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Alice in Wonderland science

Written by Kelvin Kemm

Our energy and environment deserve better – in South Africa and Qatar

By Kelvin Kemm

A few weeks ago, perhaps as a prologue to the “global warming disaster” convention in Doha, Qatar, South Africa’s Department of Environment Affairs took out a full-page advertisement in our country’s newspapers, promoting National Marine Week.

Alice in Wonderland

The ad showed a map of the Antarctic continent, from above the pole, surrounded by the vast blue Southern Ocean. It also promoted South Africa’s new Antarctic research vessel, SA Agulhas II.

The advertisement’s text mentioned the massive Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which is responsible for distributing vital nutrients to the world’s oceans. It noted that the truly massive quantities of phytoplankton found in the ocean are vital marine building blocks in ocean processes. All that is true, and I certainly applaud efforts to protect the environment and promote National Marine Week and our country’s research efforts.

But then, sadly, the ad’s discussion of physics content went off the rails. Referring to phytoplankton, it said “these microscopic creatures also use carbon to create energy.” Wrong!

The most basic law of thermodynamics says energy is neither created nor destroyed, but merely converted from one form to another. The only way to “create” energy is via a nuclear process, whereby matter is converted to energy in a nuclear reaction, as Einstein famously postulated over a century ago. Nuclear processes operate outside the laws of thermodynamics, but there is certainly no nuclear process going on in phytoplankton.

I could have lived with that slip up in the physics. But it got worse – much worse. The ad went on to blame global warming for upsetting the phytoplankton. In a declaration straight out of Alice in Wonderland, it asserted: “The increase in surface temperature over Antarctica from climate change is having a catastrophic knock-on effect, depleting phytoplankton stocks, melting the Antarctic ice sheet and causing an alarming reduction in all marine life.”

First, to the best of my knowledge, there has been no “alarming reduction in all marine life.” None of my colleagues are aware of it. Second, the surface temperature over Antarctica is not increasing.

In fact, a new record has just been attained. Antarctic sea ice has just reached an all-time record for total acreage. Day 265 of the year 2012 set an all time record, and then on day 266 that record was broken. The days 265 to 270 were the six highest Antarctic sea ice extent days of all time.

The environment department then compounded these errors by committing the unforgivable scientific sin of claiming a supposed increase in surface air temperature over Antarctica “is having a catastrophic knock-on effect” – then providing no evidence to back up its assertion and not telling readers what the alleged knock-on effect is.

I cannot even begin to imagine how this knock-on is supposed to alter the Circumpolar Current, which in turn is somehow supposed to affect the “energy creation” capabilities of phytoplankton. Come off it, folks.

There is so much good Antarctic science to be proud of – and, for that matter, really fine South African scientific achievements in the Antarctic to brag about. That the DEA would feel compelled to celebrate National Maritime Week by resorting to phytoplankton scares supposedly related to nonexistent Antarctic heating is beyond mystifying.

Meanwhile, over the last few months, newspaper stories have told of reduced sea ice extent at our planet’s other pole, the Arctic. Terms like “alarming rate” of ice depletion were bandied about casually. Yes, there were reductions in Arctic sea ice cover.

However, on September 18, a video posted by NASA on its website showed that a large and long lasting Arctic cyclone “wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover,” by “breaking up sea ice.” The unusual reduction in Arctic sea ice cover was due to high winds – not to any warming of the Arctic or global warming in general. NASA’s belated analysis demonstrated that a large section of ice north of the Chukchi Sea was cut off by the churning storm, broken up and pushed south into warmer waters, where it melted.

The storm also broke up other ice, accelerating drifting and melting elsewhere. Reuters finally reported that “NASA says a powerful cyclone formed off the coast of Alaska in early August and moved toward the centre of the Arctic Ocean, weakening the already thin sea ice as it went.”

