Coronavirus – A perspective from Britain Part 18

Written by Andy Rowlands on January 8, 2021. Posted in Current News

Before we delve into the nitty gritty of this final round up of our Covid perspective from Britain take a moment or two to comprehend the irony of this recent photo above. and understand why mainstream ‘journalists’ no longer are doing journalism. This is why factual articles like the one below are needed more than ever.

The above chart is from the BBC virus webpage for the number of new cases in the UK up to December 31^st The large spikes on the 30^th and 31^st are largely due to lack of reporting over Christmas.

On the 14^th, there was a debate in Parliament prompted by a petition signed by the requisite amount of the public. The debate was to get answers as to whether there will be sanctions against anyone who chooses not to have the vaccine. All those present stated there are no plans to create vaccine passports, and no plans to punish those who refuse a vaccine. All said they are urging employers, shops & businesses not to discriminate against vaccine refusers.

Interestingly, they said Quantas appears to be the only airline demanding vaccination to fly.

On the 17^th, the Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced a large expansion of the highest-level tier three restrictions in the south east to cover Bedfordshire, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire as well as most of Surrey. London and parts of Essex & Hertfordshire moved into tier 3 because of an exponential rise in cases in some areas.

The same day, the BBC webpage new case chart showed a massive spike of 35,000 new cases, which they later said was due to ‘11,000 previously unreported cases in Wales which were omitted due to system maintenance’.

On the 18^th, the World Health Organization urged everyone to stay home over Christmas and avoid seeing your family because it is ‘not worth the risk‘ of getting Covid.

It can be seen here:www.dailymail.co.uk

Also on the 18^th, there were rumours in the media of a third lockdown after Christmas, which can be seen here:

www.dailymail.co.uk

On the 19^th – People in London and large parts of the South-East were told they can kiss goodbye to Christmas, after having draconian restrictions placed on them, including being told to stay at home on Christmas Day. The rest of England had their ‘allowance’ of visiting relatives slashed from five days to one.

Cue more job losses, more companies closing permanently, more people out of work, more mental health issues and more suicides.

Metropolitan Police Federation boss Ken Marsh said the Police ‘won’t be knocking on people’s doors on Christmas Day‘ as he described the Tier 4 restrictions as ‘baffling‘ amid concerns over how they will be enforced.

Mr Marsh told MailOnline the new rules – which close non-essential retail and ban overnight stays in infection spots – meant little, because ‘Mr Johnson has lost the good will of the people‘ over the festive period.

The same day, the whole of Wales was placed under lockdown from midnight, and Scotland moved to its toughest tier four on Boxing Day.

On the 20^th – Matt Hancock today warned the new mutant strain of coronavirus is ‘out of control’ as he suggested draconian Tier 4 restrictions could be in place ‘until we have the vaccine rolled out’, and the UK overtook Turkey to take 6^th place by cases according to Worldometer.

He said people in Tier 4 areas should behave as if they are infected in order to combat the new variant of the disease which spreads quicker than its predecessor.

The move sparked anger among Conservative MPs who have opposed the Government’s coronavirus strategy.

Tory MPs claimed the constantly changing approach to tackling the disease should result in ministers stepping down and said the Government must publish a “clear exit strategy from this nightmarish, cycle of damaging lockdowns and restrictions”.

Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs, said “Lockdowns and increasingly severe tiered restrictions have failed in their goal of slowing the transmission of Covid. And now the Government is expecting people to sacrifice the chance to share Christmas with family, friends and loved ones, just a few days after promising the opposite.

If the Government wants the support of the public and Parliament, it must publish a clear exit strategy from this nightmarish cycle of damaging lockdowns and restrictions.” (Emphasis added)

On the 21^st, the BBC virus webpage stated more than 40 countries have banned arrivals from the UK because of concerns over the spread of a new variant of the disease.

On the 23^rd, the BBC virus webpage noted Although the new variant of coronavirus is now spreading more rapidly than the original version, it is not believed to be more deadly.

It was initially said to be 70% more infectious, then a few days later, the figure had dropped to 54%, and will probably drop again.

The same day, it was announced the whole of East Anglia and other parts of the south east as far as the Isle of Wight will be placed into the new tier 4 on the 26^th. This tier has a ‘stay at home’ order.

On the 24^th, it was reported the PM had suggested a third lockdown, this time with the whole of the UK put into the new tier 4, would be required for the whole of January, even though it has been comprehensively proven in the UK that lockdowns do not work. This will require the entire population to be told to remain in their houses except for food shopping & emergencies, and other fearmongering from various sources said the first half of 2021 could see even higher rates of infection and death than in 2020.

Northern Ireland also moved into a new six-week lockdown on Boxing Day.

Also on the 26^th, an article in the Daily Express revealed many scientists were surprised the PM decided to cancel Christmas, as they said that was NOT their advice to him.

It says in part: Boris Johnson justified his decision to bring in more restrictions last weekend – which led to millions having to cancel Christmas and more the 40 countries closing their borders to the UK – on findings from Nervtag, the group that looks at new viral threats. But sources with knowledge of the meeting insist most of its members made no recommendations on restrictions, instead suggesting more research was needed to understand the true risk. Minutes of the meetings back up this claim.

