AMOC Current Stability Defies Climate Predictions

Written by Dr. Matthew Wielicki on September 16, 2024. Posted in Current News

A new Nature Communications paper titled “Florida Current Transport Observations Reveal Four Decades of Steady State” provides a long-term analysis of the Florida Current, a major component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Contrary to frequent claims in the media about a weakening AMOC due to ‘climate change’, the study finds that the Florida Current has remained steady over the past four decades.

This directly contradicts alarmist narratives, which often highlight the imminent collapse of ocean currents as a result of global warming.

Dissecting the Paper: Florida Current and AMOC

The paper focuses on direct transport observations of the Florida Current from 1982 to 2022. The data shows no significant long-term trend, suggesting that the Florida Current’s strength has remained stable over the 40-year period, despite projections that ‘climate change’ would drastically weaken the AMOC.

This finding is important because the AMOC, which transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, is often portrayed as on the brink of collapse in MSM. Such a collapse is frequently linked to catastrophic weather changes, including a deep freeze in Europe or more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Past predictions regarding the weakening of the AMOC were flawed due to incomplete data and oversimplified models.

The Nature Communications paper specifically notes that early projections failed to account for complex seasonal and annual fluctuations in the Florida Current.

Additionally, past measurements relied on electromagnetic data, which needed corrections for variations in the Earth’s magnetic field. These inaccuracies, combined with sparse datasets, led to false assumptions about long-term trends.

The paper’s 40-year analysis of direct observations reveals the stability of the Florida Current, contradicting prior predictions of weakening.

This challenges the narrative of an imminent AMOC collapse and throws into question many of the extreme predictions commonly seen in the media.

Questioning the Alarmist Narratives

This paper highlights a growing disconnect between scientific data and the MSM’s portrayal of ‘climate change’. The stability of the Florida Current challenges the notion that all components of Earth’s climate system are degrading rapidly due to human activity.

It raises questions about how well media outlets and policymakers understand the scientific complexities behind ocean currents, ‘climate feedbacks’, and long-term trends.

One of the key messages constantly pushed by climate alarmists is that human-induced warming is destabilizing critical components of the Earth’s climate system. The AMOC is often singled out as one such component.

Yet, this study, based on four decades of direct observations, shows that one of the key drivers of AMOC—the Florida Current—remains steady, even as global temperatures have increased.

If the Florida Current is stable, as this paper suggests, it forces us to rethink the broader claims about imminent AMOC collapse.

The Disconnect Between Science and Public Perception

This study serves as a reminder that the science of ‘climate change’ is far from settled, despite what many alarmist headlines suggest.

The media’s tendency to latch onto worst-case scenarios, like a collapsing AMOC, often misrepresents the actual state of the science.

In reality, climate systems like ocean currents are far more resilient and complex than the simplified narratives pushed by activists and many journalists.

I have often discussed the dangers of reducing complex climate systems to simplistic, linear narratives. The findings from this study serve as a prime example of why such a nuanced perspective is necessary.

Implications for Climate Policy

If ocean currents like the Florida Current are not weakening, then some of the most extreme climate policies proposed today may be based on incomplete or inaccurate science, and climate models and predictions need to be constantly scrutinized and updated based on new data.

Blindly accepting media narratives about impending disasters without engaging with the actual science can lead to poor policy decisions, both economically and environmentally.

In the media, the collapse of the AMOC is often linked to disastrous outcomes like stronger hurricanes, ice-free Arctic summers, and extreme winter storms in Europe. Yet, the reality—as shown in this paper—is far more complex.

The Florida Current’s stability suggests that the AMOC may not be as vulnerable to rapid change as previously thought, which calls into question the need for immediate, radical interventions based on worst-case scenarios.

Conclusion: Time for a Rethink

Science is an ongoing process, not a fixed set of conclusions. The Florida Current’s steadiness over four decades underscores the importance of continually updating our understanding of climate systems based on new, long-term data.

The media’s alarmist portrayals of a collapsing AMOC are not supported by this new evidence, and it’s time to question how such narratives influence public perception and policy.

This paper exemplifies the need for more critical thinking and less fear-mongering when it comes to climate science.

The gap between what the data shows and what the media claims is widening, and this serves as a perfect example of why the settled science narrative in climate is anything but.

It’s time to rethink the way we approach climate discourse, focusing on evidence-based analysis rather than sensationalist headlines.

Let’s look at the science critically and demand more from those who claim to be informing us.

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