British Hydrological Society Publishes Then Deletes Climate Paper
We’re publishing today an article by James Dent, a retired hydrologist and meteorologist. In a long career, Mr. Dent worked in many parts of the world, specialising in floods and droughts.
For a time, he was the World Meteorology Organisation Chief Technical Advisor to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre in Bangladesh.
The article was initially published in the British Hydrological Society journal Circulation, but was quickly withdrawn.
Here’s an excerpt:
Like the predictions of the progress of Covid, we need to ask what the limitations are to modelling. Too easily the model output is given the status of truth, and quickly becomes unchallengeable. Climate change predictions have been commonplace for at least 25 years, but I recently read an agricultural journalist state that in the future, farmers will have to cope with hotter, drier summers, and warmer, wetter winters, and there will be more extreme events.
The message has remained the same, so have we not yet reached the predicted future? It becomes easy to summarise complicated ideas into sound bites.
Over the last 15 years, I have resigned from two national institutions which have incorporated climate change hypotheses into rigid policy statements. This situation could so easily escalate to the dystopian future depicted in the recently published novel The Denial by Ross Clark.
Like all the ramifications and issues relating to Covid, the danger comes when theoretical projections provide the basis of legislation, or define the stance of particular organisations, while the media presentations rely on throw-away lines and virtue-signalling in reporting.
I can see similar dangers arising from so-called ‘environmental’ policies, such as ceasing river dredging and weed clearance, ‘rewilding’ and abandoning land and road drainage maintenance. Ultimately we could find ourselves regressing to medieval conditions, where roads and marshy areas become impassable in the winter months.
British Hydrological Society (BHS) President Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University, subsequently explained that the paper was “a personal view from one of our membership that climate change was not a real phenomenon”.
She went on to say: “We do not think it is appropriate to provide them with a forum under the BHS logo.” She further noted that the “climate sceptic” viewpoint did not represent good scholarship in science and we “will be reviewing our governance procedures to make sure that members voices can still be heard, but through the lens of good science”.
James Dent’s essay would have passed without comment 20 years ago.
It is statement that climate has always changed, sometimes within short intervals, and climate models produce forecasts, not unchallengeable truth. As I noted in a recent article, the broadcaster and current UCL Professor of Earth Systems Science Mark Maslin said in 1999 that “some, and possibly most, large climate changes involving movements of several degrees centigrade occurred at most on a timescale of a few centuries, sometimes decades, and perhaps even a few years”.
By 2014, Maslin was writing articles titled “Why I’ll talk politics with climate change deniers – but not science”, while in 2020 he suggested the origins of racism and climate emergency “share common causes”.
Justifying her Dent banning order, Professor Fowler claimed that anthropogenic activities had unequivocally modified Earth’s climate, causing increasingly disruptive socio-economic and ecological impacts. She suggested that changes to large-scale climate patterns had resulted in increasingly frequent and intense examples of extreme weather events, and global temperatures will continue to increase until at least the mid-century and would rise by 1.5°C and 2°C during the next century, unless there were deep reductions in human-produced carbon dioxide.
None of this is based on proven scientific fact.
Humans are part of nature and have probably had some effect, likely very small, on the atmosphere. Burning fossil fuel, for instance, adds just four percent extra CO2 to an atmosphere that some scientists suggest needs more of this highly beneficial plant food.
Ascribing individual weather events to long-term changes in the climate is not science – no credible data that could be falsified is available – it is just someone’s opinion. Prof. Fowler puts great store by the “strength of scientific evidence” presented by the IPCC.
As we have seen, recent IPCC reports are often produced by writers such as herself, with similar academic interests and defined outlooks.
Forecasts of future warming come from unreliable computer models. Highly inaccurate guesses are produced because scientists cannot agree on the crucial issue of the amount of warming caused by a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Estimates range between 0.5°C to 6°C. Many scientists now suggest lower estimates are more realistic, and these fall within margin of error territory.
In this territory, it will be impossible to tell whether minor changes in temperature are caused by relatively small amounts of human-caused CO2, or countless other natural causes. Driven by a green climate agenda, the IPCC authorities still favour the higher estimates.
Global warming started to run out of steam nearly 20 years ago and temperatures have been at a standstill for over eight years, according to accurate satellite data.