NASA noted that this was an “uncommon event” and that there have been only about eight storms of similar strength during August in 34 years of satellite records. However, a major storm every four years is not all that “uncommon.” Paul A. Newman, Chief Scientist for Atmospheric Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Centre, added that such wind disturbances produce many effects and can also lift warmer water from the depths of the Arctic Ocean up to the surface to accelerate melting.

For some reason – probably having to do with its regular promotion of “dangerous manmade global warming” claims – the storm story was barely mentioned in the mainstream popular media. By contrast, the “alarming ice cover reduction” narrative was covered extensively.

Now jump back in time five years, to December 12, 2007. On that date Associated Press writer Seth Borenstein distributed an article that stated: “An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer – a sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point. One scientist even speculated that summer sea ice could be gone in five years.” 

Well, five years have come and gone. Borenstein was dead wrong. Does anyone suppose the AP will now publish an apology, admitting that its “science writer” was on thin ice when he made this outlandish statement, and saying he should not have tried to scare the public like that?

Perhaps the answer can be found in Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland.

“There’s no use trying,” Alice said. “One can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

Especially with the Doha climate change confab in full swing, taxpayers, newspaper readers – and anyone dreaming of a better life through reliable, affordable energy – deserves more honest reporting and more science-based energy and environmental policies than they have been getting.

_______________

Dr Kelvin Kemm is a nuclear physicist and business strategy consultant in Pretoria, South Africa. He is a member of the International Board of Advisors of the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), based in Washington, DC (www.CFACT.org). Dr. Kemm received the prestigious Lifetime Achievers Award of the National Science and Technology Forum of South Africa.

 

 

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Top British Science Body in Revolt over Global Warming Censorship

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Shock new email revelations show that since 2007 senior members of the UK’s prestigious Institute of Physics (IoP) cynically locked down any debate about man-made global warming. Now seasoned writer, Andrew Montford, draws on hundreds of leaked emails exposing how a clique of Big Green activists hijacked one of Britain’s most venerated institutions to shamelessly promote a one-sided version of the hottest environmental issue.

 BISHOP HIll institutional bias

In his startling new pamphlet, ‘Institutional Bias’ Montford lays out the evidence selected from a vast body of leaked internal emails. Two whistleblower insiders were the source, Peter F. Gill, formerly the chairman of the IoP’s Energy Group and Terri Jackson (MSc Mphil), former science adviser to Northern Ireland’s First Minister, Rev. Ian Paisley and Founder of the IOP’s Energy Group.

 The incredible correspondence details a conspiracy to silence any and all dissent challenging the alarmist mantra of human-induced climate change. Self-serving senior figures within the IoP are shown to have harassed and harangued every attempt for a grassroots debate among members over the global warming controversy.

 Montford, a well-respected figure on the skeptic side of the debate and author of the best seller ‘The Hockey Stick Illusion,’ the book that exposed climatologist, Michael Mann’s iconic ‘hockey stick’ graph, is damning in his assessment of this fiasco.  Montford argues the leaked emails prove, “The voice of the membership is increasingly being silenced, with headquarters staff having arranged to abolish the annual representatives meeting, at which grievances had formerly been aired.”

 The IoP is a vast organisation of 45,000 members with a multi-million income derived from member subscriptions, journal publishing and meetings. This new evidence puts flesh on the bones of what has for too long been glibly dismissed by elements of the mainstream press as “conspiracy theorization.”

We see in black and white the email evidence of how, when the Climategate controversy hit the news, pro-green elements in the IoP and British press were quick to paper over the cracks. Despite an upswelling among members for a full debate the IOP’s hierarchy silenced criticism in preference of a  “clear” message on global warming. In this the IoP chose to state “there is no doubt that climate change is happening, that it is linked to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, and that we should be taking action to address it now,” much to the ire of disenfranchised grassroots members. IoP’s Jackson was snipped by the green censor’s scissors when a version of her dissenting article, ‘Pouring cold water on global warming’ published in The Belfast Telegraph and due to also appear inThe Times,  was “blocked” by green activists in London. Meanwhile Gill’s integrity was thrown into question by The Guardian.

