The Sorcerer’s Apprentices: a Global Warming Fiasco
Major changes in world climate politics are afoot as policymakers realize climate models are incapable of computing outcomes from global warming mitigation strategies. 
Respected scientist, Dr Klaus L E Kaiser writes:
The famous poem “Der Zauberlehrling” or The Sorcerer’s Apprentice by Germany’s most acclaimed poet, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832), is coming into focus again. And the ones affected, today’s apprentices of the climate doom “religion” are screaming hell and murder.
Guess what happened:
Dr. L. Marshall, the director of Australia’s foremost climate science research establishment, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation or CSIRO for short, ordered a change of their research emphasis, away from measuring and modelling and more work towards mitigation and adaption.
You’d think that would be great news, actually trying to cope with nature’s 4,500 million years of changing climate on earth. Oh no, CSIRO’S past “apprentices of climate doom and gloom modelling” are all upset.
Actually, they now appear to call their leader a “climate denier.” To wit, Dr. Marshall’s response to this accusation:
“I’ve been told by some extreme elements that they’ve put me at the top of the climate deniers list and what perplexes me is how saying that we’re going to shift more resources to mitigation – i.e. doing something to address climate change versus just measuring and modelling it – I don’t see how that makes me a climate denier.”
Indeed, why not look for better ways to cope with it? Isn’t it a good thing to try to improve the efficiency of car engines, to develop better heating and cooling systems, to study ways that may lead to improved aerodynamics of planes, or to more accurate predictions of earthquakes and tsunamis, and to faster and safer travel, and so forth? Isn’t that what elevated mankind from the Stone Age subsistence to modern life amenities, and lengthened the average life span from a couple of decades to 80 years or so? And, after all, didn’t the climate modellers tell us for many years already that “the science was settled?”
The “Science is Settled”
The “Science is Settled” was the modellers’ battle cry, and “now action must follow!” Well, the world leaders and some 40,000 others met in Paris not long ago at the Conference of the Parties, aka COP-21. They listened and signed an international agreement to follow their recommendation.
So, why should the world continue to expend our resources to model climate projections for 1,000 or even 100,000 years from now when we need to take care of today’s problems?
Well, “who would have thunk that?” The same modellers now are changing their tune. All of a sudden, their previous projections no longer have the aura of certainty of their past claims and innuendos. In short and quite unexpectedly, they now claim that the science is no longer settled.
Therefore, please, let me continue with my super-computer modelling work, perhaps we can stretch the predictions or projections out to one million years from now. After all, you and I are unlikely to be around then and hold me to account for those projections. All we (the sorcerer’s apprentices) want is to be able to continue plying our old trade of pretending that we understand and know how to control the earth’s climate.
The Earth’s Climate
The globe’s climate is exceedingly complex and difficult to model.
The many climate models developed by CSIRO and other research institutes like the PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate [Impact] Research) in Germany have not been validated and more likely than not, they never will. The most important parameter, namely the varying energy flux from the sun is inadequately considered. It affects the gargantuan energy transfer between the three physical states of water on the earth’s surface, namely its solid, liquid and vapor states.
To melt a certain amount of ice one needs one unit of energy. To then heat that water from 0 C to boiling, approximately another unit of energy is required. But to then vaporize that same amount of (boiling) water about six units of energy are needed. With an estimated 100,000 cubic kilometers (~ 20,000 cubic miles) of water evaporated each year from the earth’s surface and re-condensed and precipitated, it will be obvious that the energy flux of these processes is of vital consequence to the climate.
Therefore, you might be forgiven for thinking that that energy flux is part of the climate modellers’ computations. But no, it’s not. Why worry about that when you can blame all of nature’s climate capers on the trace gas carbon dioxide (CO2) that makes up a grand total of 0.04{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} of the (in dry state) atmosphere? They haven’t even been able to explain the last 20 years of climate, much less the last 400 years. Obviously, these models are as useless as the ….. [just think of an old farmers’ expression].
The Apprentices’ “Infallible” Models
In my mind, what is happening to the “climate apprentices” right now is a giant meltdown of their (claimed) infallibility. Despite their over 100 super-computer driven climate models, their lacking ability to even explain the recent past does not give any credence to their projections for the future. That’s why some politicians are waking up and are asking if it makes sense to spend more resources on the modelling rather than on mitigating and adapting to nature’s changes — and rightly so.
What happened now at CSIRO is just the beginning of a major shift in world climate politics. No doubt, Australia’s lead will have major repercussions on the climate research industry.
Apprentices take heed!
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