Like all viruses, Covid is here to stay

Written by Andy Rowlands on June 19, 2021. Posted in Current News

A few days ago, the Daily Mail reported government advisors had said the UK will have to learn to live with the virus and accept a certain number of deaths. Really? You don’t say. And there was me thinking the wonderful vaccines will totally eradicate it from our shores.

I reproduce selected parts of the Daily Mail article in italics, interspersed with my own comments.

The article begins:

Boris Johnson and England’s chief expert advisers Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance have all repeated the line that we will ‘have to learn to live with Covid’ in the past 24 hours, in what seems to be a concerted effort to take emphasis away from the daily death numbers. 

Take emphasis away from very low numbers of deaths? Why? To focus on cases of course as if that is the only important factor.

Daily death numbers are very low, and have been since the beginning of May, as this illustration from the BBC virus webpage shows:

There has been fierce debate about what level of Covid deaths would be ‘tolerable’ when Britain emerges from the shutdown — but one of the Government’s top scientists, Professor Graham Medley, said it was ‘quite possible’ there could be hundreds each day post lockdown.

If the government continues to treat any death within 28 days of a positive test result, from any cause, as a death caused by the virus, then yes, that may well happen.

As it stands at the moment, if I tested positive today, and 27 days later got run over by a bus, drowned, got electrocuted, was eaten by a crocodile or hit by a meteorite, my death would be listed as having been caused by the virus.

Also, the BBC virus webpage states that deaths are also counted as being caused by the virus if the words Covid-19 or Coronavirus are written on death certificates, even if the deceased had not been tested, but was suspected as having been positive.

Professor Karol Sikora, an expert in medicine at the University of Buckingham, told MailOnline: ‘All deaths are very emotional and upsetting… but it’s important we embrace Covid like we have other viruses because it will become a normal feature in society.

‘We should consider it a success if we bring it [Covid deaths] down to levels comparable with flu deaths every year. We will never achieve zero Covid.’ 

Cambridge University epidemiologist Dr Raghib Ali told MailOnline that once July 19 comes and most of the adult population have been given a vaccine: ‘It’s my view that we will be in as strong a position as we ever will be. Prolonging restrictions beyond that point doesn’t achieve much.’

Asked what an acceptable number of Covid deaths would be, he added: ‘If you look at deaths and excess deaths from influenza, the Government tolerates numbers up to about 50,000 [per year].’

Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, told Times Radio: ‘We have to accept that this virus will circulate, and it will be the case, unfortunately, that in winters to come we will find that people contract it or subsequent variants and they will fall ill.

‘Unfortunately there are respiratory diseases, including flu itself, which do every year result in an upsurge of people being taken into hospital, and in some cases suffering tragic consequences.’ In a separate interview with BBC Radio 4, he said ‘we’re going to have to learn to live with Covid’.

The graphic below shows the four most common forms of annual deaths in the UK:

Data: Public Health England. Graphic: Daily Mail

If the British government can accept 17,000 deaths from seasonal flu every year, and they can accept a few hundred ‘Covid’ deaths. They seem quite happy to accept hundreds of deaths caused by the largesly untested Covid vaccines.

The other important thing here is to note that flu cases in most countries miraculously vanished during 2020. The last figure I saw quoted for the UK was 457, down from 17,000. Governments say that is because of lockdowns and anti-social distancing, but to cause a 95 percent reduction? Methinks governments are being, to quote Michael Heseltine during the Scott Enquiry; ‘economical with the actualitae’.

Flu symptoms and Covid symptoms are remarkably similar. No government would re-classify flu as Covid to deceive the public would they…

It is not clear what levels of Covid deaths the country can expect when lockdown is ended next month, and this has been made less clear due to the outbreak of the highly transmissible Indian variant.

That strain has proven to be at least 60 per cent more infectious than the Kent version and twice as likely to put unvaccinated people in hospital. 

Each new ‘variant’ has been initially touted as being far more transmissable, and each one has turned out not to be.

But two doses of the jabs are extremely effective against the mutant virus, reducing hospitalisations by up to 96 per cent. 

The Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned there could have been 250 to more than 500 deaths per day in the third wave this summer if Step 4 of the roadmap out of lockdown went ahead as planned on June 21.

There ‘could’ have been. This is pure speculation.

