Historical Data vs. Modern Hysteria: The Truth About Hurricanes
Hurricane Beryl recently made history as the earliest hurricane to reach Category 4 intensity on record, with significant strengthening occurring in late June 2024
However, it’s crucial to recognize that our ability to accurately measure and scale the power of hurricanes primarily began with the advent of satellite technology in the mid-20th century and our knowledge continues to evolve.
Before this era, hurricane records, particularly those over open water, were less reliable and often based on ship reports and coastal observations, which lacked the precision of modern satellite data.
When examining the best available long-term data, such as the record of U.S. landfalling hurricanes since 1900, there is no clear trend in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.
This perspective is essential when considering claims about the increasing power and frequency of hurricanes due to climate change. The variability observed in hurricane data over such a short period (relative to Earth’s 4.5 billion-year history) makes it impossible to draw definitive conclusions about long-term trends without considering the broader historical context.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) acknowledge no significant trend in the frequency or intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report states:
“There is low confidence in long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity.”
NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory finds “We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.”
The plot below from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), illustrates the number of hurricanes in the North Atlantic from 1878 to 2022, with three distinct lines representing total hurricanes (adjusted and unadjusted) and hurricanes reaching the United States.
Key observations include:
- Total Hurricanes (Adjusted and Unadjusted):
- There is significant variability in hurricane counts over the years, but no clear long-term upward or downward trend is evident.
- Hurricanes Reaching the United States:
- The red line indicates hurricanes making landfall in the U.S., which also shows variability but no consistent long-term trend.
The data underscores that while there have been fluctuations in hurricane frequency, there is no definitive trend in the intensity or frequency of hurricanes, particularly in the North Atlantic, over the observed period.
In conclusion, while Hurricane Beryl’s early-season strength is noteworthy, it underscores the importance of contextualizing such events within the limits of our observational record.
Most of the panic over ‘climate change’ often centers on obscure metrics, such as the precise timing of a hurricane reaching Category 4 strength, and ignores the broader picture that shows ‘climate change’ has had little effect on the frequency and intensity of hurricanes.
The variability in the data, coupled with admissions from both the IPCC and NOAA, suggests that there is no significant trend in North Atlantic hurricanes, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of climate impacts rather than sensationalized interpretations.
See more here substack.com
Header image: VOA News
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