California, NEW M5.0 Earthquake at Ridgecrest: They had a 5 day warning
Are we at the dawn of an important moment in earthquake prediction?
In a fascinating new Youtube video broadcast earthquake researcher and forecaster,’Dutchseince’ claims credit for correctly predicting the magnitude 5.0 quake that hit Ridgequest, California yesterday.
August 22, 2019: The warnings for a new M5.0 earthquake in Ridgecrest were issued multiple days prior to this new M5.0 event. Search videos for this week (mid august 2019) to hear all the different times this coming M5.0 was talked about. https://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsin… Step by step instructions HOW TO FORECAST AN EARTHQUAKE – along with the fundamental principles behind each concept: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txQFn…
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Joseph Olson
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I’ve been following Dutch for several years, he has remarkable predictions with increasing accuracy. Unfortunately, it seems the epicenter for events is North of New Zealand. Dutch then traces across globe, east to Europe, then back to NZ and up to Japan. By the time he gets to the US you’ve watched an hour of earthquakes, and related volcanic events. Interesting USGS and the UNI monopoly are stonewalling potential warning breakthroughs.
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Martin
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I have been following “Dutch also for about 2 years. His basic hypothesis is that the forces generated in deep earthquakes at identified locations result in forces at the surface that propagate like standing waves along the continental craton margins with roughly equally spaced peaks where an earthquake is likely to happen and directly across the oceanic plates so a big quake on the west Pacific plate will “push on the east Pacific side of the plate causing corresponding earthquakes
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Martin
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His method does not predict the deep earthquakes (except in a generalization of being in a period of high or low activity) but the subsequent distribution of the force around the globe to areas that appear to absorb it. I should add his percentage accuracy appears to be surprisingly high given the multitude of variables that potentially can contribute to the onset of an event. I would love to see a true statistical study done of his predictions. The standard narrative is that ” at this time, earthquakes cannot be predicted and certainly not by some charlatan on the internet” ” Dutch” is consistently seriously challenging that narrative. If anyone out there is looking for a study on earthquakes and is good with statistical analysis I could not think of a better focus. If his concepts can be quantified in a formalized way we may all end up winners.
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jerry krause
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Hi Martin,
Thank you for your comments. I knew nothing about Dutchseince and his predictions until this posting and I do not claim to understand the mechanisms of quakes except for the fact we can observe their happenings. Tough to ignore their happenings when they occur.
But I naively accept the validity of your statement: “His method does not predict the deep earthquakes (except in a generalization of being in a period of high or low activity) but the subsequent distribution of the force around the globe to areas that appear to absorb it.”
I am not familiar with youtube.com so when I went to the links I only found a multitude of videos of which I was not certain which I needed to watch to see what the actual prediction was. Your comment implies that maybe his prediction of specific earthquakes is not much better than the several (many?)weather forecasters who confidently predicted (based on their models) one-half inch of rainfall for a relatively large area the other day and there not specific location in that relatively large area that received precipitation anywhere close to this prediction.
If one observes the topography of the earths surface it becomes obvious that during the history of the earth that many ‘big’ earthquakes have had to have occurred and there seem to be no evidence that they should suddenly cease to occur.
Thank you again for giving Dutchseince’s predictions, based upon his understandings (theories), some realistic perspective.
Have a good day, Jerry
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Martin
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From watching his youtube videos and specifically his Sunday forecasts i would say that his location and magnitude forecast ranges appear to be better than your hypothetical weatherman scenario. Yes, it could be simply the scatter gun approach where you throw a hand full of darts at the balloon and one of them gets lucky but I am not so sure this is what we are seeing in this case. My gut is not a calculator. Hence, the suggestion for a statistical study. “IF” it showed better than chance results then his theories and methods could merit deeper investigation. Isn’t that what “scientific inquiry” is supposed to be about after all.
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