How Did The Year 2000 Prediction Of The End Of Snow Hold Up?
How a confident year 2000 forecast about vanishing snowfall compares to what actually happened
On March 20, 2000, The Independent published a striking headline that would become one of climate science’s most quotable predictions: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.”
The article featured Dr. David Viner from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, who made a bold forecast: within just a few years, snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event.”
It should not be forgotten that the CRU is the organisation that colluded with the fraudster Michael Mann to ‘hide the decline’ in global temperatures, in the scandal that became known as ‘Climategate’ – Ed
The report went further, claiming that “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
It was a clear, confident prediction about our climate future. So what actually happened?
What the Data Shows
Let’s start with the Northern Hemisphere snow extent data covering November through April, measured from the 1960s through the 2012-13 winter season.
The measurements reveal snow extent fluctuating between approximately 38.0 and 42.0 million square kilometers throughout this period. Rather than showing a declining trend, the data demonstrates considerable year-to-year variability with a cyclical pattern.
Most notably, the record coverage occurred in 2012-13, the highest snow extent in the entire measurement period.
Fast forward to more recent measurements, and the picture becomes even more intriguing.
Record Snow in Recent Years
By the end of November in recent years, Northern Hemisphere snow extent has reached levels among the highest recorded in 56 years of systematic measurement.
Current data shows snow extent running consistently higher than historical averages – a stark contrast to predictions of disappearing snow.
November 2022 provides a particularly clear example. That month, Northern Hemisphere snow extent reached approximately 41 million square kilometers according to NOAA / Rutgers Global Snow Lab data.
The visualization of weekly snow cover extent for the 2022-2023 winter season shows measurements significantly exceeding both the historical mean (marked by the gray dashed line) and often approaching or exceeding the historical maximum (blue line) rather than trending toward the minimum (orange line).
These extensive snow coverage levels have real-world implications for winter forecasts, particularly in Europe, where such measurements serve as important parameters for seasonal prediction models.
The Reality
Today’s children are not growing up in a snow-free world. They’re experiencing snow in abundance, engaging in the same winter activities generations before them enjoyed. The empirical reality stands in direct contradiction to the confident forecasts made two decades ago.
When dramatic forecasts made with certainty don’t match what subsequently happens in the real world, it raises necessary questions about our forecasting methods, our confidence levels, and our ability to project complex climate systems decades into the future.
The contrast between the 2000 prediction and measured outcomes illustrates several key points:
- First, climate systems exhibit natural variability that can dwarf or mask longer-term trends over multi-decade timescales. The cyclical patterns visible in the snow extent data demonstrate this complexity.
- Second, confident short-term predictions (within “a few years”) about climate phenomena have proven remarkably difficult to get right. The snow hasn’t disappeared; in fact, recent measurements show it at near-record levels.
- Third, and perhaps most importantly, actual observational data must remain our primary guide. When predictions diverge significantly from measurements, the measurements win. That’s how science is supposed to work.
None of this makes climate science invalid or unnecessary. It does, however, remind us to maintain appropriate humility about our ability to forecast complex systems far into the future and to remain skeptical of dramatic predictions that don’t align with what we can observe and measure.
And it should not be forgotten virtually the entire UK was blanketed in snow during the winter of 2011.
The snow, it turns out, didn’t get the memo about disappearing. Our children still know exactly what it is.
See more here substack.com
Header image: the snow outside my house in March 2018
Bold emphasis added