Analyst Suggests China Will Dominate Global Nuclear Energy Through 2035
The future of nuclear energy is in China’s hands. While the United States remains the world’s largest nuclear energy producer, China’s sector is growing so rapidly that it is expected to overtake both France and the United States to become the world’s leading nuclear power producer within the next decade
In addition to this rapid expansion of traditional nuclear power capacity, Beijing has also quickly become the global leader in a broad and diverse range of advanced nuclear power technologies.
“By a wide margin, China will have the world’s most dynamic and significant nuclear industry through 2035,” Damien Ma, energy lead analyst for Gavekal Technologies, wrote in a recent report, as quoted by the South China Morning Post.
“Construction efficiencies mean China can build a new plant in about six years, compared with more than a decade for the latest Vogtle reactors in the US,” Ma went on to say.
The United States has added just one nuclear plant in the last decade, Georgia’s long-delayed, over-budget, and controversial Plant Vogtle. Over the same time, China added a staggering 34 gigawatts of capacity.
And Beijing’s latest five-year plan shows that China has no intention of slowing down.
“With innovation and security as its leading themes, the latest FYP illuminates how nuclear energy underpins multiple strategic priorities for China in the context of not only energy security but also technological innovation and global engagement,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonprofit policy research organization and bipartisan think tank, recently reported.
The Chinese government has been eager to build the world’s most advanced nuclear power sector as part of Beijing’s broader bid to establish lasting dominance in the global energy sector by becoming the world’s first electrostate.
Building the world’s most advanced nuclear energy fleet is a part of this goal, and includes innovative approaches to how nuclear reactors are designed, deployed, and fueled.
“From the world’s first in-reactor thorium breeding confirmation to a dual PWR-HTGR plant and commercial supercritical [CO2 waste-heat power generation], China is assembling a vertically integrated advanced nuclear ecosystem,” Power Magazine reported in March of this year.
“The breadth of activity signals a coordinated push toward fuel independence and industrial deployment.”
The United States has also been bullish about building up and advancing its ageing nuclear sector. The Trump administration has publicized its intention to “produce lasting American dominance in the global nuclear energy market”; it is also bullish on developing next-gen nuclear reactors and nuclear fusion technology on its home turf.
Like China, the United States is also fighting to free itself from international nuclear fuel supply chains, and is attempting to do so by building up domestic uranium extraction and enrichment capacities.
But the United States’ advanced nuclear sector lags far behind China in spending and technological know-how.
And while China has historically been quite secretive about its technological advancements and cutting-edge energy sector developments, Beijing made a surprising move this week to share its expertise with the rest of the world.
This week, China signed a deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to share its knowledge more freely on high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) with other countries.
HTGRs are a form of advanced fourth-generation reactor that is capable of producing nuclear energy at extremely high temperatures, opening avenues for use in a variety of industrial applications.
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Header image: Financial Times