PCR test paradox – the drastic decline in positive tests
Again and again we have criticised the lockdown measures and the senseless tests of people without symptoms: the PCR test produces an enormous number of false-positive results when the prevalence, i.e. the proportion of infected people, is low.
(this article is translated from German, original version here) For almost a year this has always been the case. However, this has been denied time and again by the media, politics and virological “experts”.
In doing so, it is relatively simple mathematics also known as Bayes’ theorem. The first practical proof of the fact that all PCR tests and subsequently also antigen and rapid tests deliver a high proportion of false-positive results was provided by the rapid test in December.
Since it was considered to be too imprecise, a PCR test was used to retest. And half or more were found to be false positives. Whereby the result of the PCR tests was already pretty accurate, since people were tested where the probability of an infection was already 50% plus / minus.
And according to Bayes’ theorem, with such a high prevalence the false positives rate is low.
In this graph we can now see very clearly what that does to the proportion of those who tested positive. The proportion drops to 0.4%, as we had in May and also in the summer. In other words: the number of infections has decreased drastically.
According to research by the mathematician Ben Israel from spring 2020, a wave of infections takes around 70 days to expire. This is exactly what happened in Austria from the beginning of October to around mid-December. The second wave is over, right after the textbook.
The lockdown that the government has pressed on us, including the extension, contradicts any evidence and is pure harassment. And on top of that the harmful FFP2 masks.
More at tkp.at
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