on three scenarios of solar activity. All of the three results show a small increase in accumulated energy until 2060 and after that a smaller or higher drop in accumulated energy, and therefore a decrease in the global surface temperature.
Kalenda, P., Wandrol, I., Frydrusek, K. & Kremlik, V. (2018). Calculation of solar energy, accumulated in continental rocks. Manuscript.
On the basis of the three scenarios of future developments of solar activity over the next 80 years, we have been able to predict the development of future global temperatures or global sea level.
It has been shown that the rate of global temperatures increase will slow down (conservative scenario C), or will completely stop (more likely scenarios A and B). The increases in global temperatures until 2100 will not in any case exceed 1.5 ° C, even if people emit CO2 into the atmosphere in the same way as recently.
The analysis of the development of the heat stored in the continental crust shows that the currently existing climate changes are caused by natural origin, not mankind (Mörner 2015).
Pavel Kalenda. CoalExp, Pražmo 129, Czech Republic, [email protected]
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Joseph A Olson
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ABSURD….lunar equator temperature drops from 385°K to 80°K in 24 hours. Solar insulation on the Moon is only 0.4 meters, per
“Lunar Equator Surface Temperature and Regolith Profile” by Vasavada
Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117
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Dr Pete Sudbury
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Is this a peer-reviewed publication?
hmmmm. Thought not….in fact, it’s been presented at a “scientific conference” promoted by one of the more ludicrous climate deniers.
It is dreadful science, failing to explain such obvious observations as the rate of warming being over twice as rapid at the poles as the equator, which any theory based on direct or stored irradiance would struggle with.
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