Analysis: Heatwaves Are LESS Frequent And Severe
Heatwaves during recent decades remain far less frequent and severe than was the case during the 1930s – nearly 100 years of global warming ago, reports a new topical summary at the website Climate at a Glance.
When climate alarmists react to annual summer heatwaves by claiming they are being caused by global warming, people interested in the truth now have a concise, compelling source for rebuttal.
According to Climate at a Glance: U.S. Heatwaves, a majority of each state’s all-time high-temperature records were set during the first half of the 20th century – approximately 100 years of global warming ago.
Also, the most accurate nationwide temperature station network, implemented in 2005, shows no sustained increase in daily high temperatures in the United States since at least 2005.
Heatwaves have always been a natural part of the American climate. Global warming will not put an end to heatwaves. However, global warming is not making heatwaves much worse, either, if at all.
That is because the lion’s share of the Earth’s modest warming occurs during winter, at night, and closer to the poles.
The graph below illustrates how heatwaves were much more frequent and severe during the 1930s. Also, data show recent heatwaves are well within historically typical ranges.
Like all other aspects of the well-funded Climate Delusion, claims that global warming is causing more frequent and severe heatwaves wilt under the heat of scientific scrutiny.
Read more at Climate Realism
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Koen Vogel
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Thanks for sharing this; very interesting. You rightly point out that Climate Alarmists – usually non-scientists who don’t understand what they are talking about – are making relatively unsupported claims. The IPCC reports (e.g. Vol. 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change) are wishy-washy on the subject: “It is likely that human influence has substantially increased the probability of occurrence of heatwaves in some locations.” Which locations? And how much is “substantially”? If you remove the “human influence” from the statement I could probably agree: somewhere on this planet is probably experiencing an abnormal number of heatwaves. There might be some ambiguity in how the heatwaves are defined by NOAA, as they refer to an average temperature that is expected to occur once every 10 years based on the “historical record”, which could mean only the preceding years or the full historical record. Looking at the source, it appears all data refer to the full historical record, i.e. the 1930’s showed record heatwaves when compared to the 1880-2020 record (though I may be mistaken). 1880-1929 were globally relatively cold years, with temperature anomalies below 0 (i.e. below the 1951-1980 average temperature). During the 1930’s, the anomalies shifted into positive territory: from -0.16 (1930) to 0.13 (1940) (source: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). My PROM article associates this with a heating of the world’s oceans due to increase in geomagnetic variability, though there is no direct evidence to support this, as the reliable ocean energy records only start around 1955. Gouretski et al., 2012 do report a heating of the oceans between 1900-1940. The lack of heatwaves in the ’60s corresponds to a period when the global upper ocean heat content hit a relative low, so there does seem to be a measure of correlation. It’s therefore strange and exceptional that the US does not have more heatwaves, as the world’s oceans are currently heating up. I expect you are correct in assuming that towards the poles there are currently more heatwaves (e.g. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-arctic-sea-ice-crossing/), while the US suffered more during the 1900-1940 warming period. In any case the data support your claim: there is no need for alarm (in the US).
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Koen Vogel
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Sorry, a small correction to my previous comment. “towards the poles” should read “towards the North Pole”, as the current global warming event seems to mainly be a Northern Hemisphere affair.
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