Gill is delighted with the impact Montford’s pamphlet is making, “I must say that the reaction so far has been largely positive albeit that it has made some people sad and depressed.”

Initially, when Climategate hit the headlines Gill played a role in helping to draft the submission, from the Institute of Physics (IOP) to Parliament. The statement reflected widespread concerns that scientists at the University of East Anglia had cherry-picked data to support conclusions and that key reconstructions of past temperature could not be relied upon. But Gill’s statement was not what pro-green propagandists within the IoP wanted and a backlash ensued when the controversy was catapulted to prominence in the UKnational press

Shaken and outraged by their experience Gill and Jackson now both choose to ply their talents within the maverick rival science body, Principia Scientific International (PSI). Both are assisting their new-found colleagues in compiling further hard-hitting revelations, including the shabby way the IoP subverted and blocked a scheduled talk by prominent skeptic, Lord Lawson. Ominously for the beleagured IoP Gill warns, “Andrew has chosen not to ventilate the whole question of how those that had the Lawson meeting cancelled got away with it… but that’s another rather long story….”

With the full set of embarrassing emails now in the hands of PSI we can expect to see a more objective light shone on this once unimpeachable British science institute. Read more  here.

 

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The Courts, Hans Jelbring and the Kiwis Bring Joy for Greenhouse Gas Deniers

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Fast-growing maverick science body, Principia Scientific International (PSI) takes three more steps closer to defeating junk climate science and forcing an overhaul of the world’s “broken” science peer-review system. In the courts PSI’s chairman, Dr. Tim Ball hammers two prominent climate scientists, while in the science labs PSI’s debunk of the alleged greenhouse gas effect (GHE) has won over another slew of key recruits including a prominent climate researcher.

 

scales of justice

 

Today renowned climate expert Hans Jelbring and Bryan Leyland, spokesman on energy and economic matters for the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC) each announce themselves among dozens of new faces in the PSI team. Dr. Vincent Gray, Leyland’s colleague at NZCSC also issued a press release seen as further validation of PSI’s indomitable stance in refuting greenhouse gas science.

  

Tim Ball Launches Legal Counter Attack against Michael Mann (& Andrew Weaver)

 

But it is at the courtrooms of British Columbia, Canada that we must first begin our rousing roundup of news. It is here that popular Canadian climatologist, Dr Tim Ball delivers the evidence signalling not one, but two impending dramatic legal victories against carbon hating junk climate scientists. Specialist Canadian libel firm, Pearlman Lindholm are to announce the filing of separate counterclaims on behalf of  Dr. Ball and against discredited climate professors Michael Mann and Andrew Weaver. Recently the Nobel Committee affirmed that both professors lied when each claimed to be co-winners of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

 

Ball’s legal team are to file stiff counterclaims in the Supreme Court of British Columbia to coincide with the announcement of his separate victories over Mann and fellow IPCC doomsayer, Weaver. Cynics will say Weaver’s qualification as a proven and adept liar who “bribed university students with research funding” helped clinch his position as new Green Party leader

 

Sadly, for Weaver his new political position will do nothing to save his junk science. Dismissal of his vexatious libel suit against Ball is the death knell of those discredited “complex computer models” touted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Weaver, the IPCC’s chief climate modeler, has fallen foul of court rules because he, just like Mann, has been timed out for failing to advance his case since it was filed in February 2011. This dismissal us due to Weaver’s (and Mann’s) bizarre refusal to comply with court rules to reveal the hidden evidence that supposedly underpins their science. Honest researchers would have no qualms over a little ‘show and tell’ to convince a jury their science is “settled.” But these charlatans must now think its worth blowing a cool million to keep it hidden. As such, for refusing to come clean both their lawsuits are now scheduled for summary dismissal, plus costs. The desperate duo are represented by libel expert, Roger McConchie, a big-hitting lawyer unused to having his butt kicked so emphatically round a courtroom. The news is a devastating blow to alarmist attack dogs, DeSmogblog and climate kook, David “jail the deniers” Suzuki who allegedly bankrolled Weaver’s failed lawsuit against Ball.