The group did not provide clear projections for what effect delaying the unlocking until July 19 will have on deaths, but its estimates around hospitalisations show the four-week gap could shrink admissions by more than half.

Prominent SAGE member Professor Graham Medley warned that, even with the extra breathing room the delay gives, Britain could still suffer hundreds of Covid deaths every day later in the year. 

Another ‘could’. More highly unlikely speculation and fearmongering.

Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist at Reading University, said this was possible because there will still be millions of people who are vulnerable to the disease even when the entire country is vaccinated.

A small percentage of people who get the jab will still catch and die from Covid, usually because they are frail and have compromised immune systems.  

Dr Clarke told MailOnline: ‘Even if you’ve got a vaccine that cuts deaths by more than 90 per cent, that still leaves almost 7million people not protected.

The inference here is Covid is so deadly that most of the seven million ‘unprotected’ will die.

But he said emphasis should be taken away from the Covid death figures and focused on NHS capacity, which he said was now the most important metric.

The NHS was not overwhelmed at any point during the pandemic, so with vast numbers vaccinated, why would that happen now?

Keith Neil, an emeritus professor in infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, said that once the adult population had been vaccinated with at least once dose against Covid it was no longer the Government’s responsibility to try to save every life.

‘We can’t stay in lockdowns forever, people need to make their own risk assessments. If people are worried about Covid or think they might be vulnerable, then they might decide not to meet up with others or socially distance.’

People may decide to not meet others or stay anti-socially distanced. Like for the rest of their lives. Yeah right.

Backbench Tory MPs, including former prime minister Theresa May and Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group (CRG), criticised the Government for delaying the June 21 unlocking by a month, saying it was moving away from its goal of protecting the NHS. They said Britons had to learn to live with the virus.

Learn to live with the virus, Shirley not. Like we do with all the other viruses then.

However, other experts have said it is the Government’s duty to do prevent all ‘avoidable’ deaths and warned ministers against becoming cocky about the virus. 

Professor Gabriel Scally, a public health expert at the University of Bristol, told MailOnline: ‘What’s an acceptable level of road traffic accidents? We don’t accept those deaths we have inquests to find out what went wrong and how can we put it right.

‘Like any infectious disease it’s our duty to do whatever we can to protect people from it. If we don’t take sensible action and people get ill then we’re being careless with people’s lives.’

Sensible action would have been to isolate the vulnerable, NOT put the entire population under what amounted to house-arrest, doing monumental damage to the economy and people’s lives in the process.

The Government today doubled down on its new Freedom Day pledge, with Mr Gove saying he was ‘as confident as confident can be about that date’, despite fears from backbench Tory MPs the goalposts will be moved once again.

You think??

Asked about whether the PM could put Tory fears to bed this afternoon, Mr Johnson’s official spokesman claimed ‘there is not a significant benefit from a further delay beyond the four weeks because of the success of the vaccination programme.’ 

Until they decide to move the goalposts again and tell us we need another few weeks to ‘flatten the curve’.

In other developments, Jacob Rees-Mogg today gave the first sign of Cabinet dissent over Mr Johnson’s decision to delay the final stage of the lockdown exit roadmap, despite cases and hospitalisations continuing to rise.

The Commons Leader said ‘you can’t run society purely to stop the hospitals being full’, insisting the Government ‘doesn’t have the right to take charge of people’s lives, purely to prevent them seeing the doctor’. 

Indeed.

Despite the uptick in admissions, deaths remain flat. Ten more victims were added to the official death toll today, compared to 13 last week. Separate figures today revealed that England and Wales saw fewer Covid deaths in the first week of June than at any time since March 2020.

During mid-May, overall UK deaths went as low as 19 percent below the five-year average, as seen in this illustration I saved from the BBC virus webpage:

This case-demic, sorry pandemic, has gone on far too long, unless of course the ‘conspiracy theories’ about it being part of a plan to make restrictions permanent are true after all. I wouldn’t like to be in the government’s shoes if they delay the 19th July reopening….

See more here: dailymail.co.uk

Header image: GDELT Project

To report adverse effects from Covid vaccines in the UK, click here: coronavirus-yellowcard

For the USA, click here: vaers.hhs.gov

About the author: Andy Rowlands is a university graduate in space science and British Principia Scientific International researcher, writer and editor who co-edited the new climate science book, ‘The Sky Dragon Slayers: Victory Lap‘

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