Lockdowns Turned an Average Flu into a Public Health Catastrophe
Every year in England, people die more in the winter than the rest of the year. Every year, we name the u flu.
Most years, it’s A(H3N2) that does the most damage.
In winter 2017, what looks to me like your average year for winter deaths, influenza A(H3N2) was responsible for almost sixty thousand excess winter deaths all by itself.
Well, OK, people (mainly very old ones) died of lots of other things but because they died in the winter when there’s flu about and most people are infected (some without even knowing it), let’s call it an A(H3N2) death. Catchy, eh? Excuse the pun!
Most people recall winter 2018 was a pretty severe one in England for flu deaths? Newspapers were plastered with headlines like the NHS is overwhelmed. Yada yada.
After an unusually strong performance from influenza B accounting for fifty five thousand winter deaths, A(H3N2) steamed in late season (closer to spring in fact) and added another eleven thousand to the season total.
Winter 2020 was really, really soft by usual standards, after a relatively poor show from influenza B of only twenty eight thousand, followed by a paltry seventeen thousand that wasn’t even worthy of trying to identify. So, you might say there was a fair amount of what some people call “dry tinder”.
So, SARS-CoV-2’s timing couldn’t have been better, coming late season after such a poor performance from the regular influenzas.
Looking at the excess deaths, you’d be forgiven for thinking that it accounted for fifty five thousand winter (or rather spring) deaths which would still make it a very severe late season pathogen, even in spite of the amount of dry tinder. That’s in line with B of winter 2018 but less than A(H3N2) of winter 2017.
But here’s the thing…
According to the official death tally, there were only forty eight thousand COVID deaths in spring 2020 in England1, making it (Piers Morgan cover your eyes now) a rather ordinary “flu” by recent standards.
Maybe it actually was exactly that?
But what is rather unfortunate is the fact that the first two weeks of COVID mortality almost fit the Gompertz distribution modelled on the all-cause excess mortality. In other words, a novel (as in a new, or simply “another”) pathogen did genuinely emerge in spring 2020 and was always on course to account for thirty six thousand deaths. Nothing we did as a society changed that.
But then, at the moment that the government charges in to save the day, on 23rd March 2020 to be exact – by putting all the healthy citizens under house arrest, chucking sick, infected old people out of hospitals and into care homes, denying people emergency and elective healthcare, and putting enormous stress on the population by shutting schools and businesses and stopping people from enjoying any of life’s pleasures, adversely affecting the old and frail disproportionately – excess deaths deviate upwards from those caused by the virus, adding another SIXTEEN THOUSAND additional, unnecessary, avoidable deaths to the season total2.
That’s a 33 percent increase3 on what would have occurred if the government had simply stayed out of the affairs of ordinary people and continued to provide the public services they were elected to do.
In other words, UK Government emergency powers killed 16,000 innocent citizens in spring 2020 alone.
Who knew?! Oh well, at least we’ll know better next time, won’t we?
1 N.B. I have increased this number from thirty-six thousand in the original post by using the full count of deaths with COVID mentioned on the death certificate as opposed to being within 28 days of a positive test. This produces, therefore, the most conservative estimate of policy deaths.
2 This number is ten thousand deaths lower than the original post due to the change made in footnote 1.
3 This number is changed from 75 percent in the original post due to the change made in footnote 1.
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