 

Yesterday (November 26, 2012) popular science blog WUWT ran a new article by Dr.Ball exposing the flaws in computer modeling. Ball and PSI are delighted and bullish after Weaver backed down over his pompous claims about the IPCC’s “complex models” that were long claimed to validate the GHE. But now the Canadian state has given ultimate legal validation of PSI’s debunk of greenhouse gas physics. In his now defeated writ Weaver tried and failed to get the court to punish Ball for declaring Weaver was part of the “corruption of climate science.” Ball further stated that Weaver was “unqualified” about climate and was dishonestly passing himself off as a climate expert when he wasn’t. Hilariously, it seems the court agrees with Ball and Weaver has removed the claim from his website. Also now given legal validity is Ball’s other claim that Weaver had his students heckle and interrupt Ball during a presentation at the University of Victoria in April, 2010.

 

Sharing in the joy is Dr. Hans Jelbring, a long-standing independent critic of the greenhouse gas “theory.” Dr Jelbring provided PSI with a further boost by declaring, “The initiative of PSI is much needed and I will be glad to be informed by PSI and contribute to the goals of PSI as much as my skill allows me to do.” Jelbring’s 2003 paper, published in Energy & Environment is seen as being much in accord with PSI science as well as that of Nikolov and Zeller.

 

New Zealand Skeptics Align with Maverick Science Body

 

As independent climate researchers move closer towards the universal abandonment of the greenhouse gas “theory” last week the indomitable Bryan Leyland showed his leadership by becoming the first prominent Kiwi skeptic to join PSI. Leyland, from the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC) is their spokesman on energy and economics while fellow NZCSC stalwart Dr. Vincent Gray is editor of the popular Kiwi newsletter. Each, along with Professor Cliff Ollier of the University of Western Australia announced their acceptance of all key elements of PSI science (see below).

 

 Canadian Astrophysicist, Joe Postma, who also assists the Indian space agency and is now at the vanguard of advancing PSI science, had this to say, “NZCSC has made an important declaration in their newsletter and we are very gratified. The NZCSC position is almost a perfect echo of the work the Slayers and myself have been presenting over the past 2 years and more. I am very happy to see this synchronicity!”

 

 Dr. Vincent Gray wrote, “In several recent newsletters I have attacked the plausibility of the basic climate model promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” In particular Dr. Gray condemned the practice of IPCC junk science in stubbornly modelling Earth as is if were flat. As Postma’s calculations have shown, it is by crassly choosing to stick with this “flat earth physics” that climatologists have gotten away for decades in duping policymakers that any such greenhouse effect exists.

 

 Postma’s work, most notably his latest paper, shows that IPCC models critically failed to factor into the mix legitimate heat flow differential equations nor did it take into account the impacts of latent heat, circulation, the Zero-Energy-Balance plot, etc. [1]

 

As Dr. Gray points out the IPCC went badly wrong because omitting these key factors was “completely at odds with meteorological science.” Dr. Gray, like Postma asserts that Earth’s surface is immediately cooled by “convection by the atmosphere and evaporation of water.”

 

 Postma backed Gray’s assessment by declaring, “My initial papers were based on exposing the inherent tautologies and abuse of mathematics and physics such [IPCC] models exploit, introducing a new graphical schematic model baseline for treating the system dynamically as it actually occurs in reality.”

 

 Thanks to such unswerving dedication to defend itself against the “dirty little secrets” of junk science, not only in the labs but in the courtrooms, Principia Scientific International is moving to the forefront as the only international science association prepared to expose the flaws woven (deliberately?) into greenhouse gas climate science.

 

[1] Postma, J.E., ‘A Discussion on the Absence of a Measurable Greenhouse Effect,’ (October, 2012), principia-scientific.org

 

 

 

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NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 301

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After the announcement by Bryan Leyland, Chairman and co-founder of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, (NZCSC) that he has joined PSI we are further delighted to publish the latest NZCSC newsletter declaring alignment with PSI’s views on the discredited science of the so-called greenhouse gas theory.

