A Long-Running ‘Paradox’: Evaporation Is Declining Even As Temperatures Rise
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Evaporation is supposed to increase with warming. But, per a new study (Jin et al., 2024), “observation results around the world have shown that evaporation has been steadily declining since the 1950s.” [emphasis, links added]
This is referred to as the anthropogenic global warming “evaporation paradox” problem, where models and assumptions are contradicted by observations.
According to the IPCC (AR6) and the most seminal paper on the subject (Trenberth, 2011, with 3800 citations), “anthropogenic forcings will drive an increase in global mean evaporation over most oceanic areas (high confidence),” as “increased heating leads to greater evaporation.”
However, the new paper once again points out that observations conflict with the anthropogenic global warming narrative.
“Paradoxically, against the backdrop of rising global temperatures, terrestrial observation results around the world have shown that Epan has been steadily declining since the 1950s…”
“The ‘evaporation paradox’ phenomenon has been reported in many studies on regional or global scales.”
The authors acknowledge it is “widely proposed” that there will be “increased evaporation in open water bodies” with warming. So their results, which show declining evaporation since the 1950s, may “seem surprising.”
“At first glance, these results may seem surprising, since the near-surface air temperature has been rising, and it is widely proposed that warming climate will make the air drier and promote the hydrological cycle, which will lead to increased evaporation in open water bodies, including pan evaporators.”
If it can indeed be established that evaporation increases with warming, and simultaneously, evaporation trends can be shown to be declining, at what point do we question if there has indeed been sufficiently significant warming in the regions where evaporation is declining?
- Why is referring to these trends as a surprising “paradox” that can perhaps be explained away with more assumptions the better option?
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Maurice Lavigne
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The rate of evaporation is controlled by the water temperature, not the air above.
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MattH
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Every one degree C increase in ocean temperature increases evaporation by 10
to 25 %.
!0% in colder water and 25% near the equator. Hence a lot of snow recently.
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MattH
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The paradox is warmer ocean temperatures could cause glacier growth.
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D. Boss
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There is no paradox. No weasel words to combat this contradiction between an hypothesis and actual empirical data. Quite simply, if data contradicts theory or hypothesis, then the theory/hypothesis is wrong – period. That is the scientific method, with no room for paradox, more assumptions or any other weasel wording.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcMJSVBnqYA (Richard Feynman, When theory disagrees with experiment)
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Tom
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I know, let’s ask one of those retarded A/I creatures. Oops…we just did.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Maurice and MattH,
The publisher, Louis Elzevir, of Galileo’s famous book wrote a preface to this book. And in this preface Elzevir wrote that a common saying in 1638 was ‘Intuitive knowledge keeps pace with accurate definition.” This has been translated to English by Crew and de Salvio (1914)
The article’s opening statement does not define what is warming but your comments do. However, Matt is pulling numbers out of a hat and neither attempts to define the air in contact with the warm water’s surface. This air has a dew point temperature and the relationship between this temperature and the water’s temperature will be a critical factor as to the rate of evaporation. And I believe velocity of the wind to that of the water could be another factor. So until these factors are analyzed one cannot conclude there is a paradox. Another factor that needs to be considered is the purity of the water.
Have a good day.
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MattH
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Hi Jerry. I was only parroting what my friend tells me about temperature and evaporation rates. We have many stimulating conversations, as I drive the mile to the wharf every morning to see who is out fishing and he is there walking his dog.
His company does marine and wind forecasts for the New Zealand Meteorological Service. His Doctorate degree is in oceanography.
He told me about the semi permanent lightening strikes over Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catatumbo_lightning
The concept of a warmer ocean leading to more snowfall in turn leading to increased glaciation is my own devilish imaginary concoction. Paradox.
Be happy.
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Richard
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“The authors acknowledge it is “widely proposed” that there will be “increased evaporation in open water bodies” with warming”
And as there hasn’t, just maybe warming hasn’t actually increased but only manipulated upwards as Steve Heller often reports on .
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