Climate Alarmists: Catastrophizing Every Weather Event
“Catastrophizing” the weather refers to the exaggerated portrayal or emphasis on the severity, frequency, or implications of weather events beyond what scientific data and historical context might suggest
In essence, it involves making a weather event seem more disastrous or exceptional than it truly is.
Over time, consistent exaggeration can erode public trust in weather forecasts and warnings.
If people believe that threats are frequently overblown, they may become complacent and fail to take necessary precautions during genuinely severe events.
If authorities act on exaggerated weather forecasts, it could lead to the unnecessary allocation of resources, diverting them from regions or times where they might be genuinely needed.
The constant exposure to exaggerated disaster threats can induce unnecessary fear and anxiety among the public, potentially affecting mental well-being.
If every weather event is portrayed as a catastrophe, it becomes challenging for the public to discern which events pose genuine threats. This can dilute the urgency of actual severe weather warnings.
In the context of climate change, while it’s important to communicate the real risks associated with a warming planet, it’s equally essential to avoid undue alarmism.
Balanced, accurate communication ensures that the public remains informed, however, that is not what we commonly see.
For example, the recent rains in NYC have been attributed to significant climatic shifts.
Meet The Alarmists:
What does the IPCC say about heavy precipitation?
Heavy precipitation and floods: There is low confidence in the emergence of heavy precipitation and pluvial and fluvial flood frequency in observations, despite trends that have been found in a few regions (Chapter 8, Chapter 11, and across Section 12.4).
In climate projections, the emergence of an increase in heavy precipitation strongly depends on the scale of aggregation (Kirchmeier-Young et al., 2019), with, in general, no emergence before a 1.5°C or 2°C warming level…
Rainfall in NYC
New York City, given its location and dense urban environment, has experienced a variety of extreme precipitation events throughout its history.
These events have varied in cause and impact, but a few stand out due to their severity and the challenges they pose to the city’s infrastructure and residents.
The Great Storm of 1882: On August 19-20, 1882, New York City was hit by a devastating storm that resulted in substantial rainfall in a short period, leading to significant flooding. Contemporary reports described it as one of the most severe storms to strike the city in many years.
The storm dropped copious amounts of rain on the city. Estimates suggest that over eight inches of rain fell in Central Park over 24 hours, a tremendous amount by any standard.
Due to the heavy rainfall, streets were turned into rivers, basements were flooded, and infrastructure was damaged.
The rapid rainfall exceeded the drainage capacity of the city, illustrating the challenges of dealing with extreme weather in an urban environment, even in the late 19th century.
The 1882 storm serves as a historical reminder of the challenges that extreme precipitation events have posed to New York City throughout its history, and how such events have influenced urban planning and infrastructure development decisions.
Hurricane Donna (1960): In September 1960, Hurricane Donna struck the East Coast of the U.S., leaving a trail of devastation from Florida to New England. While the hurricane itself skirted New York City, its impacts were heavily felt in the area.
Central Park recorded nearly three inches of rainfall on September 12, a substantial amount in a single day. The combination of storm surge and rainfall led to localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas of the city.
The Nor’easter of 1992: While not a tropical system, the December 1992 Nor’easter was an extreme precipitation event of significant note. Persistent heavy rain combined with high tides caused widespread flooding throughout New York City.
Coastal areas, particularly those in Staten Island and Brooklyn, bore the brunt of the storm with many homes and roads inundated. Central Park documented more than two inches of rain during this event, and many areas in the metropolitan region reported much higher totals.
Hurricane Irene (2011): Although Hurricane Irene weakened to a tropical storm by the time it reached New York City in late August 2011, it still brought significant rainfall to the region.
For two days, Central Park recorded more than six inches of rain. Many parts of the city faced flooding, and there were widespread power outages. The city’s subway system, a lifeline for millions, was shut down in anticipation of the storm.
While the storm surge wasn’t as extreme as initially feared, the heavy rainfall resulted in substantial flooding in areas with poor drainage.
Tropical Storm Elsa (2021): In July 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa affected the East Coast, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to New York City. Central Park reported more than 1.5 inches of rainfall in less than 24 hours.
While the city’s infrastructure held up reasonably well, the event was another reminder of the challenges posed by extreme precipitation in a densely populated urban environment.
September 2023 Rain Event: New York City, Long Island, and Hudson Valley had widespread rainfall between four and six inches, with some areas experiencing well over seven inches of rain.
These events underline the vulnerability of New York City to extreme precipitation events, whether they come from tropical systems, Nor’easters, or other meteorological phenomena.
The city’s efforts to bolster its resilience to such events remain an ongoing challenge and priority.
Although the recent rain event may have broken some one-hour precipitation records, the total 24-hour precipitation of 4-7 inches would not break the top four (see graphic below), of which only one was in the 2000s.
When looking at 24-hour precipitation records for Central Park, it is clear that there appears to be no significant trend in heavy precipitation.
However, there does appear to be a slight increase in overall precipitation (see graphic below) with an increase of about 10 percent or four inches since 1900.
This has been a net benefit as the population of New York has grown from 3.5M in 1900 to 20M today.
There has also been a slight increase in the ‘Observed number of two-inch extreme precipitation events’, however, the numbers recorded over the last few decades are on par with those observed in 1900 when atmospheric CO2 concentration was ~296ppm.
In summary, the constant catastrophizing of completely natural weather events is a tool used by climate alarmists to instill irrational fear in the public.
The fact is that the seven inches of rain that fell in NYC in September of 2023 is NOT evidence of ‘climate change’… nor was the eight inches that fell in 1882.
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Header image: The Conversation
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