The graphic above shows clearly the divergence of climate model forecasts from the actual temperature recorded in the thicker green line. Increasingly inaccurate forecasts are seen from the late 1990s.
Note the standstill from around 2014 and the slowdown of warming since the mid 1990s peak.
According to Prof. Fowler, large scale climate patterns have resulted in increasingly frequent and intense examples of extreme weather events. What is the definition of ‘extreme weather’, it might be asked – according to the graphic below, it does not seem to be based on human lives lost.
According to Prof. Fowler, many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to increasing global warming, and this includes increases in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones.
If there are going to be any increases, they haven’t shown up in the above record yet. Both hurricane and cyclone activity show similar trends going back over 40 years.
Prof. Fowler concludes with some thoughts on the hydrosphere “where the most profound impacts of climate change will pose the greatest risk to Earth’s biomes”. Continued global warming is projected to intensify further the global water cycle, including variability, global monsoon precipitation and the severity of wet and dry events.
Such events might be expected to affect large land masses like the United States. Detailed historical records are available across this territory going back to 1895. Like the storms, the above chart shows there is no great change discernible yet.
The Daily Sceptic asked Professor Fowler to comment further on the Dent cancellation. She was asked to explain what she meant when she said members’ future voices will be heard through the “lens of good science”. At time of going to press, there had not been a reply.
Read James Dent’s banned article here.
See more here: dailysceptic.org
Bold emphasis added
Header image: British Hydrological Society
Editor’s note: When Professor Fowler says ‘good science’, what she means is alarmist propaganda.
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Geraint Hughes
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RGHE is a lie anyone who says CO2 induces warming is a fool or a liar, choice is theirs. This includes the BHS and all of its Carbon Claptrap high tax anti-human anti-development espousing mouthpieces.
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Alan
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Prof Fowler needs to go to Specsavers for a new lens.
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D. Boss
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An unfortunate name. Is it any relation to Arthur Dent?
Do we need a towel? Don’t panic! Babel fish anyone? Infinite Improbability Drive can fix global warming!
Perhaps Fowler is really a Vogon!
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Andy
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I did think about Arthur Dent as I was copying the text 🙂 And Ford Prefect, Zaphod Beeblebrox, Trillian, Slartibartfast, and not forgetting Hotblack Desiatu and Marvin the Paranoid Android 🙂
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Allan Shelton
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The AGW Alarmists will never be convinced with logic or proof of their claims.
The only way to stop their false claims is to vote the left wing governments out of office and drain the swamps.
AND… really drain them of all the radicals and false conservatives. IMO.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers,
I urge you to read Jame Dent’s actual article. All you have to do is click on the link. His article is shorter than this one. I want you to read Dent’s article so you can see how different it is from this article written by The Daily Skeptic.
And I ask anyone who actually reads Dent’s article to comment about any possible differences that they see, if any. I will wait a day before I comment further because I do not want to influence, with my comments, what a reader sees.
Have a good day, Jerry
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Mark Tapley
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When we look at the transparently ridiculous control schemes such as the fake virus and phony climate change, it is obvious that most of the “experts” in key positions regarding these scams can be bought out just like all of the top puppet actor politicians. The founders were well aware of this problem and so attempted to limit the power of the government. Organized crime is never a serious problem for society until it has infiltrated and then wields the power of governments.
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Artelia
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When we stopped polluting the skies with coal in the UK, replacing coal heating with gas and replacing coal fired power stations with gas, the climate should have grown marginally warmer BECAUSE there was not the pollution from coal blocking out the sun. Cloud cover at night prevents hard frosts in the winter and spring and in the summer, it prevents hard dew. Even on winter days, the sun would make it feel warm on a sunny afternoon. Today we have solar radiation management and aircraft sprays and climate engineering. With the levels of climate engineering we are subjected to, unless this STOPS, we cannot say what our climate is actually like. I consider that it would be warmer in the day, colder at night, less extreme and less choppy. The skies would be clearer, there would be less drizzle, the rain would be more defined and CLEAR up. We would not be having as many gales but would have more strong winds and fresh breezes. The dry spells in the UK would not last for more than two weeks.
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Artelia
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If everyone stopped using condenser tumble driers and heat pump condenser driers, we may have marginally more rain. This is because vented driers and drying washing outdoors and indoors will create more water vapour, which will enter the atmosphere. If everyone had a garden which required watering, the same thing.
