polar bears are abundant & thriving despite sea ice loss
Experts who used the American Endangered Species Act (ESA) to list polar bears as ‘threatened’ in May 2008 were mistaken: sea ice authorities got their predictions wrong about future ice extent and polar bear specialists erroneously declared that two-thirds of polar bears would disappear if summer sea ice declines continued unabated
By 2007, there was even less summer sea ice than computer models of the day had predicted (Stroeve et al. 2007, see red line on graph below) and in 2012, it dropped to just above 3 mkm2.
Simplified Arctic sea ice predictions vs. observations up to 2007 by Stroeve et al. 2007 (courtesy Wikimedia). Sea ice hit an even lower extent in 2012 and all years since then have been below these predicted levels.
Updated sea ice predictions published in 2014 by the Stroeve team (see below) went to the other extreme, using totally implausible RCP 8.5 scenarios to predict a virtually ice-free Arctic (< 1 mkm2 ice extent) before 2040, which seem just as likely to be just as wrong as their 2007 attempt (Hausfather and Peters 2020; Pielke and Ritchie 2021; Stroeve et al. 2007, 2014; Swart et al. 2015).
In fact, for 12 years out of the last 15, summer ice extent has been below 5.0 mkm2 (often well below), which polar bear experts had not anticipated would happen until at least 2050 (Amstrup et al. 2006).
In 2012, NOAA sea ice experts summarized this sea ice loss as “reduced by nearly 50%” since 1979:
Despite this dramatic decline in sea ice, polar bears are still abundant and thriving because polar bear specialists got it wrong about the bears’ need for this habitat in summer (Crockford 2017, 2019; Crockford and Geist 2018).
Polar bear turned out to be more flexible and resilient than predicted and many subpopulations are better off than before. Davis Strait and Chukchi Sea bears are doing very well: Barents Sea bears in particular are thriving despite by far the most sea ice loss of any Arctic region (e.g. Conn et al. 2021; Frey et al. 2022; Haavik 2022; Lippold et al. 2019; Peacock et al. 2013; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode et al. 2014, 2018, 2021, 2022).
This was not what had been predicted when the bears were listed as ‘threatened’ in 2008.
Conclusion: Despite the Arctic warming four times as fast as the rest of the world with rising CO2 levels and almost 50 percent less summer ice than there was in 1979, polar bears are no closer to extinction than they were 15 years ago, according to the results of field studies.
There is no existential emergency for polar bears or any other Arctic sea mammals due to declining summer sea ice, despite continued messages of doom from remorseless experts.
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VOWG
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Computer models are screwing up everything.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi VOWG and PSI Readers.
“Continents in Collision (Planet Earth) Library Binding – January 1, 1983
by Russell Miller (Author), The Editors of Time-Life Books (Editor) Library Binding
$7.80 36 Used from $2.00 4 New from $5.47 2 Collectible from $7.99 Paperback
$18.58 A Time-Life Planet Earth book.;”
I have no memory when I acquired this book; however, it must have been some time before I had learn to SEE. For it is a HISTORY which every PSE author and commentator needs to read, myself included, before writing another word here at PSI. For its present cost (Used from $2.00 4 New from $5.47) is evidence how unimportant HISTORICAL SCIENTIFIC HISTORY seems to be to people who claim to be SCIENTISTS or to have an interest of SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE.
Miller began: “For scholars of the 17th Century enjoyed or deserved the international respect accorded James Ussher … . Ussher constructed a chronology for this history, using as a source the HOLY BIBLE, … .” For while I had no knowledge of Ussher, I did consider this needed to be done. But then Miller immediately began to review what Ussher had done WRONG; as seems a common activity here at PSI.
So I join Ussher and Miller by quoting the first 3 verses of Genesis: “In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth. Now the earth was formless and empty, darkness was over the surface of the deep, and the Spirit of God was hovering over the waters. And God said, “Let there be light,” and there was light.” (New International. Version, NIV). By commenting, that in the first
59 pages, which I have quickly scanned, I find no reference to this LIGHT or to what its SOURSE might be.
So I ask: What is the source (CAUSE) of LIGHT (radiation)?
Have a good day
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers,
As I continued to read beyond page 59 my pondering about what I was reading began to oscillate between if my recommendation that you all read this book was valid or not va as I read past page 100. For I could see that with my experience it was often difficult to follow what Miller had written, or why..
Miller and the editors (publisher) of this book never included a PREFACE or ABSTRACT of what this book was about.
First, it is a story book with many photos and artistic illustrations of what is being described with words. The first 59 pages are a story of the career of Alfred Wegener. Who near the beginning of the 20th Century proposed, on the basis of early maps of the earth, that continents had drifted apart because the west coast of Africa fit the east coast of South America like two jigsaw pieces. And the story describes how he observed and reported other unquestionable evidences to support his conclusion that these two continents had drifted apart.
Until after 1930 the geological community had so made mockery of his efforts that he gave up trying to inform them and went back to studies of his science—meteorology. And his story ends with his death on the high plateau of Greenland.
The remainder of the book is about a few individual scientists (geologists), with generally unknown names, continued to make amazing observations with new instruments, which they invented, while denying that that continents had drifted. And the story ends that after another 3 decades, or so, everything that they had great trouble explaining for most of these 3 decades, fit together like pieces of a jig saw puzzle, once it was accepted that Wegener was correct that continents had drifted and were still drifting.
However, the story need not end here. For I plan to write more short comments to point toward what still seems not to have been consciously observed..
Have a good day
Reply
Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers,
As I continued to read beyond page 59 little beyond page 100, I began to question if my recommendation that you all read this book was good or not. For I could see that even with my experience that it was often difficult to follow what Miller had written. Finally I saw the problem was that Miller and the book’s editors had not included a PREFACE OR ABSTRACT to tell a potential reader what this book was about. And neither had I.
First, it is a story book with many photos and artistic illustrations of what is being described with words. The first 59 pages are a story of the career of Alfred Wegener, the meteorologist.. Who, near the beginning of the 20th Century, had seen, on the basis of early maps of the earth, that the west coast of Africa fit the east coast of South America like two jigsaw pieces. So he proposed that these two continents had drifted apart. The for next 30 years he and maneless others had discovered other unquestionable evidences which strongly supported his proposal. But finally shortly after 1930, the story continued that the geological community had made such a mockery of his efforts that he gave up and went back to studies of his science—meteorology. And his story ends with his death on the high plateau of Greenland.
The remainder of this book is stories about a few true geologists, with generally unknown names, who continued to make new observations with new instruments, which they invented, which they could not explain.. The story finally ends after another 3 decades after Wegener had given up, that the geological community finally saw that most everything, they could not explain , fit together like the pieces of a big jigsaw puzzle , once it was accepted that continents could and were drifting. after they had great trouble explaining most of their 3 decades of unexplainable experimental results, that everything fit together like the pieces of a big jig saw puzzle, once it was accepted that continents could drift and still were drifting.
Have a good day
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