How has the Sun’s energy changed over the last 45 years?
Sun-monitoring instruments on satellites describe the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun in terms of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI).
These satellite measurements show that the average TSI reaching the Earth is around 1360-1365 Watts per meter squared (W/m2). They also show the TSI rises and falls slightly over the course of a sunspot cycle (roughly 8-13 years).
However, most of the satellite missions only last for around 1 to 2 sunspot cycles. Therefore, in order to study the changes in TSI for longer than 10-15 years, scientists need to composite, or “stitch together”, the TSI measurements from multiple satellite missions.
For more than 20 years, there has been ongoing scientific controversy between rival scientific teams on how to best composite the TSI missions into a continuous record for the entire satellite era, i.e., from 1978 to the present.
For example, the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring (ACRIM) team in charge of the NASA ACRIM satellite project took the approach of using the data as provided by the satellite mission science teams.
In contrast, the Physical Meteorological Observatory in Davos (PMOD) team applied various data adjustments to each of the satellite missions before constructing their composite.
The ACRIM composite suggested that as well as the changes in TSI over the course of a sunspot cycle, there are also long-term changes in TSI between sunspot cycles. It suggested the possibility that these long-term changes in TSI could be contributing to global warming.
However, the PMOD composite suggested that TSI does not change much between sunspot cycles. It ruled out the possibility of TSI changes being a major factor in global warming.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s latest reports explicitly favored composites like PMOD’s over ACRIM’s.
A major study, led by the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (www.CERES-Science.com), has just been published that revisits this long-standing scientific controversy and provides important new insights that could change our understanding of the long-term changes in TSI over timescales longer than 10-15 years.
This new peer-reviewed paper was published in the prestigious journal, The Astrophysical Journal, founded in 1895, it remains one of the top journals in astronomy and astrophysics.
The scientists in the team reanalyzed all the available satellite data from the first Nimbus 7 mission to the currently active missions on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor 1 (TSIS-1) on the International Space Station (ISS).
They updated several of the older composites, as well as developing a wide range of new composites. In total, they found 21 different composites for the satellite era – including the 4 existing composites currently used by the scientific community.
Using common statistical techniques, these 21 composites were sorted into 6 main composite groups – labelled “A” to “F”, as seen in the chart below:
One group (“A”) matches very well to the PMOD composite and to the various solar activity datasets used in the IPCC’s most recent report. This group implies that there has been little or no contribution of the Sun to any of the global warming during the satellite era, i.e., since 1978.
Two groups (“B” and “C”) agree with the original ACRIM composite that had implied that solar activity might have contributed to global warming in the 1980s and 1990s, but that solar activity had since declined.
However, two other groups (“D” and “E”) suggest a new history of TSI variability in the satellite era. They agree with ACRIM that solar activity might have contributed to global warming in the 1980s and 1990s and that solar activity slightly decreased since the early 2000s.
But, unlike ACRIM, they suggest that solar activity is still higher than in the 1980s and therefore might still be contributing to global warming.
The sixth group (“F”) – that is the only group that does not include any of the satellite data associated with the original PMOD team – suggests that solar activity has continued to increase throughout all four of the solar minima during the satellite era so far.
It also confirms that the current ongoing solar maximum is already higher than the last cycle. If this composite group is correct, it would completely change our current understanding of how solar activity has changed over the last 45 years.
The team behind this new paper were shocked at how many completely different plausible composites could be generated from the available satellite data as provided by the satellite mission science teams.
See more here ceres-science.com
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David Hamilton Russell
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The issue is not TOA insolation, but rather surface insolation.
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Herb Rose
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What is misunderstood is that visible and infrared radiation, that heat the surface of the Earth, are produced by the sun’s surface while the shorter x-ray and uv radiation that heat the atmosphere (All matter absorbs radiated energy so just because the atmosphere does not absorb the same energy as the surface does not mean it is not being heated by the sun.) are emitted by solar flares. The shift in the solar cycle is a change in what is absorbing the radiated energy, not in the energy coming from the sun. The reason sun spots appear black is because the energy has shifted from visible light to black light (uv).
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Jerry Krause
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Hi David, Herb and Readers,
Herb is correct when he states: “All matter absorbs radiated energy so just because the atmosphere does not absorb the same energy as the surface does not mean it is not being heated by the sun.” But he doesn’t state that we have observed this because we observe the stratosphere and atmosphere at the atmosphere beyond the mesosphere where the molecules are reduced to atoms which eventually recombine to form moles when the sun’s photons are not dense enough to keep decomposing the molecules and electrons far from any star where fusion is occurring because of gravity. Goodgoing Herb.
Have a good day
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers,
I ask: How can the Ceres Team, supposedly intelligent people, write this article about measuring changes in the sun’s emissions relative to the question of global warming and ignore the simply observed facts of how clouds effect (influence) the intensity of the Sun’s emissions that reach the Earth’s surface?
Have a good day
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David Hamilton Russell
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My earlier post makes this point (It’s surface insolation that counts, not TOA insolation). There are many such flaws in the AGW story. Upton Sinclair said it best, “It is impossible for a man to understand that which his job depends on his not understanding.”
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Jerry Krause
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Hi David,
While I maybe recognize the name, I have no idea of what Upton Sinclair did to improve living conditions for people. I believe I have read “Ignorance is bliss” but totally disagree.
Have a good day
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David Hamilton Russell
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I never said Upton Sinclair improved living conditions. Wikipedia has a big section on him, so no need to remain ignorant.
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