 

NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 301

NOVEMBER 22ND 2012

By Dr. Vincent Gray

 

THE REAL CLIMATE

 

In several recent newsletters I have attacked the plausibility of the basic climate model promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Its assumptions include the following.

 

The Earth is flat

The sun shines all day and all night with equal intensity

Energy interchange in the climate is almost entirely by radiation

Energy flow parameters are constants with no variability

Energy flow is “balanced” with input equal to output

Change in this system is entirely caused by increasing human-induced trace gases in the atmosphere

 

These assumptions are completely at odds with meteorological science which finds that energy changes in the climate are

 

Energy absorption from the sun to the surface in an irregular fashion, exclusively  by day

Immediate cooling of the heated surfaces by

    Heat transfer to the surface,

    Convection by the atmosphere and

    Evaporation of water.

Transport of warmed air and water by complex circulation patterns whose accurate prediction is confounded by our poor understanding of fluid flow, referred to as “chaos”

 

Energy is returned to space from all surfaces and from every level of the atmosphere by infra red radiation.

 

No importance has been established for an influence of so-called greenhouse gases.

 

A Greenhouse is a device for continuing to receive solar radiation, but protecting a small patch of The earth from the “chaos” of air movement and precipitation  outside it, Internally the absorbed radiation is received and cooled in the same way as outside, by convection and by evaporation of water. The convected air cannot mix with the rest of the atmosphere so the internal atmosphere is above the outside. As greenhouses are not insulated it cools by conduction from the air to the frame which is in turn cooled by the outside “chaos” which becomes dominant when the sun does not shine. There is no role for trace gases, although carbon dioxide may be supplied to enhance growth.

 

The so-called “greenhouse effect” thus has nothing to do with the behaviour of a greenhouse.

 

The IPCC chooses to deal with only part of the total climate, by what it calls “the climate system”

This is defined as follows:

 

“The Climate System is the highly complex system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the cryosphere, the lithosphere, the biosphere and the interactions between them”

 

This does not include the other components of the real climate, which are the sun, the Earth and outer space The Real Climate is a heat engine.

 

Input energy is radiation from the sun and the exhaust is infra red radiation to outer space. In the process the sun’s energy increases its entropy.

 

The “Climate System” is only part of this complete system so it cannot comply with the conditions for thermodynamic equilibrium, that only apply to systems isolated from all inputs and outputs of energy. There is therefore no reason to assume that the claimed balance between input and output energy should mean that it is subject to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, so that “back radiation” deriving from the Stefan/Boltzmann radiation law cannot exist which some try to claim.

 

The most important function of this engine is to maintain all living organisms on earth. This is achieved by various biological mechanisms which are able to change the absorbed radiation energy into chemical energy which can be used to provide all the pathways by which all organisms exist. The most important mechanism is the use of chlorophyll by plants which by absorbing radiant energy enables them to synthesize carbohydrates from atmospheric carbon dioxide and water. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is thus the source of almost all life on earth, yet some seem to think it is a pollutant.

 

It is possible to derive a model of the real climate by an ilustration which shows one or more of the following features:

 

A rotating earth which comes under the influence of increasing intensity of the sun’s ray from dawn to noon each day, with a decline from noon to dusk. All of the energy received from the sun arrives in this way, sequentially each day, The surface is then cooled by these processes..

 

Conduction of part of the energy absorbed into the surface layer, both solid and liquid.

 

Conduction of part of the heat to the layer of air next to the surface, its removal as it rises and its replacement by another layer. This is called convection and its influence is enhanced by turbulence particularly over land and by the development of complex air movements which carry the air around the entire air and convey the heat up into the atmosphere. This responsible for the Lapse Rate, as the temperature declines all the way to the tropopause as the additional energy in the atmosphere is progressively radiated outwards.