IF gas boilers, used to heat homes really did create a problem with CO2, it would be as simple as pie to turn the exhausts into carbonates and water and carbonated water instead of H2O and CO2.
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Howdy
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“The dry spells in the UK would not last for more than two weeks.”
We are currently at the mercy of a deranged jet-stream as far as I know, and It hardly ever stops raining where I am. Certainly seems like It.
“If everyone stopped using condenser tumble driers and heat pump condenser driers, we may have marginally more rain.”
What’s the difference between a drier, and the sun doing the same job, only slower?
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Howdy
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Disregard the second paragraph.
“This is because vented driers and drying washing outdoors and indoors will create more water vapour, which will enter the atmosphere. If everyone had a garden which required watering, the same thing.”
So suggest an alternative, other than not washing, watering, and burning clothes that are too dirty to use?
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Mark Tapley
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Hello Howdy:
Do you really think you little activities are a factor as far as affecting the climate. I wouldn’t be too concerned about running your washer and dryer when the elite billionaire jet are constantly running their kerosene guzzling, CO2 generating jumbo jets all over the planet. Thats of course when they are not cruising in their mega yachts or entertaining in their luxury mansions. Don’t worry, once Boris and friends get the Anglo cattle corralled along with all those imported Somali livestock in Agenda 21, you won’t have a washer or dryer. They use way to much energy for your allotted carbon credits:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/4M6xQpxZs7if/
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Howdy
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Hi Mark,
“Do you really think you little activities are a factor as far as affecting the climate.”
No i don’t. I simply asked a question. As far as carbon credits, oh ye of little faith.
Mark Tapley
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Hello Artelia:
Modern coal powered plants produce practically no pollution. You could live right next to one, as lots of people do and if you couldn’t see it, you wouldn’t know it was there. England is not exactly a Mediterranean climate. It is only made reasonably habitable (rather than being another Iceland) because of the Gulf Stream carrying warm water up there. The climate you have now is about as good an its going to get.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Mark, Howdy, and Artelia,
On April 4 I wrote: “I urge you to read Jame Dent’s actual article. All you have to do is click on the link. His article is shorter than this one. I want you to read Dent’s article so you can see how different it is from this article written by The Daily Skeptic.”
To date there is no evidence you have done either!!! Instead you have written about what you think about this or that. As if that is more important than what James Dent actually wrote; which was the focus of the article.
Yes, you can ignore what I write because I make so many mistakes. But try to write about that which has actually been observed or written by others whose names we sometimes recognize because of their life achievements. I never knew of James Dent nor what he wrote. And that is why I read PSI articles and comments because I learn about “things” which I never knew.
Please read what Dent wrote and share with us what you think about the possible difference which I claim to have seen. Of course, what I claim is only my opinion and not a FACT.
Have a good day, Jerry
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Mark Tapley
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Hello Jerry:
Dent has not jumped on the “climate change” wagon as most of the other climatologists have done. We see the same situation in the medical field as there are only a few intransigents that fail to toe the fake virus line. Roman writers during the time of Christ noted how the climate had only recently warmed so the Nile no longer froze and they could now grow grapes in regions where before it was impossible. We also know that the medieval warming increased crop yields and made transportation and life in general easier for the mass of Europeans. Once the Little ice age settled in, the Vikings had to abandon their two settlements in Greenland and the Thames froze over in London 23 times between 1408 and 1814. Just an few years ago New England recorded the Lowest temperatures in a hundred years and it also sm=nowed in Cairo for the first time in 112 years.
Indications are we are heading into another moderate cooling phase as is normal. None of this climate alarmism would have ever entered into the public conscious exempt for the global elite’s Club of Rome (formerly global warming) propaganda. First pedaled by Rockefeller front man Maurice Strong and then taken up by Occidental Petroleum’s CEO Zionist Armand Hammer’s shill Al Gore. In a frenetic effort to scam the industrialized nations with carbon taxes (for the insiders) Gore repeated the “we are in the final decade before catastrophe” mantra. They finally even resorted to sending in the retarded looking teenager Greta to ring the environmental alarm bells.
All of these global scams from the contrived wars, eminent climate catastrophes, and viral pandemics are all manufactured by the Zionist elite and their operatives in key positions. If the herd could finally figure this out and get them out of all positions of authority, the whole world would experience a renaissance of peace and prosperity.
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