The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations
Most of the alien civilizations that ever dotted our galaxy have probably killed themselves off already.That’s the takeaway of a new study, published Dec. 14 to the arXiv database, which used modern astronomy and statistical modeling to map the emergence and death of intelligent life in time and space across the Milky Way.
Their results amount to a more precise 2020 update of a famous equation that Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence founder Frank Drake wrote in 1961. The Drake equation, popularized by physicist Carl Sagan in his “Cosmos” miniseries, relied on a number of mystery variables — like the prevalence of planets in the universe, then an open question.
This new paper, authored by three Caltech physicists and one high school student, is much more practical. It says where and when life is most likely to occur in the Milky Way, and identifies the most important factor affecting its prevalence: intelligent creatures’ tendency toward self-annihilation.
“Since Carl Sagan’s time, there’s been lots of research,” said study co-author Jonathan H. Jiang, an astrophysicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech. “Especially since the Hubble Space Telescope and Kepler Space Telescope, we have lots of knowledge about the densities [of gas and stars] in the Milky Way galaxy and star formation rates and exoplanet formation … and the occurrence rate of supernova explosions. We actually know some of the numbers [that were mysteries at the time of the famous ‘Cosmos’ episode].”
The authors looked at a range of factors presumed to influence the development of intelligent life, such as the prevalence of sunlike stars harboring Earth-like planets; the frequency of deadly, radiation-blasting supernovas; the probability of and time necessary for intelligent life to evolve if conditions are right; and the possible tendency of advanced civilizations to destroy themselves.
Modeling the evolution of the Milky Way over time with those factors in mind, they found that the probability of life emerging based on known factors peaked about 13,000 light-years from the galactic center and 8 billion years after the galaxy formed. Earth, by comparison, is about 25,000 light-years from the galactic center, and human civilization arose on the planet’s surface about 13.5 billion years after the Milky Way formed (though simple life emerged soon after the planet formed.)
In other words, we’re likely a frontier civilization in terms of galactic geography and relative latecomers to the self-aware Milky Way inhabitant scene. But, assuming life does arise reasonably often and eventually becomes intelligent, there are probably other civilizations out there — mostly clustered around that 13,000-light-year band, mostly due to the prevalence of sunlike stars there.
Most of these other civilizations that still exist in the galaxy today are likely young, due to the probability that intelligent life is fairly likely to eradicate itself over long timescales. Even if the galaxy reached its civilizational peak more than 5 billion years ago, most of the civilizations that were around then have likely self-annihilated, the researchers found .
This last bit is the most uncertain variable in the paper; how often do civilizations kill themselves? But it’s also the most important in determining how widespread civilization is, the researchers found. Even an extraordinarily low chance of a given civilization wiping itself out in any given century — say, via nuclear holocaust or runaway climate change — would mean that the overwhelming majority of peak Milky Way civilizations are already gone.
The paper has been submitted to a journal for publication and is awaiting peer review.
Read more at www.livescience.com
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Herb Rose
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It is the fact that postulates like this, that are based on guesses, fantasies, and unbridled speculation with no evidence or science supporting them, are even being considered seriously raises the question; Does intelligent l8fe exist on Earth?
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Arthur Dent
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My latest edition of the Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy advises that humans are “Mostly stupid, but not as stupid as the Krausians of Planet Moron.”
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MattH
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Hi Arthur. Your comment is both unfortunate and pathetic.
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John Doran
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An intriguing book by genius journalist Jim Marrs, RIP:
Our Occulted History, Do the Global Elite Conceal Ancient Aliens.
Based in part on Sumerian clay tablets, & partly on modern science, a most enjoyable read. Occulted is in the sense of deliberately hidden.
JD.
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JaKo
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Combining Herb’s and John’s comments could implies a question:
What is this “intelligent life?”
And an attempt to answer it:
As a bare minimum: Is being self-aware and communicative enough?
Or the other extreme: Is becoming a god the ultimate purpose of evolution?
Both commentators before me recognized that something is hindering us. Herb sees the obstacles within while John points to the others (i.e. World’s Deep State); I think they’re both right and it seems we have a long way before we can call ourselves something in between.
Cheers, JaKo
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Mark Tapley
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The astronomers are still looking for life in outer space similar to the evolutionists quest for the missing link. Both search in vain. The Bible tells us that the stars, like the sand are innumerable.
The further they probe the more there is of the same infinite universe. The evolutionists have an advantage because they can always spin another story like Lucy, the Pilt Down Man, Java man, chicken feathers reported to be from dinosaurs or another pig tooth from primitive man. The Astronomers just have the abyss. Why gaze at the universe in vain. They should just do like Bill Gates and Fauci. If you need a fake virus create one and if you need life in the outer void, “discover it.”
No longer do they need cobbled together orbiters and landing modules that look like something from the kids back yard jr, high project or Kubrick’s antiquated front screen projection. With the proper MSM hype (like with the fake virus). all the goyim would be hopping around waving the flag of Jewmerica as the astronauts (must be LGBTQ trannies) land on Mars and give a speech about multiculturalism, equality and discrimination.
As time goes on, the Darwinians have become quaint relics of the 19th century facing the stark realities of DNA, the truth about the hoped for grasp at mutation and now the insurmountable fact of information coding in every cell of all living organisms. The same fate awaits the star gazers. There is nothing out there. All of you will just be looking.
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Marius Simonot
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keep trying. one day you will be a writer
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Ana BANANA
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‘Even an extraordinarily low chance of a given civilization wiping itself out in any given century — say, via nuclear holocaust or runaway climate change ‘…
Another research paper that wants to plant in your mind that:-
1 – Climate Change aka Global Warming is the equivalent of the Nuclear Holocaust
2- Climate Change aka Global Warming will eventually wipe us out unless we do something drastic
3 – Destruction is associated with inteligence unless the ‘wise selected few’ that see that see the big picture will rule us all.
The research paper is as much fantasy, as are the problems they imply. Heaps money are now directed to shape your brain. Wake up.
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