One insider said they believed forceful lobbying by a small number of experts pushed the government into the action, despite the fact most of the Nervtag members had not called for it.

“Nervtag unanimously did not say anything about new restrictions. It was more that pressure was made on the chair to take a line when he took the report to the government chief medical officer. Something happened between the Nervtag meeting and the presentation that changed the outcome.”

They suggested that the new strain gave pro-lockdown scientists the opportunity to lobby for tighter restrictions as well as allowing the government to defend a reversal of its controversial relaxation of Christmas rules. (Emphasis added in all paragraphs)

It can be seen here: www.express.co.uk

On the 28^th, it was announced the SAGE group is ‘demanding’ ALL schools should be shut until February.

The teaching unions reportedly want all schools shut for a fortnight to allow for testing, though some claim it could take much longer.

Parents and Ofsted are reporting concerns that children are being set back ‘years’ because of ‘sub-standard’ online learning.

Also on the 28^th, rumours were floating around that the government will be advised to increase restrictions even higher than tier 4 in the new year.

The same day, Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director at Public Health England, said: “This very high level of infection is of growing concern at a time when our hospitals are at their most vulnerable.”

Hospitals are at their most vulnerable every winter, and this year it’s been made much worse by people NHS staff being told to self-isolate when there is absolutely no need for it.

On the 29^th, The Sun reported that the traditional New Year’s Eve celebration of hugging and kissing is being strongly discouraged by the government, unless those people are in your support bubble. Having a celebratory drink in the pub at midnight is now not possible, as pubs have been told to close at 11pm.

On the 30^th, rumours were abounding that schools will remain closed for weeks yet, and some may stay closed indefinitely, and it seems the Irish Prime Minister Michael Martin has put the entire country into another lockdown for at least the whole of January.

It was also announced on the 30^th that as from midnight, virtually the whole of the UK, apart from parts of the North East, Devon & Cornwall, would be placed into Tier 4, which according to the BBC virus webpage, carries a ‘Stay at home’ order.

This is the chart for new cases in Birmingham and Solihull to December 31^st.

I have included the spikes in cases in this chart, which usually appear on a Monday, following lack of reporting at weekends. The large spike on the 28^th is because of little or no reporting over Christmas.

The number of people who have died from the virus in Birmingham since March, according to official figures, is 1698, and for Solihull it is 366. This is up to Dec 18^th.

These numbers, the BBC virus webpage says, are only for those deaths were the virus is mentioned on the death certificate. This does not mean the virus killed them, it simply means they either tested positive, or were suspected of being positive, even if they were not tested.

The R number

On the 9^th October, the R number was showing as 1.2-1.5. By the 18^th, it had changed to 1.3-1.5. Surprisingly, on the 23^rd, it had reduced slightly to 1.2-1.4. By the 31^st, it had dropped to 1.1-1.3, and by the 13^th November had dropped again to 1-1.2, by the 30^th had dropped to 0.9-1, by the 4^th December it had dropped to 0.8-1, and by December 15^th had risen slightly again to 0.9-1, rose again to 1-1.2 by the 18^th, and by the 31^st had risen again to 1.1-1.3, as shown below.

According to Worldometer, the number of people in hospital in critical condition in the UK had risen to 978 by the 31^st October, and risen again to 1355 by November 15^th, to 1417 on the 30^th. In late November it started to fall; to 1351 by December 2^nd, to 1315 on the 3^rd, had fallen to 1243 on the 10^th, and increased to 1288 by the 15^th, to 1340 by the 17^th, to1364 by the 19^th, to 1529 by the 22^nd and by the 30^th had reached 1847, topping the 1559 I recorded at the height of the first wave.

This is the chart for UK deaths up to December 31^st.

The large spike in deaths on the 29^th & 30^th is largely due to lack of reporting over Christmas.

The BBC virus webpage has changed the wording for deaths, to now read ‘coronavirus-related deaths’, which includes people suspected of having died from the virus, even if they were not tested.

The five-year average

The graphic below shows the five-year average of UK deaths to 31^st December, and we see as with every other year, once colder weather gets here, deaths start to rise. However, they are at present above ‘normal’ for this time of year.

According to Worldometer, the number of active cases worldwide as of December 31^st stands at 22.6 million. Of those, 22.5 million are mild, with just 106,000 classed as serious / critical. In the UK, we have 2.48 million total cases, with 1847 classed as serious / critical.

Hospital admissions

This illustration is a sum of all UK hospital admissions up to December 31^st.

The oft-repeated claim that we should constantly be cleaning surfaces seems to have been quietly dropped, as it has now been realised the virus cannot live on surfaces for hours or days as had been claimed. The obsession with extreme cleanliness is also counter-productive, especially if an anti-bacterial handwash is used, as without exposure to germs and bacteria, our immune systems start to suffer.

Going by what I have written, it looks like we should expect more draconian restrictions for much of next year, more business closures, more redundancies, more mental health issues, more suicides, and I would not be surprised if we saw some kind of significant civil unrest as well.

As this series of articles is seeing fewer responses now, this will be my last fortnightly report, and from now on, I will submit articles on specific subjects.

About the author: Andy Rowlands is a British Principia Scientific International researcher, writer and editor who co-edited the new climate science book, ‘The Sky Dragon Slayers: Victory Lap‘

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