UK Govt Advisor: Heat Pumps May Not Save People Money

I don’t know why it took them so long to work it out!

The Telegraph reports:

Heat pumps are not guaranteed to save households money in the long-term, the Government’s chief scientific adviser has conceded.

A meeting chaired by Professor Dame Angela McLean found it was “not currently clear” if heat pumps were cheaper to run than a traditional gas boiler.

The revelation comes amid Ed Miliband’s push for homes to switch to low-carbon heating as part of a drive to reach net zero.

Heat pumps, which can cost up to £13,000 to install, are the backbone of the Government’s green agenda, despite concerns they can negatively impact a property’s EPC score, which can make mortgages more expensive.

Minutes from a roundtable discussion chaired by Prof McLean in January were published by the Office for Science on Wednesday.

The report cited heat pumps as “a major financial decision and long-term commitment,” adding “it is not currently clear that heat pumps will save people money”.

The meeting, attended by climate minister Kerry McCarthy, was held with the ambition “to provide accessible science advice for policymakers”.

It cited a 2023 study by Polish academic Agnieszka Kijo-Kleczkowska, which found the shortest payback time for a heat pump, together with solar panels, was 11 years and six months. It noted this would be “unacceptably long to many”.

Households can still claim grants worth up to £7,500 for the installation of a heat pump, and Labour is looking at expanding grants to include different types of models such as “air-to-air” heat pumps, which can also function as air conditioning.

Richard Tice, Reform UK deputy leader, said: “Another net zero policy unravels as heat pumps are shown to be an expensive con. People have been deliberately wronged in another major mis-selling scandal.”

Even with a grant, a typical heat pump costs £13,000 to install – and according to YouGov polling, most households are reluctant to pay an additional £5,500 themselves.

Findings from the meeting state that public perception of heat pumps is “fragile”. A separate government report published last week found that public acceptance of heat pumps has slumped this year.

Around half of people are “not very or not at all likely” to install either an air source heat pump or ground source pump, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (Desnz).

Mike Foster, of the Energy and Utilities Alliance, said: “Apart from the high initial cost of fitting a heat pump, consumers using a standard tariff face higher running bills than a gas boiler too. It should not be a surprise to find that asking consumers to pay more for the same service, heating a home, is not a popular option. Something needs to change.”

The Government said the findings from the roundtable discussion chaired by Prof McLean “are not statements of government policy”. They instead represent the combined views of roundtable participants.

The report was published as Mr Miliband was forced to back down from plans to impose regional electricity pricing on Britain, which some feared would have left households in the south facing higher bills.

A spokesman for Desnz said: “The British people are showing record demand for heat pumps, which enable families to save around £100 a year by using a smart tariff.

“We are supporting industry to develop financing models that can remove the upfront cost entirely, and consulting on new approaches, such as heat pump subscriptions, to help more households make the switch to cleaner heating in a way that works for them.

“And we are stepping up support through our Warm Homes Plan, which will help make homes cheaper and cleaner to run with upgrades from new insulation to solar panels and heat pumps.”

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