 

The surface is also cooled by evaporation of water, mainly from the oceans, thus removing latent heat. This heat is recovered, warming the atmosphere as the air reaches the dew point temperature higher in the atmosphere, Some of it will form liquid water, snow or hail, whose precipitation will, by day, further cool the Earth surface which is warmer than the region of the clouds. By night the precipitation may even warm the cooling surface, or there may be deposition of frost or dew which also warms the surface.

 

Finally, the surfaces radiate heat to space, and by night, cool until the next dawn, Also each layer of gas radiates to space. The Stefan/Boltzmann law states that radiation from gas goes in all directions, so there is “back radiation” which gets incorporated with the rest. Also the Law states that the emission energy is proportional to the fourth power of the absolute temperature. This means that most outwards radiation is from daytime surfaces, particularly from the tropics, and radiation from the atmosphere is greatest in the layer closest to the earth. This is the layer that constitutes our weather and is the basis of our weather forecasting system.

 

It is possible that changes on the so-called :greenhouse gases: may play a role in this system, but there is currently no evidence to support a belief that such an influence could be important despite the tremendous amount of effort that has been put in the attempt to show it. It would in any case largely involve water vapour, as another influence in addition to its vital role in latent heat transfer.

 

An influence of trace gases is currently covered up by the vagaries of the chaos: associated with air and ocean movements. The main object of the rather absurd IPCC model is that it avoids the influence of “chaos” by pretending it does not exist.

 

I have tried to provide a diagram of the Real Climate I describe but I am no good at all at using computer draw programmes. I hope this might inspire one or other of you to provide a convincing diagram of the real climate

 

I also attach a diagram of the lapse rate which is actually a very useful supplement to any diagram of the climate based on the realities I have described.

 

Cheers

 

Vincent Gray

Prof. Cliff Ollier
School of Earth and Environment
University of Western Australia

 

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Joe Postma:Taking Climate Back from the Flat Earthers

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Third-rate science has long been welcome in climatology. It has been deliberately modeling our Earth as flat for 50 years; all to hide the fictional effect  described by the  ‘greenhouse gas theory.’ In his latest stunning analysis astrophysicist, Joe Postma again demonstrates why it’s so dangerous to trust government climate science.

BEST FLAT EARTH

The New Religion of Climate Change. The Old Boss is the Same as the New, Part 1

by Joseph E. Postma

Setting the Landscape

As we have learned in my ongoing series on the fraud of the atmospheric greenhouse effect, climate pseudoscience invented an artificial, fictional scheme by which the atmosphere can heat itself up without the Sun, so that they could create an alarmist political movement to vilify the life-creating-gas of carbon dioxide.  What we are going to learn now is that this is not just a political movement. It is something much more profound.

I first want to speak on the level of insanity that we’re dealing with on this issue:  The people who believe in the greenhouse effect, believe it makes no difference to think of the planet as either flat, or spherical, and they believe that a flat planet Earth must actually do a better job at explaining the “average system” than a spherical planet Earth.  They believe it makes no difference whether we model the input power of sunshine at -18oC, or at +49oC.

They believe that if you fictionalize the input power of the Sun to -18oC, on average, on a flat Earth, and then create a greenhouse effect to explain why it is so much warmer than this on the ground, that this is a more valid way of thinking about the planet Earth than its reality of actually being spherical with +49oC of heating input.  I have literally had to write out differential calculus equations proving that the Earth can be modeled as a sphere, and with real-time power from the Sun, and that it makes things very hot, and that this produces wildly different results than a flat Earth requiring the invention of a greenhouse effect.  But still, some people prefer to believe in thinking of the planet as flat.

That is as simple as my criticism is:  I look at the standard atmospheric greenhouse schematic and energy budget from climate science, see that it has a flat Earth and that sunshine is cold, and so I ask, “What difference does it make if you treat sunshine as hot, its real strength, and the Earth as a rotating sphere?”

That is the entire essence of my criticism.  Do these things make a difference?  Why wouldn’t they? Read more from this remarkable scientist here.

 

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