Western Pacific Cyclone Frequency And Intensity Continue To Decline
Another human-caused global warming modeling failure emerges in observed tropical cyclone data
According to climate modeling (Knutson et al., 2015 and 2020), everyday human activities such as driving cars and using cell phones (AGW) should lead to increases in tropical cyclone (TC) landfall frequency and intensity (i.e., accumulated cyclone energy [ACE] or maximum wind speeds).
These computer models are programmed to reach this conclusion of course, so we should not be surprised when this is what they predict.
Instead, 45 years of satellite observations (Bell et al., 2026) indicate declining TC frequency trends over the Western North Pacific (WNP), which includes the Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Micronesia, as well as a weak decline (-7.6 ACE units per decade) in TC intensity for the WNP.
“Landfall trends over individual nations are insignificant, but significant decreases are noted for the northern Philippines and parts of Micronesia, including for intense (> 33 m s-¹).”
“TC frequency across the region has been declining, linked to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation…as well as projected decreases in straight-moving TCs (i.e., those making landfall in southern China and the Philippines.”
“After removing the effect of ENSO [natural variability]…downward trend of 7.6 ACE units per decade-¹ for [the entire WNP].”
As the late Dr Tim Ball repeatedly said; in a warmer world you get LESS bad weather not more.
This is easy to see for yourself. Think about which season has the worst weather; summer or winter?
Dr Ball said storms are created because of the temperature difference between the cold polar air, and the warm equatorial air. This causes storms to form along the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.
As the world warms, the polar regions warm faster than the equator, so that temperature difference is reduced.
This reduced temperature difference means fewer storms are created, and those that do form are less intense.
Exactly the opposite of what politicians and the media would have you believe.
See more here climatechangedispatch
Header image: Ryan Maue